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CU Guru [1279]
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NCAA Not an Option
Feb 19, 2020, 5:59 AM
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Some people here seem to hold on to the idea of how we can make the NCAA tournament, That is not realistic and it never should have been this year. If we can somehow win 3 of the final 5 and lose the first round game and finish 16-15 we "might" be able to squeeze into the NIT if there are no major upsets in the mid-level tournaments. Winning any of the remaining games is certainly not easy or should be counted on. Some of you people don't realize this year is a RESET year ! We were not even supposed to be as good as we have been. In fact BB should be Conference Coach of the Year for what this team has already done if we don't win another game. I'd love to get into the NIT but stop this NCAA speculation folks. That AIN"T gonna happen.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: NCAA Not an Option
Feb 19, 2020, 6:11 AM
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It's highly unlikely, but there is still reason to hope. As you alluded to, that is more than was expected for this time of the year. Will it be tough? Yes. Will we win the games that we need to to make it? Probably not. Are we still in this and is the NCAA still an option at this time? Most definitely, YES.
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All-TigerNet [12879]
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Re: NCAA Not an Option
Feb 19, 2020, 10:39 AM
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It's an option alright. Winning the ACC tournament. That's an option.
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Orange Blooded [4754]
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Re: NCAA Not an Option
Feb 19, 2020, 7:00 AM
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I disagree with your second sentence.
Making the NCAA tournament should be an expected goal for Clemson basketball EVERY year. CBB has been here 10 seasons so it's all on him and his staff for the roster he has. NIT is a fall back goal only.
I feel DRad will have CBB back next year for sure. However if Clemson fails to make the NCAA tournament at the end of the 20-21 season then a needed change will likely happen.
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Team Captain [466]
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That’s simply rediculous, unless you’re a program
Feb 19, 2020, 9:11 AM
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like Duke and Kentucky you’re gonna have an off year just because certain years you will be forced to play with severely inexperienced players. And quite honestly an off year for Clemson is much worse than the one we are having so far.
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CU Guru [1260]
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wait, so a reset year at Clemson is not making any tournament or
Feb 19, 2020, 10:27 AM
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is an NIT bid too much to ask in year 10, "reset" year or not?
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All-In [40938]
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Orange Blooded [2287]
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Re: NCAA Not an Option
Feb 19, 2020, 7:05 AM
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"We were not even supposed to be as good as we have been. In fact BB should be Conference Coach of the Year for what this team has already done if we don't win another game."
I have heard his several times in the past few days. Facts are if we didn't win another game, we would likely be finishing around 12-13th in the conference after being picked to finish 11th at ACC Media Days.
Odds are we will win 2-3 more games this year and finish somewhere between 8-11 in the conference. Pretty much where we were predicted to finish. Slightly better than predicted possibly, mainly because UNC is sooooo bad.
The 2 big wins against top 5 teams and winning at UNC are nice highlights to what will likely be an otherwise forgettable season. Brownell has probably done enough to get another year yet again. But, let's please stop saying this is a Coach of the Year worthy accomplishment!
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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How many more times are you going to spew this same
Feb 19, 2020, 8:05 AM
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boring crap? Nobody on this message board had grand expectations of making the tournament heading into this year. Nobody even had them at the end of December with a brutal stretch of games coming in January. So you can keep rolling out this bad take over and over and over if you want to, but you're way off base.
Also, to say that the NCAA tournament "never should have been" realistic this year is complete bullshyatt. We're 13-12 with 5 games left. We have two huge wins on our resume. If we had just won the Wake and Notre Dame games (or pick 2 other losses like Miami and Yale) we would be chasing a tournament invite right now.
So yeah, you're wrong on every level every time you make this post, which seems to be at least once a day.
Message was edited by: GWPTiger®
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Heisman Winner [140604]
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I'm not even going to dignify this post with a response.
Feb 19, 2020, 8:14 AM
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$%#&
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All-In [44055]
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Well, it actually is an option this year.
Feb 19, 2020, 10:55 AM
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We could win the ACC Tournament and get an automatic bid. It isn't likely, but it could happen.
I also believe that we would at least be a bubble/fringe bubble team if we win the rest of our regular season games and perhaps 1 or 2 in the ACC Tournament. Our NET wouldn't be top 40 in that scenario, but we would be one of the hottest teams in the country and the committee would have to consider our resume. Several teams last year got in with sub-40 NETs if I remember correctly.
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Trainer [27]
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Re: Well, it actually is an option this year.
Feb 19, 2020, 12:16 PM
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Again... I'll preface this by saying that I believe an NCAAT bid is pretty unlikely (I would say <10%)... I believe it will take a fairly herculean finish... something in the neighborhood of a 5-0 finish with at least one in Greensboro... or a 4-1 finish with at least two in Greensboro... And that is just to be in the conversation on Selection Sunday... all that being said,
People are really misrepresenting the intent of the NET system. It was never a tool created for the sole purpose of ranking teams by which to make at-large selections... The intent of the tool was ALWAYS to group teams into Quadrants to determine who you beat, and who you suffered losses to. The committee made this crystal clear a year ago... NCSU (33) and Clemson (35) were both left out in favor of teams like Temple (56), Arizona State (63), and St. John's (73) simply based on the number of Q1 and combined Q1/2 wins those teams had as compared to others ranked SIGNIFICANTLY higher... In the case of St. John's, a 5-7 record vs. Q1 was way more favorable than CU's 1-9 record vs. the same quadrant despite being ranked almost 40 spots lower in NET... In essence if you have a high NET with little of note in the significant wins department, you have nothing... Conversely, a mediocre NET combined with a solid number of significant wins gives you a chance.
So let's make some assumptions (notice I'm not saying "predictions" as I believe this scenario to be really unlikely)... Let's assume VT (76) moves up at least one spot in the final NET rankings... Let's assume CU runs the table at 5-0. Let's also assume that outside of VT, no other team we've played moves enough in the final NET rankings to DROP into a lower Quadrant. This is the resume heading to Greensboro:
Overall Record - 18-12 Q1 Record - 4-6 Q1/Q2 Combined Record - 10-11 Bad Losses (non Q1/2) - 1 (Miami) Metric Rankings (NET, Sagarin, Kenpom, KPI, BPI, SOR) - likely range between 40-60
That is a MUCH more solid resume as compared to a year ago when we ranked 35th in NET. If memory serves we were 1-9 vs. Q1, and 7-13 vs. Q2 (if not the exact number, it's really close)...
Would that be enough to get in assuming a 1-1 finish in Greensboro? Not sure... but I can guarantee that we would be in the conversation for one of the final 4-6 spots in the field... And without having looked at, or knowing what other bubble teams would be in that same conversation, I would have to believe 3 Top 10 wins and an 8-2 finish would have to be favorable for us (particularly if the committee considers an injury laden Nov/Dec that saw us play 80% of our games with only 7/8 scholarship players available)... Not to mention a two possession loss late in the season vs. ND without our best player available.
I'm MUCH more focused on ACCT Seeding, and what it will take to finish high enough to avoid playing on Day 1 (I think a 3-2 finish would probably be enough)... IF, and I underscore, IF... we win these next two (@ BC and @ GT) I may allow myself enough belief to actually take a deeper dive into numbers beyond this very preliminary look...
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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That's a very solid analysis and thank you for putting it
Feb 19, 2020, 1:06 PM
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together. One minor edit on your bad losses, there are 2 including Wake who currently has a NET ranking of 103 (2 spots behind 101 Miami).
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Trainer [27]
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Re: That's a very solid analysis and thank you for putting it
Feb 19, 2020, 2:43 PM
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It's a bad loss in the eyes of fans only... From a pure metric standpoint it's a Q2 loss and no different than our home loss to ND. Here is how the Quadrant is determined:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75 Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135 Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240 Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Right now we have two Q3 losses (Miami and VT), however notice in my initial post that VT (76) only needs to finish one spot higher to move the home loss from Q3 to Q2. Likewise a move to 75th would also move our road game in Blacksburg into Q1 status (currently a Q2 game)...
But keep in mind that there are a number of teams that are close enough to those gradients that should they drop in the NET rankings, the Quadrant they fall in could change for the worse... For example, SC is currently 62... Should they finish poorly and fall below 75, that loss would move from Q2 to Q3, and thus be an additional bad loss...
Again... a run to the tourney is really unlikely... But a 5-0 finish and one in Greensboro... or 4-1 and two in Greensboro would have us in the conversation... Would it be enough? Not sure... but would love to find out...
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Thanks for that, I didn't know the quadrants were that
Feb 19, 2020, 4:01 PM
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far apart when looking at home and away. Actually, to be honest I didn't know they were different at all.
You need to post more often!
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All-In [44055]
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This is excellent! Thank you so much!
Feb 19, 2020, 1:30 PM
[ in reply to Re: Well, it actually is an option this year. ] |
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Your explanation of how the NET is used clears up a lot of confusion I've had. I thought it was intended to replace RPI as a way to evaluate resumes. The logic was typically that an RPI of 40 or better was generally a good benchmark for an NCAA Tournament bid. That's why I didn't understand the logic behind teams WAY behind us in NET getting in over us.
It will be interesting to see if this year's committee values quality wins over overall NET ranking like they did last year.
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Trainer [27]
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Re: This is excellent! Thank you so much!
Feb 19, 2020, 2:55 PM
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If you trust bracketologists there are already plenty of examples of teams considered on the bubble with mediocre NET rankings:
Memphis (59) Richmond (52) Indiana (63) Arizona St (50) Mississippi St (53) SC (62)
As well as several more mid-majors in the 40's, that obviously will not have as many Q1 wins given that they likely only have 1-2 opportunities/year given their conference... And those teams also likely play the majority of their games vs. Q3/4 competition, which means their combined Q1/2 list will be light...
Clemson is nowhere near the bubble as of today... If, and again I can't emphasis the word "if" enough... CU manages to win these next three (@ BC, @ GT, and FSU), I will be shocked if you're not seeing the Tigers beginning to pop up in the bubble watch...
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Orange Blooded [4098]
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