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Orange Blooded [3521]
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With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 8:45 AM
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South Carolina's schedule starts off a bit soft before kicking into high gear. North Carolina and Charleston Southern are the first two teams on the docket, and then it's Alabama in Columbia followed by Missouri and Kentucky. Then, after a bye week, the Gamecocks hit the road for Georgia, and follow that up immediately with Florida. They also play another tricky nonconference game against Appalachian State before finishing the season with a road game against Texas A&M and Clemson at home. There have been three programs to reach the College Football Playoff National Championship in the last two seasons, and South Carolina is playing all three of them this year.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2019-sec-strength-of-schedule-rankings-alabama-georgia-headed-down-opposite-paths/
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Legend [15218]
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SEC Least. That schedule is a joke except for Clemson.
May 29, 2019, 9:00 AM
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Bama is decent, but SCar played Clemson closer than Bama played Clemson.
Every other team is pretty terrible. UGA is a huge pretender. A&M sucks.
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Legend [17786]
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This. dont let the media hype teams into what they aren't
May 29, 2019, 9:08 AM
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the SEC is 1-25 against Alabama in the last 3 years. Clemson is 2-1.
The SEC = just a bunch of teams that can't beat Bama, and a few that can, but dont
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Walk-On [127]
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Re: This. dont let the media hype teams into what they aren't
May 29, 2019, 11:10 AM
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This is the greatest thing anyone's ever said about anything
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Orange Blooded [3922]
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110%er [7199]
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All-In [26132]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 9:01 AM
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It is one of the first times they will have a tough schedule. For a team in the SEC, they seldom play the powers of the conference. Alabama, LSU, and Auburn are seldom on their schedule. Don't know how they manage that.
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All-TigerNet [10880]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 9:02 AM
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I guess if you are going to consider App State as "tricky", you can make any schedule look difficult.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 9:02 AM
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When a program is that historically bad so so long, any schedule is likely going to be toasty.
From the Georgia/Bama side, you need those weak teams to no wear out your squad for the CFP
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Legend [16186]
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SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 9:21 AM
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For a team to have aspirations to play big boy football the following lifetime middler teams, down on their luck teams and gimmees have to go into the win column:
Vandy Missouri Kentucky North Carolina Charleston Southern App State Tennessee (ended the 2018 losing to Vandy)
So with 7 'SHOULD WIN' games on the schedule, how can it be a killer? I think too many people buy the SEC is great hype. If the ##### can win two out of FL, Ga, TAMU, Clemson, they should be a 9 game winner. If they fall short of that, it's a little late in his tenure for anyone to be saying "But Coach Muschamp had a tough schedule." Boom is in year 4. He must win 9 games.
Heck if Bama is fatigued or doesn't want to be there or isn't playing like Bama, the Gamecocks ought to win 10!
If you'd told SC that Muschamp would not beat Vandy, Missouri, Kentucky, NC, Charleston Southern and App State in his 4th year, would they have hired him? The answer is obvious.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 9:26 AM
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W - Vandy L - Missouri L - Kentucky W - North Carolina 50/50 Charleston Southern W - App State (new coach, otherwise I would expect an upset) L - Tennessee
So I am sitting 3.5 wins in the "gimmie" but with the coots, there is no such thing as a gimmie.
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110%er [5287]
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110%er [6825]
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Re: SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 10:28 AM
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If Mack was in a second season, I would agree. I don't think they will be a 2 win team but I expect they will have a few issues to work out early.
But when he announced his roster, I was a bit worried.
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All-TigerNet [13042]
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Mack isn't a good coach though - especially at this age
May 29, 2019, 2:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: SC's Schedule ] |
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There's no way you could've listened to him on ESPN the last few years and come to the conclusion that the man can coach. He may well improve UNC, but he's going to do it the way he's always done it - through recruiting. And that's going to take some time. Also, if his staff hires don't pan out they could be a complete disaster, and I'm very skeptical of his pairing of Phil Longo and Jay Bateman.
Army had good total defense numbers last year because they had the #1 TOP offense in the country. Their per play metrics were pretty bad. The Army offense last year masked some big defensive deficiencies simply by keeping their defense off the field.
Some numbers to support this:
Army total defense - 8th at 295.5 YPG Army YPP allowed - 57th at 5.5 YPP Army TOP - 1st at 38 min/game Army DEF S&P+ - 70th
That's pretty respectable for Army, but no huge accomplishment. I certainly didn't think he deserved to be a Broyles Award finalist last year.
And now you are pairing Bateman, who's defense spent an average of 22 min per game on the field in 2018 with Phil Longo who's known for his extremely up-tempo offenses. Ole Miss was 122nd last year in TOP at just 27 min per game meaning Bateman's defense could be on the field 50% longer (33 min vs 22 min) than what he was accustomed to last year at Army. That will wreck those classic defensive stats in a hurry.
We will see, but i feel like Mack Brown hired two coordinators that both have high ceiling but very low floors. If things go bad, they could go realllly bad.
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Orange Blooded [2928]
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Re: SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 10:28 AM
[ in reply to Re: SC's Schedule ] |
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Maybe a joke (in which case, carry on), but can you explain the 50/50 vs 5-6 Charleston Southern?
For what it's worth, I agree with that prediction. 4-3 vs that group and losses to Clemson, UGA, Bama, A&M, and Florida. Could see them pull off a close game with Mizzou, UT, or UK, but I'd be surprised if they win 2 of those 3, which is what they'd need to reach .500
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110%er [6825]
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Re: SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 10:46 AM
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Lojik.
First, see the Citadel example. Coots can't rest on teams from Charleston. Secondly, schedule. Coots are not smart and are likely worried about the beating they will receive in the coming weeks. Finally, I can't give UNC hope. They are more than likely the 50/50 game but why have anyone "win" between "Carolina".
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110%er [5072]
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Re: SC's Schedule
May 29, 2019, 12:22 PM
[ in reply to SC's Schedule ] |
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Say what you want about them, but if a schedule that includes Clemson, Bama, Georgia, A&M, and Florida isn't considered a difficult schedule then what is?
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All-In [27366]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 9:09 AM
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CU Medallion [51335]
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When logic tells you the weakest team in a
May 29, 2019, 10:39 AM
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conference will face more teams better than themselves, therefore having a tougher schedule, why develop a "formula" to determine who has the toughest schedule. Just look at the OOC schedule to see who wanted to play the worst teams when given a choice of who to choose to complete the schedule.
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Orange Blooded [3083]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 11:43 AM
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Clemson, UGA, and Bama are going to be absolute beat downs. A&M will also beat SC. The two most important games on SC's schdule are Kentucky and Tennessee. If SC can't beat KY this year they may never beat them again. As for TN, Muschamp cannot allow Jeremy Pruitt to beat him and move past him in the East in year two.
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CU Guru [1149]
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Anybody who is doubting App St simply hasn't been paying
May 29, 2019, 12:11 PM
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attention to college football for the last many years. The coots lost to the Citadel and some are saying the coots 'should' beat App St?
App St's OL and DL is loaded w/ experienced players, and so is the D backfield. That's a proud program and they love playing the big names (yeah, I know it's SCar, but still...).
Oh, yeah...they don't play until the 10th game of the season. If the coots are demoralized by then, it won't go well for them. And they might foolishly be looking ahead to Texas A&M.
Chas So is the only 'should' win on that schedule. Any other prediction is fools' gold.
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All-TigerNet [13042]
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Yeah they "should" but "should" is kind of vague
May 29, 2019, 12:35 PM
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and open to a bit of interpretation. If Scott Satterfield were still at App i think that game would be more dangerous, but we don't really know if App can sustain that level of play now that he's gone.
I'm guessing SC will be around a 10 point favorite which should put them somewhere in the 75-80% range to win. IMO that still qualifies as a game they "should" win, but it's also a game that they could certainly lose. It's definitely not a gimme.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Anybody who is doubting App St simply hasn't been paying
May 29, 2019, 12:41 PM
[ in reply to Anybody who is doubting App St simply hasn't been paying ] |
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I wouldn't say it's an automatic win, but it's a game they certainly should win. I wouldn't put much stock into The Citadel game when discussing this one(as funny as that was) because it's a different coaching staff with a completely different roster at this point.
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CU Guru [1149]
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And you guys have seen exactly what from this current
May 29, 2019, 1:39 PM
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SCar staff that leads you to believe they're a 'should' win against one of the scrappiest mid majors in America?
Satterfield leaving App St could eventually turn out to be their downfall, but this team was built by him. All Drinkwitz has to do is not screw with the mindset too much. Ted Roof is their DC, and he ain't too shabby.
Granted, Shawn Elliot was coaching the coots when they lost to the Citadel, that was just one more brick in the wall for a program that has a habit of losing games they 'should' win. There's nothing 'should' about this game, especially if you consider my other points about when the game is played. App St will not only believe they can win, they'll expect to win. That's what good programs do.
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All-TigerNet [13042]
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It's at home and SC still has a pretty large talent
May 29, 2019, 1:51 PM
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advantage. App used to have the coaching edge that could possibly negate those other factors, but that's no longer certain now that Satterfield is gone.
We also have differing opinions on Ted Roof. He's a career journeyman who has only had a couple of top 40 defenses (per defensive S&P+) in his entire career. And he had a couple of good jobs where he had talent to work with too. He was at Auburn from 2009-2011 and Penn State in 2012.
South Carolina "should" win this game, but i do give App around a 1/4 or 1/5 chance. It's not crazy to think that they could lose.
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CU Guru [1149]
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K. We'll revisit this, I'm sure, when the time comes.
May 29, 2019, 1:59 PM
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Most people think the coots 'should' beat KY, too.
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All-TigerNet [13042]
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Depends on the year. This year i believe the Coots
May 29, 2019, 2:12 PM
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should beat Kentucky. Last year Kentucky was the better team.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: And you guys have seen exactly what from this current
May 29, 2019, 2:14 PM
[ in reply to And you guys have seen exactly what from this current ] |
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Not saying App State can't win, but South Carolina should win is all I'm saying. I respect their program, but they're still as you said, a mid-major team. They are certainly capable such as taking Penn State to overtime last year, so again, I'm not saying they can't beat South Carolina.
However, they also lost by 20 to Georgia Southern last year. The year before they lost to Wake, by 21 to Georgia, and also lost games to UMass and UL Monroe.
The year before that they lost to Tennessee, and lost by 35 points to Miami. They also lost a game to Troy that season.
The year before that the only P5 team they faced was Clemson and they lost 41-10. They also lost a game to Arkansas State that season.
In fact, they haven't won a game against a P5 team since they moved up to D1, and they haven't beaten any P5 team since their win over Michigan in 2007.
All that coupled with South Carolina having a talent advantage as well as home field is why South Carolina "should" win this game.
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CU Medallion [62175]
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So, are you saying they should be French, and just
May 29, 2019, 12:29 PM
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surrender?
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All-TigerNet [13042]
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I see them finishing somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5
May 29, 2019, 12:52 PM
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They are almost certainly losing to Bama, UGA, and Clemson. It would take a major, major upset for them to win any of those games. They probably aren't going to win in College Station either. Florida will be better than SC next year, but that game is in Columbia so they will have a shot in that one albeit likely still as an underdog. Honestly it's hard to imagine them winning more than 1 of these 5 games.
And there really aren't many gimmes on the schedule. They should certainly beat CSU, and i think they will probably beat UNC and App although neither of those games are locks. I'm also expecting Kentucky to take a huge step back in 2019 after losing almost their entire starting defense so i think SC will end that streak this year at home. They should be good enough to beat Vandy at home. Out of those 5 games i would expect them to win 4 of them.
That puts them around 5-5 with road games at Missouri and Tenn remaining. In my mind these are really the two swing games in their season that will determine whether or not they miss a bowl or squeak in with 6 or 7 wins. Missouri on the road is going to be a tough out and likely the favorite in that one. Will Tennessee be really bad again in Pruitt's 2nd season? I kind of expect them to improve quite a bit which would make that game in Knoxville really tricky as well. Tennessee is #2 in the country in Bill Connelly's returning production stat bringing back 83% of their total production (OFF and DEF) from 2018. The next closest P5 teams are Minnesota and VT at 78% (this was likely done before the latest wave of VT transfers).
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110%er [6403]
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Re: With their 2019 schedule, the Coots are toast
May 29, 2019, 2:19 PM
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Coots are scheduled for a 3:30 beatdown on Sept.14th nationally on CBS
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