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Rock Defender [53]
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How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:09 PM
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Skip to the bottom for the tl;dr summary
Scenario 1:
- Wake beats NC State
- Wake loses to Clemson and BC
- Clemson wins out
- NC State goes 1-1 in remaining conference games
Scenario 1 Results:
- WAKE - 6-2 conference record
- NCSU - 5-3 conference record
- CLEM - 6-2 conference record
- 2 way tie, goes to head to heads
- CLEM defeated WAKE, so CLEM wins the division
Scenario 2:
- Wake loses to NC State
- Wake then loses to Clemson
- Wake beats BC
- Clemson wins out
- NC State goes 0-2 in remaining games
Scenario 2 Results:
- WAKE - 6-2
- NCSU - 5-3
- CLEM - 6-2
- 2 way tie, goes to head to heads.
- CLEM defeated WAKE, CLEM wins the division
Failed Scenarios:
- Wake beats NC State, then loses to Clemson and BC. Clemson and NC State win out. In this scenario, all 3 are tied at 6-2 conference records and head to heads are even against each other (a "rock-paper-scissors" type of scenario). However, the ACC tiebreaker rules then goes to win percentage vs. division. Wake would have 2 division losses, while Clemson and NC State have 1, so they are out. The 2 way tiebreaker rules then apply, in which case NC State has the head to head against Clemson
- If Wake beats NC State and BC, at worst their record is 7-1, which knocks us out
- If Wake loses to NC State and NC State goes 2-0 in their remaining conference games, NC State is 7-1 and thus wins
- If Wake loses to NC State, loses to us, beats BC, and NC State goes 1-1 in their remaining conference games, we're back tied at 6-2. Similar to the above scenario, we go to record vs. division, which again is NCSU and CLEM tied. NCSU wins by virtue of the head to head
- If Wake beats Clemson at all, they're out
TL;DR
- If Wake beats NC State, we need to beat them and then root for BC against Wake
- If Wake loses to NC State, we need to beat them and root for both Syracuse and UNC against NC State
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Athletic Dir [865]
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The winner of the NCST vs WF game has to lose
Nov 12, 2021, 3:12 PM
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the rest of the games this season.
period.
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CU Medallion [57144]
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Re: The winner of the NCST vs WF game has to lose
Nov 12, 2021, 3:42 PM
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Ideally, Wake beats Nancy Tate so Doreen has no chance. Praying for State to lose two more after beating Wake is a waste of time.
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110%er [7131]
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110%er [7191]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:14 PM
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You forgot to add one big huge gigantic thing to both scenarios:
IF!
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:22 PM
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Great analysis! What this really means is that we have two chances - slim and none.
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Orange Blooded [2371]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:32 PM
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And Slim just left town!
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All-In [38121]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:30 PM
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It is NC State and Wake we're talking about, so anything is possible. Those 2 schools have a history of finding a way to screw up in football.
Go Tigers!!!
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Head Coach [789]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 3:56 PM
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How I see it unfolding, NC State loses to Wake. We beat Wake Hartman gets injured during our game and can't go against BC, BC then beats Wake. NC State loses to NC in the rivalry game Sam Howell's last game as a Tarhill goes out on top.
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All-In [38121]
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Re: How Clemson Can Still Win the ACC Atlantic
Nov 12, 2021, 4:48 PM
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And there it is...
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CU Medallion [65471]
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Summary is a lot simpler. We must win out in ACC play.
Nov 12, 2021, 5:10 PM
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Wake has to lose twice in conference, with one of those being to us. That is the only way we control the first tiebreaker.
Nancy's Taint has to lose three times in conference in some fashion. This is the decider. We lose any tiebreaker scenario with them if they only lose two in conference.
Our flickering hopes do flame up if Wake beats the wussies tomorrow. So, root for Doorhen not to be lighting any victory cigars.
Now, as the OP stated, my above scenarios are not the only ones. But, they are the "preferred" ones, if you will.
Although, there would be a certain amount of Karma in play if Nancy's Taint was to beat Wake, and then both them AND Wake lose the rest of their conference games, while we win out and sneak in the side door. Dave the Doo-sh Doeren would probably bash a laptop over his head. 
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110%er [7131]
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Re: Summary is a lot simpler. We must win out in ACC play.
Nov 12, 2021, 8:30 PM
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76er®, you have captured the best (albeit still very slim) chance for us to win the Atlantic.
Wake beats NC State (possible), and the NC State loses at home to UNC (also possible, since UNC is playing better lately).
Wake loses to Clemson (duh ... we all know that must happen for us), and then on the road at a (hopefully 33 degree rainy night in Boston), BC pulls off the upset.
Not quite a 'none and none' chance for us, but darn close to it.
Really zuc_ed that FSU had a bunch of players out with the flu last week when NC State played down in Tallahassee last Saturday. And FSU's mobile QB was out as well. Even with that, FSU put up 14 points and only gave up 28. We'd have had a real shot at ACC Atlantic if FSU hadn't been a hospital ward.
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