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All-In [44050]
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I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 9, 2019, 9:53 PM
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We are 19-12 (9-9), with a top 30 strength of schedule and a NET around 40, yet some of the “experts” think we are one of the last four in or first four out.
That wouldn’t bother me much, except for the fact that these teams are considered firmly in:
Seton Hall 18-12 (9-9), NET in the 60s Georgetown 19-12 (9-9), NET in the 70s
Plus, teams like Texas are considered a bubble team due to a NET in the mid 30s, but a record of 16-15 (8-10).
If NET is supposed to be a major factor now, replacing the RPI, then why do some teams with low NET rankings get a pass just because they have a big win or two? And why does NET seem to trump a poor record in other cases? It doesn’t make sense to me.
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All-In [44050]
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110%er [6281]
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All-TigerNet [11486]
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110%er [6281]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 9, 2019, 9:59 PM
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Seton Hall has beaten Kentucky, Marq, and Nova. All quad 1 wins. Texas has some great Ws but too many Ls. Not sure about GTown but I believe they are out of it. We have a much better resume than Bama and some others on the bubble. Our 1-9 record against quad 1 teams hurts us but do they look at as the fact we lost 2 on the road by 1 point and 3 others were to top 5 teams? Idk how much they use the NET but that should help us. Our only flaw is quad 1 Ws. Not sure how many quad 3 or 4 Ls some of those teams that have more quad 1 Ws have tho. Beat NCST and we are in no doubt tho.
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All-In [44050]
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I hope the committee looks at the details of or season.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:09 PM
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If so, they will see a team that played really hard, narrowly lost 6 ACC games by a combined 10 points, and dominated many ACC teams by 10+ points. They also won’t see any bad losses.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: I hope the committee looks at the details of or season.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:14 PM
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I sure hope so. They have 36 at large teams to look at so idk how much they dig deep into but I would guess they look at the bubble teams very closely. Lipscomb and Radford winning their tourneys will help. I think they look at who you have beat in the field a good bit. Our no bad Ls and NET ranking should be enough imo but it would have certainly helped to have another quad 1 W. I will be very nervous Sunday if we lose on Wednesday tho lol.
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All-Conference [412]
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All-Conference [412]
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Re: I hope the committee looks at the details of or season.
Mar 10, 2019, 4:49 AM
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“Any”
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110%er [6281]
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110%er [5079]
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Gergetown is in no current bracket projection, and Seton Hall has quality wins
Mar 9, 2019, 10:15 PM
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Seton Hall's OOC win over Kentucky holds a lot of weight.
And, their last two games are wins over two ranked teams in Marquette and 'Nova.
Their average ranking is an 11-seed, which is not what I would call "firmly in."
http://www.bracketmatrix.com
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110%er [6281]
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Re: Gergetown is in no current bracket projection, and Seton Hall has quality wins
Mar 9, 2019, 10:22 PM
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Ohio St should not be in over us imo. I can understand seton hall.
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Legend [18851]
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Re: Gergetown is in no current bracket projection, and Seton Hall has quality wins
Mar 10, 2019, 9:29 AM
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Live near Ohio State and they seem to think they are firmly in. I do not see it. They completely got beat by Northwestern the other night and their conference may not have any teams left after first weekend of tournament but the Michigans.
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All-In [44050]
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Thanks, I’ve looked at the bracket matrix.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:57 PM
[ in reply to Gergetown is in no current bracket projection, and Seton Hall has quality wins ] |
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Georgetown being mentioned as in was based on the article I linked in the first reply to this thread.
But since you mentioned bracket matrix, help me understand TCU. They are in on 80 of the brackets, yet they are 7-11 in the Big XII. I know that it’s a good conference, but come on, a conference record four games below .500 shouldn’t even get a team close to the bubble regardless of the quality wins they might have.
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110%er [5079]
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I didn't scroll far enough. Georgetown is in one projection, but still. As for TCU, you got me
Mar 9, 2019, 11:15 PM
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TCU beat no one with a pulse in OOC play, and they are 8th out of 10 teams in their conference. They have no justifiable reason to be in the tourney other than the bubble is that weak.
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CU Medallion [67850]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:18 PM
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In the Boeheim interview after our game I think NET came up and he was fairly critical of it as a measure. I forget all the aspects but he seemed to think it wasnt very good.
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110%er [5079]
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He basically said that a lot of mid-majors have a high NET by winning over weak teams***
Mar 9, 2019, 10:23 PM
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110%er [6281]
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Legend [16908]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:38 PM
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It’s not rocket science. This is the first year with NET rankings and the prognosticators have no idea how it will be applied. So they’re hedging their bets. While RPI was the official measure previously the committee admitted using other metrics. The other problem for Clemson - if NET is THE metric - is that the ACC is, as of today, only the 4th best conference by the ranking. The 4th best conference doesn’t get to have the most teams. By the old RPI we’re tied for the 2nd best conference but Clemson is a less attractive 51st and will fall further if they lose to NC State. Games currently seem much less volatile to rankings at this point in the season in the NET system. There are also, as always, only so many bids. What if Wofford fails to win the Socon? They’re 10th in NET. Think we get in ahead of them? If we beat NC State it’s almost certain we’re in, but would not be remotely unprecedented if we did not make it. It has happened to far more worthy teams in the past. If we lose, we put ourselves in the thick of the bubble and have to start rooting against any conference tourney upsets.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:47 PM
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If net is the metric we are in for sure. We are 41st in net rankings. Probably higher after today's W. I doubt net is all that matters but I'm sure it does. Quality Ws and bad Ls play a huge factor. If Radford and Lipscomb win they tourneys we will have 4 Ws over tourney teams. Possible 5 if Usuck wins 2 games in the sec tourney. We need to win against State. Have just 1 of our close Ls go our way would have surely helped.
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Hall of Famer [24999]
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i feel like the bracket predictors may not be 100%
Mar 9, 2019, 10:45 PM
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Dialed in this year thanks to the new system. They will probably be less accurate than previous seasons
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All-In [44050]
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I bet you’re right.
Mar 9, 2019, 10:48 PM
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I just don’t see how teams with overall records around .500 or conference records more than a game below .500 will get in, regardless of how many good wins they have.
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Orange Blooded [3369]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 10, 2019, 9:19 AM
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It’s because we have only 1 Q1 Win . I have been trying to tell everyone this for weeks. We most definitely need to beat NCST because they are not taking 9 ACC teams.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 10, 2019, 9:24 AM
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They may take 9 ACC teams. It has happened before. Just depends on how much what matters. If NET and SOS are important factors we are in right now even with an L. We don't have many great Ws for sure but if Lipscomb and Radford win their tourneys we will have 4 wins over tournament teams which isn't bad. We should have won atleast one against Creighton, Miss St, and Nebraska and beating State, UL, or UNC would have probably out us in for sure right now.
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Orange Blooded [3369]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 10, 2019, 9:35 AM
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Well I do know this we have work to do , we are not already in. We need at least 1 more win maybe 2
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All-In [44050]
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You don’t know. None of us know for sure.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:48 AM
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It’s all conjecture at this point regarding what the committee prioritizes this year and how we stack up.
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Athletic Dir [876]
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Re: I don’t understand some of the bracketology predictions for bubble teams.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:52 AM
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Let’s win 2 ACC tourney games and put this bubble talk to rest!!! Go tigers!
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All-In [27374]
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One thing for certain....
Mar 10, 2019, 12:24 PM
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IF that game with UNC had gone our way we would be a lock for the dance right now.
I guess that same statement can be made about the L’ville or Miami or earlier NCSU game. That last very bad no call against the Heels was murder. The OT would have been some interesting basketball. I believe we make it at least to the last four in regardless of the outcome of the next game.... unless it is a blow out loss!
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