Replies: 16
| visibility 4166
|
All-In [49614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30357
Joined: 12/10/98
|
8-5 ... a long look down the road
Feb 14, 2016, 5:44 PM
|
|
Yesterday's win over GTech was literally a "line in the sand" victory for postseason hopes. And if the hop-skip-and-jump shot hadn't suddenly become legal in Cameron, the Tigers would be on the cusp of a crucial double-by in the upcoming ACC tournament.
But anyone with a memory knows how those things go at Duke. So, here we are in 7th place with 5 games to go. I'd like to take a quick gander at how the rest of the regular season pans out, both for us and the teams we'd need to pass for a top four seed. The good news is we're one game out of a top 4 seed. That's not pleasant, but it is possible ... and not in a "so there's a chance" possible, either.
To start, here's where everyone stands this morning:
1. UNC 9-2 2. Miami 9-3 3. N. Dame 9-4 3. Virginia 9-4 5. Duke 8-4 5. *L'ville 8-4 7. Clemson 8-5 8. Syracuse 7-5 9. Pitt 6-5 10. Fla. St. 6-6 11. Vtech 5-7 12. GTech 3-9 12. NC State 3-9 14. Wake 1-12 15. Boston 0-12
* Note that Louisville's place is meaningless, since the Cards won't be playing in the tournament. So, technically, Clemson is 6th when it comes to seeding, though 7th in the standings.
Were the tournament this week, we'd get the first day off, play the winner of Vtech and Wake, then Notre Dame.
But we don't want to do that. We want a Top 4 seed and a double-day off. To do so, Clemson cannot finish worse than 12-6, meaning one more loss. Why/ Because of how the rest of the season works out elsewhere. Here are the likely runs for the rest of the teams currently at or above .500 in conference.
1. UNC: The Heels actually have a tough row to hoe from here out, including road games at Duke, NC State and Virginia. Other games are at home with Pitt, Duke, Miami and Syracuse. The Heels are good enough to win them all, but they won't. Look for a split with Duke and a loss at Virginia. They end up at 14-4
2. Miami: Looking for a team to skid over the next few weeks? I'd look at Miami. The Canes have 3 losses, all on the road. Half of their remaining six games are on the road, including at UNC and at Notre Dame. One of the home games remaining is vs. Louisville, another vs. Virginia. The Canes will either impress the heck out of me or they'll fall back.
3. Virginia: After that loss at Duke, will the Hoos bounce back? Or will road games at Miami and Clemson, and home games vs. Louisville and UNC get to Virginia? All the Hoos losses are on the road, and Clemson plays a game that the Hoos have trouble with .... in between games against UNC and the Cards. Just about the prefect time to catch them.
4. Notre Dame: The Irish have been playing well lately, and their home stretch isn't nearly as tough as the other leaders. They have a trio of road games against lesser foes, and only Miami remains as a real roadblock. I don't see ND falling back to the pack.
5. Duke: Anyone's back starting to seize up? As long as the Devils can get the kind of help they got yesterday, they'll keep winning. But with back-to-back road games at UNC and L'ville coming up, Duke could easily fall back ... and did I mention their closer is against the Heels?
6. Louisville: Clemson doesn't care where the Cards end up, since they won't be in the tourney. But obviously it behooves us for the Cards to win out. Three of their remaining games, vs. Duke, at Miami and at Virginia, are against teams we're trying to catch. Knowing they have nothing to play for, do the Cards go out fighting or do they fold.
7. Clemson: There's no one remaining on our schedule we can't beat. That said, we won't beat everyone. Our only chance to gain our own ground is against Virginia.
8. Syracuse: Quick, who's the hottest team in the ACC? Yep, after a dismal start, the Orange have won 8 of their last 9. And in their remaining schedule, Syracuse really can't help us advance. Their only game against a Top-4 contender is at UNC. Honestly we'd rather the Orange lose that to give us some wiggle room over them ... though we do hold the tiebreaker with Syracuse.
Our best outcome: Assuming Clemson finishes 12-6, which is a fair outcome based on remaining schedule, the best thing to happen would be if Louisville went on in a blaze of glory. However, given the Cards' weakness in road games, Duke would be the only "help us" win we're likely to see.
Just about anyone the Heels beat is good for us. with a little luck and reasoned officiating, they could hand Duke 2 losses, plus take down Miami in Chapel Hill. I will never cheer for UNC, but it's close to an "enemy of my enemy" scenario.
Miami would need to lose 3 of their remaining 7 games. One tonight at FSU would be a nice start, dropping the Canes into the 8-4 logjam just ahead of us. With road games at UNC, ND and home vs. UVa and L'ville, all is possible.
The other option is for Virginia to lose two ... one of them to Clemson on March 1. Of course, they messed things up falling to the Devils Saturday, but they could make up for that by lsing to UNC or Louisville. If the second loss comes to Miami, it could well keep the Canes above Clemson in the standings ... and we need to be at least tied with Miami, because we hold the tiebreaker.
So, IF Duke can drop one more game than Clemson... And IF Miami can drop one more game than Clemson... And IF Virginia can drop two games, one to Clemson ...
At the end of the season, the standings would look like so:
1. UNC 14-4 2. N. Dame 13-5 3. Virginia 12-6 3. Clemson 12-6 3. Miami 12-6 3. *L'ville 12-6 7. Syracuse 11-7 7. Duke 11-7
At this point, there'd be no way to figure if Virginia or Clemson had the true 3 or 4 seed, but it's clear that supper is still VERY much on the table for the Tigers.Heck, even if Duke finises in the 12-6 logjam, Clemson holds the tiebreaker there as well.
Exciting days ahead!
Message was edited by: RevDodd®
|
|
|
|
All-Conference [406]
TigerPulse: 47%
Posts: 693
Joined: 6/3/12
|
Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road
Feb 14, 2016, 5:59 PM
|
|
We need Miami to beat FSU. All our fans are gonna get caught up in this acc seeding crap. None of it matters if fsu keeps winning b/c they will get in over us. We don't need fsu getting big wins over anybody.
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [12943]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 6228
Joined: 1/26/16
|
I'm not sure how much a loss to Miami would effect FSU's
Feb 14, 2016, 6:22 PM
|
|
NCAAT chances...
IMO, the better we land in ACCT seeding, the better shot we have at the NCAA. If we go into the ACCT needed one big win to get in the dance, I like our chances after a double bye better than having to win more than one game.
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [12943]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 6228
Joined: 1/26/16
|
good write up Rev... I think Miami and Duke both end up with
Feb 14, 2016, 6:16 PM
|
|
7 ACC losses. If we finish 12-6, we're gonna be in the top 4. Both Miami and Duke have brutal stretches.
Looking ahead to games this week... I think we want the following:
FSU over UM tonight
Clemson over BC Wed. UofL over Cuse Wed. UNC over Duke Wed.
UofL over Duke Sat. UNC over Miami Sat. Clemson over NCSU Sat. (scariest game remaining for us, IMO)
if that happened, we'd be sitting in 4th place this time next week (minus UofL)
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [68776]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 115780
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Duke never has a really brutal stretch
Feb 14, 2016, 6:44 PM
|
|
when they have it going 8 on 5. And normally they do
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [44258]
TigerPulse: 81%
Posts: 33108
Joined: 2/22/03
|
Great analysis, Rev.
Feb 14, 2016, 6:31 PM
|
|
I think 12-6 gets us into the NCAA Tournament regardless of where that puts us in the ACC pecking order. It would certainly be nice to be top 4 and get a double bye though.
We can do this! Go Tigers!
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [49445]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 27724
Joined: 8/10/02
|
Thanks Rev, always appreciate your hoops perspective.***
Feb 14, 2016, 7:59 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [2783]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3409
Joined: 4/14/11
|
Feels like if we make a good showing in the tourney
Feb 14, 2016, 8:37 PM
|
|
we may be in the dance. If we make it to the finals of the ACC??
If a man can dream, he should dream big
|
|
|
|
|
Heisman Winner [137796]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 26600
Joined: 9/18/12
|
Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road
Feb 15, 2016, 8:09 AM
|
|
well thought out. Good post.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [49614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30357
Joined: 12/10/98
|
Bumped with last night's results
Feb 15, 2016, 11:07 AM
|
|
Miami eked out a win at FSU ... sure wish we had!
|
|
|
|
|
Asst Coach [703]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 980
Joined: 6/8/04
|
Re: 8-5 ... a long look down the road
Feb 15, 2016, 12:27 PM
|
|
At this point, I am glad Miami won last night, considering Lunardi at ESPN had FSU as one of the last four teams in (with Clemson as one of the first four out). FSU's loss helps us more (than a Miami loss would) since FSU would be a more solid NCAA tourney bid with a win over a ranked Miami squad.
I think we should be more concerned with the teams outside of the ACC on the bubble (Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Washington and Saint Mary's), and even teams behind us in the ACC standings that are currently projected as being in the tournament (Syracuse and FSU).
Our schedule is the most favorable amongst the teams ahead of us in the ACC standings, so there will be movement amongst Miami, Duke and UVA, but I am more concerned about Syracuse and FSU being bubble teams even though we have a better conference record than both. We win out and we are in the Big Dance because we would be riding a six-game winning streak into the ACC tournament with a win over a ranked UVA.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [49614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30357
Joined: 12/10/98
|
Agreed: But right now, they are legion...
Feb 15, 2016, 3:06 PM
|
|
..In a week or so, I think we can begin winnowing the field beyond the conference.
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1918]
TigerPulse: 94%
Posts: 2693
Joined: 7/22/99
|
11-7 is my prediction.
Feb 15, 2016, 1:21 PM
|
|
I doubt Clemson beats Virginia at home. I see a split at best away against Ga. Tech and NC State.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [49614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30357
Joined: 12/10/98
|
Could be ... but if we want a Top 4 seed
Feb 15, 2016, 3:09 PM
|
|
...then we must win there.
And we can, if we play to our potential. We obviously can take the Jackets again, and State isn't good enough inside to stop us if we play determined.
Virginia is a tall order, granted. But that's how legends are made.
|
|
|
|
|
All-In [49614]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30357
Joined: 12/10/98
|
And my apologies: I just saw this was in the baseball thread
Feb 15, 2016, 3:11 PM
|
|
Crump, B'meist, please feel free to move it.
Thanks!
|
|
|
|
|
CU Medallion [50635]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 43019
Joined: 12/3/98
|
the ball is still round***
Feb 15, 2016, 5:45 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [12943]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 6228
Joined: 1/26/16
|
|
|
|
Replies: 16
| visibility 4166
|
|
|