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Topic: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison
Replies: 24   Last Post: Dec 23, 2020, 9:10 AM by: Clemgalalways
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Replies: 24  

Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

emoji_events [19]
Posted: Dec 21, 2020, 8:20 PM
 

All stats listed below were taken from here: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs


Someone posted a question asking for an 'objective' analysis of OSU. I've watched 2 of their games this year and left with the very subjective opinion of "OMG they are horrible." So, I thought it would be worth my time to at least educate me on where they stand after their 6 games. I'm not going to comment on the quality of their opponents or SOS, because that's a subjective rabbit hole with no winners.

I only looked at Defense. I think their offense has been productive and isn't really up for debate. They can score points when their best players are healthy and playing. They've got studs at WR (like Julian Fleming, who we very much wanted). And Fields is legit and a top CFB QB.

But, their defense is bad. I'm including Clemson's numbers because we're all familiar with our defense. This should help you gain a little perspective.

Total Defense:
Clemson - 6th - 298 YPG
OSU - 34th - 358 YPG

Tackles for Loss:
Clemson - 3rd - 9.4 TFLs per Game
OSU - 66th - 6.0 TFLs per Game

SACKS:
Clemson - 4th - 4.0 Sacks per Game
OSU - 26th - 2.83 Sacks per Game

3rd Down Conversion (% of time Defense allows Offense to get a 1st down on 3rd down)
Clemson - 9th - 30.4%
OSU - 19th - 34.1%

OSU is struggling on defense and it's not up for discussion. They haven't been able to create pressure on opposing QBs or be disruptive against offensive lines. They certainly don't have the typical defense for a CFP team.

I have a subjective opinion on why their defense is down this year (And I'm sure there are many factors). But, I think it's with their new Defensive Coordinator Kerry Coombs. He was the CB coach 2012-17 then spent 2 years doing a mediocre job coaching CBs in the NFL. It's a new system for OSU and if you've watched them play, half the players look lost for about 3 seconds after the ball snaps. Their LBs are out of position to make a play most of the time. They overcome some of that with their athleticism. And they've got some NFL-caliber players back there on that defense! They just seem lost. Northwestern's QB is not a strong thrower or a nimble runner. But OSU made him look like Deshaun Watson in the first half of that game. I think this lies at the feet of their D-Coordinator, Kerry Coombs.

As for as what it means? I don't know. But, I have a very hard time visualizing the OSU defense keeping Clemson under 40 points. I think Elliot can score at will on that defense.

I'd love to hear what you guys have seen.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[2]
Posted: Dec 21, 2020, 8:38 PM
 

I like what you say and I think you are spot on with your analysis. Thanks for the effort! Go Tigers!

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[1]
Posted: Dec 21, 2020, 8:46 PM
 

Love the quantitative analysis

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[2]
Posted: Dec 21, 2020, 10:31 PM
 

Great analysis. I looked at rushing defense and passing defense. OSU is allowing 3.35 yards per carry compared to the Tigers 2.79 yards per carry. For some reason, OSU is ranked higher for overall run defense. It must be some reason like fewer games played.

As far as pass defense, OSU is ranked 103 of 127 giving up over 261 yards per game compared to Clemson giving up just over 198 passing yards per game.

Tigers win by 2+ scores.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[1]
Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 1:19 AM
 

The default sort for Rushing Defense is total Yards Per Game. If you sort it by Yards Per Carry, you are correct, Clemson moves to #4 and OSU moves way down. Those facts combine to tell an interesting story.

Why would a team not run the ball more against them? Why not have more rushing attempts?


You correctly pointed out the answer: OSU's Passing Defense is so bad that teams are electing to call passing plays as their high efficiency plays instead of running. To use a basketball analogy, teams that play OSU are finding it more effective to shoot 3s all day instead of going for layups.

We have a small sample size, so I'm somewhat hesitant to bury them before the game. But, the data we do have doesn't paint a good picture for OSU. It actually makes me concerned for the CFP Committee. Are they not looking at this data, which (presumably) is a good indicator of on-the-field success? Maybe we're playing Moneyball and they're playing politics? =)

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[1]
Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 8:12 AM
 

Brings to mind the 2014 FSU team that got whipped in the semifinals.

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WL


Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 8:26 AM
 

The FSU team that gave up 600+ yards and 59 points to Oregon? Yup. It's like that I think. Of course, the next game Oregon ran into a tough OSU defense and Zeke Elliott and got destroyed. Good times.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 9:53 AM
 

Correct.

YPC Clemson is #4 and Ohio State is #17

YPG Clemson is #9 and Ohio State is #7

QB run has gashed Ohio State. RBs in traditional sets have gotten virtually nothing. With the run challenges Clemson has had this year, I wouldn't expect ETN to get much between the tackles. But that read option play killed us last year and I'm expecting to see a healthy dose of that.

Admittedly, I'm more concerned with Ohio State's secondary and particularly our safeties. Indiana scratched it's way back into that game after being down 35-7 with our free safety being responsible for 21 points on blown coverages.

We've cleaned things up a bit the last two games but we'll see what they means against an offense like Clemson. SP+ has our defense ranked 8 so I don't think the sky is falling but it's clearly not the defense from last season.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 10:24 AM
 

OSU is ranked his in YPG rushing because Indiana had negative yards rushing and threw for over 500 yards.

Indiana decided pretty early in the game to stop calling running plays and then lost some yards on sacks.

In only 6 games, that skewed OSU YPG stats pretty heavily.

Clemson also gave up a ton of rush yards to ND on Nov 7 and that pushed our YPG up for the season.

One game skewed each team's results in the opposite direction of their typical performance.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison

[1]
Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 8:30 AM
 

Great analysis. Something else to look at is where their offensive line ranks in sacks allowed and tackled for loss allowed.

Ohio State is 90th in tackles for loss allowed and 105th in sacks allowed. It will be very easy for Brent to get pressure on Fields, and Fields doesn’t handle pressure well.

Here is Fields under pressure this year. Absolutely bone-headed decision making here. He’s gotta be one of the worst guys under pressure in college football.

https://youtu.be/kaxXD-plado

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 9:10 AM
 

Their entire Fanbase will be in group therapy on Monday, January 4.

The good news is, as a joint New Year’s resolution, they will qualify for a volume discount.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 10:00 AM
 

The sample size for 31-0 is just too small.

But that being said, I think the other issue is that with the lack of a season, a lot of B10 offtime, the defense is just not up to normal season form. I still think they have the paper talent, they just are not in "championship" mode - especially considering how weak the B10 is this year. I think about 10 of the 12 teams would not win a OOC game, MACtion included.

So you are right, new DC, limited time, and weak competition....

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 10:18 AM
 

Sounds like Dabo was right again! Rating them #11 rather than 4 is more realistic.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 11:39 AM
 

Dabo is being symbolic more than anything. Anything to stir the pot I suppose. I think it's an effort to get us playing too emotional and less disciplined football. With big play talents in ETN and TL, that could equate to a disaster. Plus you never know how opposing QBs process the disrespect. Book was told he didn't belong and outside those first couple drives of the ACC championship, he certainly started playing like he didn't belong.

Our offense is too good to not be considered top 10. Our defense the last few games is playing moreso bend but don't break allowing offenses to make mistakes and capitalizing on turnovers.

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Day drinking


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 1:04 PM
 

I 'm jealous

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Re: Day drinking

[1]
Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 4:53 PM
 

?? c' mon man, you clearly are the only one that's not!

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 5:01 PM
 

There will be capitalization on turnovers, no doubt. Fields is averaging almost one per game. Couple that with the fact they haven’t played a team with a defense with an actual pulse and you do the maffftt.

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 23, 2020, 8:48 AM
 

It should also be pointed out that the Buckeyes haven’t really played the toughest of opponents this year
Those defensive numbers against the teams they have played are scary..,,, if you are an OSU fan,
I can see the Tigers hanging 60 on this number three team!

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I think the best way to use stats to evaluate a defense is

[1]
Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 5:13 PM
 

comparative, as in % of opponent average ypp allowed. ypc rushing and ypa passing.

THe college fb nerds on youtube (formerly SEC fans, and they get kinda SEC homery sometimes)

But their stat model is pretty good. (It had Bama beating UF 48-43)
Last year it had us beating Ohio St 28-27.

But this year, we are giving up 69% of opponent rushing average, and 90% of passing average (I think, or thereabouts)
BUT, Ohio st is giving up 95% of rushing avg, and 105% of passing avg. So, we should have an avg day which is in 40's, points wise.

The model assumes opponent strength is equal, which it usually isn't but this year its impossible to know.

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Re: I think the best way to use stats to evaluate a defense is


Posted: Dec 23, 2020, 9:10 AM
 

I used to have the link to them guys. I liked listening to them. If you get this, please pass it along. Tried to Google some but never found them. Thanks!

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Re: I think the best way to use stats to evaluate a defense is


Posted: Dec 23, 2020, 9:10 AM
 

I used to have the link to them guys. I liked listening to them. If you get this, please pass it along. Tried to Google some but never found them. Thanks!

link

Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 5:19 PM
 

But remember they play in the mighty BIG while we play in the lowly so all those logical numbers don't mean much to them because we played 10 games against weak opponents. They on the other hand played 6 games against the greatest teams in College Football.

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When all are healthy, (which will be a question, given that


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 5:33 PM
 

Fields currently has a bum throwing hand) Ohio State is more than capable on offense. However, I believe that we have a DECIDED advantage on the defensive side of the ball, much more so than last year. Since the old saying is true that "Championships are won on defense", Clemson Wins Again!

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 9:17 PM
 

Shameless Bump!

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Re: Objective OSU/Clemson Defensive Stat Comparison


Posted: Dec 22, 2020, 9:43 PM
 

What about the relative quality of the offenses they have have faced?

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