Letterman [298]
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Posts: 324
Joined: 11/30/98
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Orange Bowl Stats--in honor of Joey Galloway, let's start w/
Dec 14, 2015, 2:52 PM
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rushing stats...OU Rushing offense vs. CU Rushing defense
Stat #1 : Clemson has held 9 of 12 FBS opponents below their rushing average. FSU (+16), Cuse (+78) and SC (+26)...
Stat #2: Clemson has played 5 rushing offenses ranked in top 32 in average yards per game: Appy State (#6), GT (#7), UNC (#22), ND (#25) and NC St (#32)...each of those teams ranks lower in the pass game than the run game, so you could make the case that stopping the run was priority #1 for the Clemson D. In those games, opponents averaged 100 yards less than their season average. GT is an outlier, so excluding that one game, it drops it down to 80 yards less.
While I like this stat, there is danger there...no team that the Clemson D has faced is as balanced as OU. They rank #17 in rushing and #18 in passing; so, perhaps this isn't as cut and dried as say, taking out UNC run game to make them beat us through the air. That said, my guess is that Coach V is going to plan to take the run away and make them as one dimensional as possible.
Stat #3: The best rush D that OU has faced is Akron at #3 (allowing 2.83 ypc and 89.75 ypg)...I'm not going to dismiss Akron's D--they also held Pitt to 127 yards rushing in game 2, well below their average. OU ran for an even 100 yards on 33 carries (but threw for 470 or something ridiculous). Next highest ranked rush D was Tenn at 49 (ran 161, +8 yards vs. Tenn's average allowed); then KSU where they ran 52 times for 232 yards (4.46 ypc)--OU ran for 72 more than KSU allowed on average, but this was largely volume driven in a 55-0 game (35-0 at half) in which KSU was held to 110 total yards and threw 3 INTs.
OU's 3 best rushing days came against Texas Tech (#126 rush D @ 271/game and 6 ypc), TCU (#80 rush D) and Okie St (#83 rush d).
Stat(s) #4: Long rushing plays vs. long rushing plays allowed
OU ranks as follows:
10+run: 11th
20+run: 10th
30+run: 15th
40+run: 20th
50+run: 10th
CU D ranks as follows:
10+run: 55th
20+run: 90th
30+run: 86th
40+run: 107th
50+run: 89th
Reason for concern? Absolutely. Our DL has to keep their backs bottled up and our LB's need to make tackles. Green and Kearse are very important here as well.
Now, to minimize that concern, let's see what that means in terms of plays in a single game. CU has allowed 8% of the carries against this year to go 10-20 yards; 3% to go 20-30 and 2% of carries to go 30+.
OU has gained 10-19 on 12% of offensive rushes; 3% of rushes have gone 20-30 and 2% have gone 30+.
Even if we take the higher OU numbers and assume 40 total carries, that results in the following:
4-5 carries of 10-19 yards
1 20-30 yard play
and just barely 1 30+ play.
So, an area of concern, yes...but going to decide the game, likely not. What's going to decide the game are the other ~33 rushes and 25-35 passes and how well the D plays on those.
Does OU have a great set of backs? Yes.
Does OU have a QB that can scramble and pick up key yardage? Yes.
Will OU break some runs? Yes.
Again, as we will see over and over in these forthcoming stat comparisons, we have to take OU's offensive success this year with a grain or two of salt. The defenses faced are just awful outside of the first two and one was a MAC school. What that really means, in my opinion, is that if Clemson's front 4 play well, they can and will again control the LOS. While OU has a strong OL, I don't think this is the best OL we have see this year; top 3 maybe, but not best.
A later post will look into negative plays, which is interesting aspect of the game as well, but this is plenty for now and will probably get lost in the Dexter Lawrence shuffle from today....
One last bonus stat...OU's rushing offense ranked higher and averaged nearly a full yard more per carry than they have averaged this year (#17 in 2015, 235/g and 5.21/carry; #11 in 2014, 261/g and 6.1/carry).
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