That is something that everyone needs to remember. I have no idea how this will all shake out, but decisions won't be made on:
improving a chance at a national championship ticked off at the conference you are in (think aTm, Mizzou, Arkansas, etc.) geography (except how travel costs factor in with the money) fans tradition and history loyalty anything else you can think of
aTm will yell and scream in public. In private, the commissioner and his staff will sit down with the president and his staff and say, "Here's how much money the SEC is giving you every year. Here is how much money the SEC will give you after TX and OU join." He will have the data and the information to back up his claims.
And, aTm will say, "We're on board. But, do you have enough votes for it to pass without us? Can we publicly - for the sake of our fan base - pretend to be against it? You've got our vote if you need it. But, can we have your permission to vote against it?"
That is the same thing going on in every conference. Presidents have told the commissioners, "This is why you get the big bucks. Figure out how we can make more money through this conference shake-up. And, if we can't make more money, at least figure out a way we won't lose money. We'd like to stay in this conference. But, bottom line is this: My university is gonna follow the money."
You nailed it. There will be politics, posturing, saber rattling, sleight of hand, etc. All red herrings. Just follow the money which is completely driven by football and television. Not basketball. It looks like all conferences were caught flat footed by the SEC. Kudos to them. While Swofford was taking a retirement victory lap and Phillips was on his listening tour, Sankey was getting business done. Color me shocked.