Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Oct 23, 2016, 8:59 AM

As some of you have seen in my earlier posts, I've been tracking the AP top 5 and who is beating winners and who is beating losers. In a round about way, this shows a strength of schedule and the quality of wins. I've seen quite a few folks worrying about Louisville "jumping Clemson" because of their ESPN talking head hype but the facts bear out the following:

Louisville is 6-1; whose defeated teams combined record is 21-23
Whereas:
Clemson is 7-0; whose defeated teams combined record is 31-16

Louisville has beaten 2 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 3 teams with a losing record.
Whereas:
Clemson has beaten 5 teams with winning records, 1 team with an even record, and 1 team with a losing record.

So here are the facts:
Clemson beat Louisville in head to head competition. Clemson has beaten more winners than losers. Louisville has beaten more losers than winners. The fact that Louisville scores a ton of points in their wins is somewhat mitigated by the level of their competition. Ultimately, Louisville is screwed because their remaining games will further deteriorate their strength of schedule. They play two more teams with losing records (Boston College, UVA - two worst teams in ACC), two mediocre teams (Wake Forest and UK), and one non-Power 5 team (Houston) whose tumble in the polls is all but assured after losing to unranked SMU. There are no more quality wins left for Louisville to gain in order to raise their stock beyond where it is right now. Louisville's only hope is for Clemson and all the other teams ahead of them to lose more than once.

ESPN can twist the "eye test" all they want but when the CFB Playoff Committee looks at the data, Louisville will not be ranked as a better team than Clemson. The truth is Louisville has only 1 real quality win (FSU) and 1 quality loss (Clemson). If last year taught us anything about the CFB Playoff Committee, a "quality loss" means nothing compared to just winning - just ask Notre Dame....

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You're not looking at this the right way. People see our common opponent in back-to-back weeks and they see Clemson need the NC State kicker to miss a 33 yard FG at the end of the game in order for the game to go into OT. They then see us lead this same team a week later 44-0 AT HALFTIME. THIS is what people are talking about.

Next is our game in DV. Yes you won, but what was taken out of that game is if that game is played on a neutral field we would have won, and that is what has been talked about since the game ended. You already know all of this because that is the point of this post, but your post is NOT the talking points. Everyone sees the common opponents and they are using them for comparisons, which puts even more pressure on you this Saturday. EVERYONE knows what we did to the Noles, and they will now have one more game to compare, which there is no way you will come out favorably unless you can duplicate what we did, and I just don't see that happening.

You want statistical proof. We are ranked fourth in Sagarin's Predictor ranking, ahead of CU. ESPN's FPI has us favored over CU at a neutral site. Bill Connelly's S&P+ has us ranked second, also ahead of CU. There is plenty of stats that say Louisville is the better team.

If you guys finish undefeated then you deserve to be ranked ahead of us and in the Playoffs, but many people are still not convinced that Clemson is the same team as last year and are looking for any excuse to drop them, so I don't believe you recover from a loss. I know you'll quote that the committee prefers champions, but our scenario is pretty unique, especially considering how our game ended, so I don't think that will be enough to jump back over us if you lose.

The good news for Clemson is that you still control your own destiny while we still need help, but that's the way it is this time of year every year. There's still too much football to be played, but it's fun to talk about. It's also great for the ACC to have two teams in the playoff conversation. It's nice that the $EC isn't dominating the conversation.

Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

excellent post thanks for sharing***

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

When Clemson beats FSU....

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

But, the system is rigged.

Thankfully the decision is in the hands of the Committee....

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Duh, no-brainer.***

Very solid. +1***

Excellent Post! TU

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

you have to TU this post. Great research and information.

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Handed you the ball 5 time and you couldn't win. Good bye.***

Re: Louisville will not make it to the playoffs - here's why:

Great team win big games. You lost. Good bye.***

what you're missing is what happens to the schedules over

But, but, but, but, I'm epidumbsh!t.......***

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