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Associate AD [828]
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The Clock Starts Now (GOP contenders)
May 25, 2023, 3:10 PM
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The Real Clear Politics Polling Average (pre-DeSantis's official entry in the race)...
RCP Average: Trump - 53.9%, DeSantis - 21.3% (Trump +32.6%)
Fox News (5/19-5/22): Trump - 53%, DeSantis - 20% (Trump +33%)
Quinnipiac (5/18-5/22): Trump - 56%, DeSantis - 25% (Trump +31%)
Everything thereafter should be post-DeSantis declaring. His low numbers (or if they improve) will all be about what he does since he's announced. I'm making no value judgments - just saying that before today he was a hypothetical candidate. Now that it is for real, his numbers (especially amongst Republicans who claim to want an alternative to Trump) won't be hindered by his non-candidacy.
I didn't put anyone else above, because other candidates (presumed or declared) are all under 5% in the averages.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html
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Oculus Spirit [80978]
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It's pretty amazing to me that 56% of republicans want trump
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May 25, 2023, 3:12 PM
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as president. Again.
Real conservatism is dead. Sorry Ronny...you tried.
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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They don't, he's just the preferred candidate to run against
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May 25, 2023, 3:13 PM
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so this is what we'll be told up until the nomination.
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Associate AD [828]
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Re: They don't, he's just the preferred candidate to run against
May 25, 2023, 3:16 PM
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Are you saying that all of these different polls are part of a 'spiracy to make Trump the candidate? Who is behind the 'spiracy?
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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Yes, big Govt. and their lackeys (including media)
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May 25, 2023, 3:23 PM
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would much prefer he be the GOP candidate as to not upset their apple cart. Anti-govt sentiment on the right is palpable at this stage, so someone who is toxic would be the ideal Pub candidate.
You would think after almost 10 years of total BS from polls and the media people would have figured this out. Look at the guy who crashed into the White House this week, they aren't even trying to disguise the propaganda anymore. You'd think they could at least have found a white guy to do it. We're devolving into Soviet levels of ridiculousness now.
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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Heisman Winner [137789]
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Just to clarify, if a poll (or polling company) gets a
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May 25, 2023, 3:51 PM
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result incorrect, that indicates the entire concept of polling is invalid? That's...a weird take. In 2016 in particular, a pretty substantial percentage of respondents either said they were voting for Clinton and pulled the lever for Trump, or abstained, and multiple polling companies made best guesses on how independents and non-answers would vote. Most of pollsters ended up being wrong when a surprising number of those people voted Trump, but to decide that polls now have no value because of that is akin to ignoring a hurricane warning because meteorologists called for rain last Tuesday and it was sunny.
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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Oh, so they just got tricked? OK
May 25, 2023, 3:59 PM
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I think the only value they really have is pushing the cattle-like people of our population into making a decision. Many people will just vote for the person they think is going to win, so in that respect one could argue it's bordering on election tampering.
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Heisman Winner [137789]
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OK, but polling has about a billion other applications
May 25, 2023, 4:13 PM
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besides election candidates, too. There's a science behind asking functional, non-leading questions, and some are definitely better at it than others. You can probably name the top 3 or 4 national polling companies offhand, but as soon as they start showing bias in any direction, their reputation for accuracy and reliability drops, as does the number of people who put any stock in their results (again, for far more than just election polling).
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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But we’re talking about election candidates, and I don’t
May 25, 2023, 4:20 PM
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Trust their science for that based on past performance.
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Heisman Winner [137789]
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And you're certainly not alone after 2016 election polls.
May 25, 2023, 4:30 PM
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That's how it works. So...don't put any stock in election poll results, I guess?
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All-In [42021]
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Okay, then name the puppet master
May 26, 2023, 7:54 AM
[ in reply to Oh, so they just got tricked? OK ] |
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You said this is all a coordinated effort by pollsters and the media to sway public opinion.
Tell us the person (there's always just one person) who is orchestrating this grand scheme, and how do they keep everyone involved quiet?
Because the conspiracy theory really makes the most sense. Election tampering? Really? So people who do polls should be criminally charged?
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All-In [34100]
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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I think you're assuming Fox News is actually in touch with
May 25, 2023, 3:43 PM
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conservative voters. I've seen no indication that anybody nationally actually is, whether it be Fox News or many Republican politicians. Hence the frustration from that demographic.
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Oculus Spirit [80978]
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Thast why I wonder about the 53%, or 56% or whatever those
May 25, 2023, 3:45 PM
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polls are saying conservative voters want. I just find that hard to believe.
Maybe I'm not correctly defining conservatives any more though.
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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You probably are, that's just the marketing genius behind
May 25, 2023, 3:52 PM
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the MAGA designation. They've effectively divided a voting bloc who more or less share the same ideology, but many of them don't want to be judged by their hoity toity neighbors for being Trump supporters, so they basically put themselves on an island. You see the same thing happening with Desantis, if they are able to successfully label he and his supporters MAGA, you alienate a large % of the Pub voters from voting for him.
This strategy will be used for any Pub candidate, whether it be Tim Scott or Barbara Streisand.
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Rock Defender [53]
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Re: You probably are, that's just the marketing genius behind
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May 25, 2023, 3:54 PM
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Oculus Spirit [79400]
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I suspect you'd hear him called a 'fascist Uncle Tom' a lot***
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May 25, 2023, 4:02 PM
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Heisman Winner [137789]
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The problem with DeSantis is, he IS Trump.
May 25, 2023, 4:31 PM
[ in reply to You probably are, that's just the marketing genius behind ] |
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He's literally trying to out-Trump Trump, rather than differentiating himself from Trump. The MAGA crowd has no reason to switch if that's the case.
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110%er [7185]
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All-In [42021]
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All-In [49146]
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That's a good point.
May 25, 2023, 4:25 PM
[ in reply to Yes, big Govt. and their lackeys (including media) ] |
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"Anti-govt sentiment on the right is palpable at this stage, so someone who is toxic would be the ideal Pub candidate."
Really seems to be what has made his popularity stay so strong after all the drama and investigations. He needs to hold up another Bible to re-energize his religious right support, seems like they're gone after they got Supreme Court judges and overturned Rowe. Not sure where they go now, maybe Pence.
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All-In [42021]
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All-In [47795]
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I don't think it will be either Trump or DeFascist
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May 25, 2023, 3:25 PM
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Trump has a mountain of real legal troubles that will impact well in advance of the first primary.
People are interested in DeFascist only because he won big in Florida and has a loud mouth. But, as soon as people start paying actual attention to him in real time, his stock will sink.
I think the field is wide open. The money backing Tim Scott is interesting. Glenn Youngkin will make waves as well.
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Oculus Spirit [80978]
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A Scott/Haley ticket could be very interesting
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May 25, 2023, 3:41 PM
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I'm not sure how any woman votes for Trump.
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All-In [47795]
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I think there's a constitutional
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May 25, 2023, 3:46 PM
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prohibition on the President and VP being from the same state. but, could that could probably be fixed by one of them just moving address prior to the election
I like both Scott and Haley and agree it would be a dynamic ticket.
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Oculus Spirit [80978]
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You are correct; I saw that mentioned in here the other day***
May 25, 2023, 3:59 PM
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All-In [49146]
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All-TigerNet [13605]
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Re: I don't think it will be either Trump or DeFascist
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May 25, 2023, 5:30 PM
[ in reply to I don't think it will be either Trump or DeFascist ] |
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I agree with this. I posted a thread the other day to follow the money.
If money is an indication and it usually is, Tim Scott will do very well.
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Orange Blooded [4736]
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Re: The Clock Starts Now (GOP contenders)
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May 25, 2023, 3:29 PM
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I would expect Desantis to get a slight bump now that he's officially in, but Trump will maintain a commanding lead for the time being. I do agree it's a two horse race at this point but a lot of time left.
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110%er [8885]
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Re: The Clock Starts Now (GOP contenders)
May 25, 2023, 3:42 PM
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the use of the word contenders is very generous in this case
Ron is taking bribe money to run
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Oculus Spirit [97664]
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I will not vote for Biden. I will not vote for Trump.
May 25, 2023, 6:05 PM
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I will not vote for DeSantis. This I can guarantee. This is the primary. If it's Trump vs. Biden Part deux, I will drink heavily.
That's all.
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110%er [8885]
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this is a good question
May 25, 2023, 6:28 PM
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if not Tiggity, who does Ron peel off to gain ground on Trump
he needs voters, where is he going to get them?
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Orange Blooded [3212]
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Re: The Clock Starts Now (GOP contenders)
May 26, 2023, 8:01 AM
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I can only hope Trump does NOT get the nomination. Just enough mouth breathers out there to have him make a continued joke of the republican party. No way this republican vote goes for him.
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Associate AD [828]
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Re: The Clock Starts Now (GOP contenders)
May 27, 2023, 3:14 PM
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Lordy. Two quick additional points.
The poll conspiracy nonsense is... nonsense. The great thing about Real Clear Politics is that they compile data from many different polling organizations.
Second, if you actually read any of the content on RCP, their links are to pretty hard-right political coverage. They are anything but part of some liberal agenda. But they do polling data very well.
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