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CU Medallion [65604]
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What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 9:21 AM
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season? What situation will Clemson really find itself up against as far as being picked for the playoffs? I say it is this:
Clemson 13-0 ACC Champions (If this is not the case, you might as well forget it this year.) Ohio State 13-0 BIG Champions Oklahoma 12-1 Big 12 Champions Oregon 12-1 Pac 12 Champions Bama or LSU 13-0 SEC Champions Bama or LSU 11-1 SEC "At Large" (Have to include them in the discussion, you can bet the Committee will.)
If the above are the choices, I see
SEC Champ #1 Ohio State #2 Clemson #3 Oregon #4 (Could be Oklahoma, but I think Pac 12 would get it due to being left out a lot, and due to their AD being the Committee chair. That shouldn't matter, but you can bet it will.)
If not, then the Committee has lied to us all these years about Conference Champions getting preference over nonconference champions if all is roughly equal.
LSU / Bama loser knows full well going into this weekend, that this SHOULD BE considered an elimination game. ESPiN will of course try to convince us all that the loser deserves an automatic "Do-Over", as they do every year with the loser of the SEC Championship game.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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What if Georgia manages to win out and wins the $EC title...
Nov 7, 2019, 9:31 AM
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Let's just say, for example...
Bama beats LSU handily this week.
Georgia wins out and beats Bama for the $EC championship.
You now have three $EC teams with one loss.
Ohio State wins out and wins the BIG championship.
Oklahoma wins out and wins the Big XII championship.
Oregon wins out and wins the Pac 12 championship.
Clemson wins out and wins the ACC championship.
Bama is 12 - 1
LSU is 11 - 1
Georgia is 12 - 1 and $EC champions
Ohio State is 13 - 0 and BIG champions
Oklahoma is 12 - 1 and champions of the BigXII
Oregon is 12 - 1 and champions of the Pac12
Clemson is 13 - 0 and champions of the ACC
As the only unbeatens, Ohio State and Clemson are absolutely in IMO.
So...who gets left out?
In this scenario, you're going to have a one-loss conference championship on the outside looking in...maybe more than one.
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CU Medallion [65604]
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Georgia winning out would be the nightmare scenario for
Nov 7, 2019, 9:38 AM
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the SEC. Their loss to the Coots cannot be spun as anything other than a TERRIBLE loss. The Coots were, after all, BEATEN by the same "bad" UNC team that is being used to downgrade Clemson because they played us close. Plus, Georgia just does not pass the famed "eye test" this year. Their offense looks plain and predictable, and Fromm looks like he will soon be going back to State Farm. At 12-1 Champions, the Committee would be forced to put them in, but they would cringe while doing it.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Georgia would be in for sure
Nov 7, 2019, 9:38 AM
[ in reply to What if Georgia manages to win out and wins the $EC title... ] |
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And i still believe the last spot would go to either Oregon or Oklahoma. I think Bama would be screwed. Too many powerful people would get pissed off if TWO 12-1 conference champs got left out for a second SEC team.
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CU Medallion [65604]
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They might well be pissed off, because this would be the
Nov 7, 2019, 9:41 AM
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time the Committee would use that strength of schedule, control of games, and other assorted bullpiss to rationalize their way to putting in a 12-1 Bama over a similar 12-1 Conference Champion. Money talks, and nobody has more of it from TV contracts, bowl tie ins, etc, than the SEC.
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Orange Blooded [2928]
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Re: They might well be pissed off, because this would be the
Nov 7, 2019, 11:18 AM
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I don't see Bama getting in over another 1 loss conference champ, immediately after losing the SEC Championship game.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Mine personally?
Nov 7, 2019, 6:03 PM
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Just going to assume the other favorites win out for simplicity... although they likely all wont
1) 13-0 Ohio State 2) 13-0 Clemson 3) 12-1 Georgia 4) 12-1 Oklahoma* 5) 12-0 Oregon 6) 12-1 LSU/Bama winner that loses to Georgia 7) 11-1 LSU/Bama loser 8) 11-1 Penn State?
Seems realllly unlikely we end up with that many 0 and 1 loss teams though.
*I think the committee would take Oregon over Oklahoma though since they already have them rated higher right now and I don't think there's much left to change that. I just happen to think Oklahoma is better than Oregon.
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Orange Blooded [3047]
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Re: Mine personally?
Nov 7, 2019, 6:15 PM
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Ohio St. Clemson UGA Bama
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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CU Medallion [65604]
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LOL! That is just because you have not been properly
Nov 7, 2019, 10:01 AM
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brainwashed into the ESPiN / SEC mindset yet. But, you will be assimilated by the Borg eventually.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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Rock Defender [54]
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110%er [7179]
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To Answer!
Nov 7, 2019, 6:15 PM
[ in reply to What if Georgia manages to win out and wins the $EC title... ] |
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Let's just say, for example...
Bama beats LSU handily this week.
Georgia wins out and beats Bama for the $EC championship.
You now have three $EC teams with one loss.
Ohio State wins out and wins the BIG championship.
Oklahoma wins out and wins the Big XII championship.
Oregon wins out and wins the Pac 12 championship.
Clemson wins out and wins the ACC championship.
Bama is 12 - 1
LSU is 11 - 1
Georgia is 12 - 1 and $EC champions
Ohio State is 13 - 0 and BIG champions
Oklahoma is 12 - 1 and champions of the BigXII
Oregon is 12 - 1 and champions of the Pac12
Clemson is 13 - 0 and champions of the ACC
As the only unbeatens, Ohio State and Clemson are absolutely in IMO.
So...who gets left out?
In this scenario, you're going to have a one-loss conference championship on the outside looking in...maybe more than one.
I agree with you: Clemson and Ohio State will be in w/o question.
1. Ohio State 2. Clemson 3. 4. It won't be Georgia off the rip - conference champion or not - their one loss was to a sub .500 team "AT HOME". It won't be Oregon - who lost to Auburn who would finish with no less than 4 losses if everything else you said is the case. Oklahoma lost to at the time unranked K-State. But, their one loss is still better than the Georgia loss. *** This leaves the only other two 1 loss teams in your scenario. LSU and Alabama to occupy the 3 and the 4.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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The most likely scenario is that we end up in the 2/3
Nov 7, 2019, 9:33 AM
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game against the SEC or Big Ten champ. If both happen to be undefeated we will be the 3 seed. If one of them finishes 12-1 we could possibly be the 2 seed, but it doesn't really matter aside from uniform color.
I do not think it's a given that the SEC champ is #1 ahead of Ohio State if the Buckeyes were to win out.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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The seeding only matters if...
Nov 7, 2019, 9:37 AM
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you care where you play your semi-final game.
Obviously Clemson would prefer to play in Atlanta as opposed to Glendale (again).
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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If we are in the 2/3 game we don't have a choice though***
Nov 7, 2019, 5:59 PM
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All-In [39020]
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110%er [6825]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 10:19 AM
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Basically, the undefeated conference champs are in.
Clemson, LSU or Bama, OSU/Minn or Ped State - Baylor (seriously since they would likely beat OU twice).
If less than 4 undefeated, it goes to the "eye test" which would be Oregon, B10 1-loser champ and the SEC "l loser champ"
I do not see a 1 loss non-champ getting in unless there are 2 loss conference champs in the mix (For example a 1 loss Alabama/LSU would be in over a 2 loss UGA SEC Champ or similar)
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Orange Blooded [2563]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 10:21 AM
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I can see it playing out like this:
LSU beats Bama, goes on to lose to UGA in the SECCG (basically a home game for the dogs).
UGA gets in as the SECC.
LSU gets in because they won the west and "pass the eye test".
Bama gets in because Bama.. and "they also pass the eye test". ("eye test" and Bama go hand in hand)
And then Ohio State - they're a blue blood and the best team ever. They'll get in too.
Bama plays UGA, Bama wins.
LSU plays Ohio State, LSU wins.
LSU plays Bama, Bama wins.
Us idiots that complain about Bama getting in when they haven't even won their division, we're called out as being idiots, since obviously the best team won.
C'mon guys - we've seen this play out before..
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CU Guru [1047]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 10:23 AM
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Good read. The committee showed that dollars rule in setting up two top 4 matches with playoff potential for t.v. ratings instead of who deserves to be in top 4. They will find excuses to go with their bias. They have an agenda, and it's not who is best. If one of their agendas were to be to justify an expanded playoff they have a golden opportunity by holding Clemson at #5.
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Rock Defender [54]
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I’m actually more on favor of an 8 team playoff
Nov 7, 2019, 10:32 AM
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Orange Blooded [2563]
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Re: I’m actually more on favor of an 8 team playoff
Nov 7, 2019, 10:39 AM
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Completely against this.
#1, I don't believe any "at-large" teams deserve to get in. "At-Large" = Eye Test and we all know it. All this will be is a way to stuff in a couple more SECW teams that lost 2-3 regular season games.
#2, If we expand to 8, then we hear b1tching from #9-12, complaining about how they, with their 9-3 or 8-4 records deserve to be in, how they beat #6 or something in the regular season.. Next thing we know, we're at 16. *And before people tell me I'm crazy, I remember how the narrative was "a 4 team playoff would be perfect.. No reason to go any more than that." Money rules all - before long, we've got a 8 game regular season and then a 32 team playoff.
I hate it for the G5 teams - it does suck for them and it has to be killing them in recruiting.. but, expanding the playoffs is not the answer.
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Orange Blooded [3290]
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Re: I’m actually more on favor of an 8 team playoff
Nov 7, 2019, 10:59 AM
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1 O310 St 13-0 B1G preTENd Champ 2 LSU/Bama SEC Champ 13-0 3 Clemson ACC Champ 13-0 4 Big Deal (not sure if 10 or 12 teams conf) Champs Oklahoma 12-1/Baylor 13-0 Or Oregon 12-1 PAC C/SEC 1 loss/B1G preTENd 1 loss
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All-In [39020]
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Plus, by the end of the season, there are almost NEVER 5+
Nov 7, 2019, 6:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: I’m actually more on favor of an 8 team playoff ] |
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teams that have a legitimate claim to best in the country.
Usually the question is which less-than-deserving 4th team is getting in.
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Orange Blooded [3639]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 11:52 AM
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According to 538, the loser of LSU/Alabama is very unlikely to make the CFP (LSU is 13%, Alabama is 7%).
Next in line behind Clemson, the undefeated B1G champ and the SEC champ is:
Oklahoma (89% if they win out) Oregon (74% if they win out) Utah (70% if they win out)
Baylor is at 94% if they win out but they are much more likely to finish 8-4 than 12-0.
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All-In [38429]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 6:07 PM
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I think Utes beat Ducks in Pac12 .
Also , I think Oklahoma has a very good argument ( as much as a 1 loss SEC non-champ does ) if they win out and take the Big12 .
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All-In [40938]
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you are missing some losses
Nov 7, 2019, 6:13 PM
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the talk will be which 2 loss team deserves to be in over which 1 loss team with only 1 undefeated team left.
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CU Guru [1457]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 6:19 PM
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Mic Drop!
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110%er [5712]
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Re: What is most LIKELY to be the scenario at the end of this
Nov 7, 2019, 6:24 PM
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I don’t know and neither do any of you other bumpkins.
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