Replies: 26
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Team Captain [499]
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Average of all polls site RCP
Nov 1, 2020, 8:21 PM
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Has Biden up 7.2% and leads in most battleground states. This is considered a very reliable average of all polls service, that the left and right acknowledge has a good reputation. It was actually founded by two center right Republicans 20 years ago. It’s only tightened slightly in the last couple of weeks.
So many of you seem to be hanging your hat on Trumps larger rallies than Biden’s, or sighting one or two polls that show Trump winning that have a reputation for being right leaning.
RCP post betting odds. It shows Trump with a 35% chance of winning. This seems reasonable to me.
If any of you think it’s not reasonable, would you be willing to put your money where your mouth is and take even odds that Trump will win?
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Why do you think an average of unverified results will yoeld
Nov 1, 2020, 8:28 PM
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The correct result? Please assplain your logic....
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: Why do you think an average of unverified results will yoeld
Nov 1, 2020, 8:33 PM
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I don’t know how I could’ve been more clear. Will you answer the question? Would you take even odds in a bet that Trump will win?
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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You have explained nothing; just made claims
Nov 1, 2020, 8:38 PM
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Are you a 13 year old?
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Let me help you cause I don’t think you are worth
Nov 1, 2020, 8:41 PM
[ in reply to Re: Why do you think an average of unverified results will yoeld ] |
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Arguing with. Polls are essentially non-scientific observations and have widely varying levels of accuracy. An average of all that inaccuracy does not make the combination more accurate.
Can you even comprehend this?
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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how are these polls conducted/ what are they based on?***
Nov 1, 2020, 8:40 PM
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Average of all polls site RCP
Nov 1, 2020, 8:51 PM
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Oculus Spirit [83625]
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Oh man if he’d just made us wear masks***
Nov 1, 2020, 8:55 PM
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Hall of Famer [24477]
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Orange Blooded [2203]
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Re: Average of all polls site RCP
Nov 1, 2020, 9:01 PM
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Man those are some cruel but true responses. I think it is close and Trump will win but that is me. I think God will do his will what ever that might be. I am hoping for a Trump non communist win but it is in God's hands.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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if Trump is within 3 points in state polls, it's likely going
Nov 1, 2020, 9:08 PM
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Red
Republican turnout on Tuesday will be 70-80% higher than Democrat. Dems haven't built a big enough lead with early voting to hold it through Tuesday turnout... and they know it
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: if Trump is within 3 points in state polls, it's likely going
Nov 1, 2020, 9:33 PM
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Well if you’re going talk about polls, how does it not make sense to take the average of all of them? That’s just a logical thought. It’s OK to talk about a poll you like, but you don’t like the idea of talking about the average of all polls.
Betting odds imo are the best indicator. Roughly the betting polls are giving Trump a just greater than one in three chance of winning. One in three is not a bad chance. He may very well win. But when I ask would you bet even Trump will win, no one seems to be stepping up.
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Pretty obvious you know nothing about statistics***
Nov 1, 2020, 9:37 PM
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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i am not citing any poll... the polls you reference are
Nov 1, 2020, 9:37 PM
[ in reply to Re: if Trump is within 3 points in state polls, it's likely going ] |
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based on people willing to take a 20 minute survey on their cell phone...
It is fact that Republicans turn out much higher on election day than dems. Democrats hoped to build a big enough lead to hold off that wave, but they are clearly concerned, and for good reason.
As a matter of fact... it may not be close.
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: i am not citing any poll... the polls you reference are
Nov 1, 2020, 9:40 PM
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So you think all polls are just biased towards Democrats and aren’t motivated to get the numbers right and mean nothing? I’d be willing to bet the farm that if Trump were ahead, you would have a different view.
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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He didn’t say that...
Nov 1, 2020, 9:48 PM
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You’re not very smart, opants.
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Team Captain [499]
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Re: He didn’t say that...
Nov 1, 2020, 9:57 PM
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Bengaline, none of your responses have made any sense to me, and my guess is you’ve been drinking. It’s obvious to me you are trying to start a fight and being a bully, and I ain’t go in there dude. Hope you feel OK in the morning
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Sober as can be
Nov 1, 2020, 10:06 PM
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You are just very poorly informed or educated in the issues in your OP and will not or can defend your contention that averaging polls is logical. It is not and makes no sense at all. Find a friend of yours that has taken statistics and have a conversation with him. You will learn things.
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Team Captain [499]
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So I’m trying to understand
Nov 1, 2020, 10:13 PM
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your point. Is it that polls don’t matter at all? Or is it that one specific poll is more accurate than an average of all polls?
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: So I’m trying to understand
Nov 1, 2020, 10:15 PM
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Team Captain [499]
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But don’t you think
Nov 1, 2020, 10:25 PM
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the pollsters were embarrassed about the battleground States inaccuracy in 16 and have made attempts to correct them? Not saying that means they are totally accurate now, but have a hard time believing these polls are only motivated by their political leanings and not trying their best to get the number right.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: But don’t you think
Nov 1, 2020, 10:33 PM
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Polls are like sports pundits arguing why their team
Nov 1, 2020, 10:27 PM
[ in reply to So I’m trying to understand ] |
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Is the best. A poll’s purpose is to convince others of a scenario that may or may not occur. They are all biased. Averaging them serves little purpose other than the original purpose.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Polls are like sports pundits arguing why their team
Nov 1, 2020, 10:30 PM
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thank you for your authoritative biased opinion.
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Team Captain [499]
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Heisman Winner [119760]
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Did I say that?
Nov 1, 2020, 10:39 PM
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You do not listen well....
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Orange Blooded [2203]
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Re: So Bengaline you are saying
Nov 1, 2020, 11:11 PM
[ in reply to So Bengaline you are saying ] |
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In today's environment polls make one side or the other to go out and vote and other stay @ home because their person has already won.
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Replies: 26
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