Committees Mission

Dec 3, 2023, 1:06 AM

The CFP Committee’s mission is to pick the 4 best teams. The question that is not getting asked, though, is when?

Lots are saying FSU looked nothing like a top 4 team tonight. I don’t agree, but for argument’s sake, let say I concede the point. Does the CFP pick the four best teams tomorrow? Or are they picking the 4 best teams on January 1? I say they pick for Jan 1.

Before you jump all over me and say I am a lunatic, recall 2017. I would argue that the Tide in 2017 were nowhere near top 4 on Selection Sunday. Recall they were a battered team who had lost to Auburn and did not make the SECCG. IMO they would have been blown out by all of the other CFP teams if they had played on Selection Sunday. Instead, they got in and had a chance to heal/prepare, ultimately winning it all.

Now use that same lens for FSU. They played today the way they had to in order to win today. They had a week to prepare their freshman quarterback for a championship game and they played particularly conservatively - just like all of the other contenders would have. Does that mean their offense will be this anemic/conservative come playoff time? No. I think with a month to prepare, that team would be a force to be reckoned with.

So, as you can probably tell, I think if FSU gets left out, it is two things 1) the committee breaking precedent and 2) showing their true bias.

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I see your point, but think that is the wrong question. Since they could lose to all 3 of the other playoff teams and still be the 4th best, the right question would be who outside of the CFP would FSU lose to?

So, let’s play that game. For argument’s sake, let’s say the undefeateds are all “better” and therefore not up for debate. That leaves AL, UGA, TX, and OSU. Is there an objective argument that any of those are definitely better? Sure, there are “eye test” or “SEC! SEC! SEC!” arguments, but every one of those teams have lost while they have not. Further, I would put FSU’s schedule as at least as challenging as all of theirs.

Now, let me turn the tables and ask you which team not amongst the unbeatens is objectively better? The arguments I hear all revolve around Jordan Travis being removed from the equation. That argument certainly could be true, and judging by today’s results, it would probably be fair to say the only teams that played championship weekend FSU were better than were Louisville and Iowa. However, I don’t think you can say that for Jan 1. We just don’t know.

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