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Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
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All-TigerNet [12539]
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Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 8, 2022, 9:23 PM
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as it seems.
1. Obviously there are three main issues: money, path to playoff, and perceived status based on conference membership.
2. If Clemson were to get in invite from the SEC or BigTen, it would have to look at the decision making from a lot of different angles.
3. It's not as easy as let's make more money, even if there is a way around the GOR. Would Clemson want to make more money and move to the SEC, even if the ACC still had the same access to the playoff? Clemson is in one of the best positions to make the playoff as any other team in the country. What if Clemson moved to the SEC and the ACC remained with the same access to the playoff. Do we sit there and count our money and regret as we watch Virginia Tech earn our playoff spot each year. I think we can make the playoff from the SEC, but let's face it, nobody will make it from that league as often as from the ACC.
If the ACC doesn't lose anyone, and it is not perceived to be a group of five type deal, then maybe it would not be a disaster to stay. It might even work out better to stay. But if the ACC is going to be considered to be a lower tier and have a very narrow path to the playoff, then if there are options to leave, it might be the right time to do so.
scenarios:
Best Case: With an equal path to playoff and a somewhat improved payout, remain in the ACC. The increased payout would require Notre Dame joining in full and that is not going to happen. So is it worth it to get much less money per year in exchange for an easier path to the playoff? It would be bad to find ourselves in the SEC and then realize the ACC still has the same access. Like the country song, Who's that Man Running My Life, it would be like, who's that team running my conference.
Next Best: Go to either the BIG or SEC, whichever one offers. Make a lot more money, never have to worry about being considered in a lower tier, have a more difficult path to the playoff (although remember you get one or two forgivable Ls in SEC}.
Worst Case: Do not get invite to SEC or BIG, while other ACC members depart, leaving us in a league that is considered a lower level. This would also mean much less, if any, access to the playoff.
As people are saying, Notre Dame is indeed the key. If they stay put, then there may not be much movement for a while. The minute they accept the BIGTen offer, it means the BIG will be offering one to three more schools. That also means the SEC would begin their poaching.
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All-TigerNet [12539]
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And the problem is, there is no time to be indecisive. When
Jul 8, 2022, 9:28 PM
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the offer comes, Clemson may have to make a decision, with many of the other moving part still in question.
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Oculus Spirit [90819]
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50-50 whether ND stays or goes.
Jul 8, 2022, 9:31 PM
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Many predict they still want to stay independent for awhile more..
so with that being a guide, and no invite to Clemson from either SEC or BIG, I predict we stay in ACC and try to get a renewed TV deal.
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All-TigerNet [12539]
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Yes, they don't have to be in a hurry. Real quiet now.***
Jul 8, 2022, 9:38 PM
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110%er [8538]
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Re: Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 8, 2022, 9:40 PM
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As long as Dabo has our program ranked as high as we can be this year, we will make the Playoffs if we are undefeated even if we are in the ACC. There is guarantee we would make the Playoff with a loss even if the ACC is better. Best case for me is stay where we are, add 2 schools, increase the tv contract, make the Playoff and kick the wanna be Super Conference to the curb.
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All-TigerNet [12539]
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Agree, but the only problem with that could be
Jul 8, 2022, 9:42 PM
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that the BiG and SEC shut everyone out of the playoff. Not sure how they could do that to so many schools and consider their title to be legit, but that has been talk of that.
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Oculus Spirit [76963]
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CU Guru [1761]
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Re: Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 8, 2022, 9:48 PM
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The 4 team playoff will be a thing of the past soon. It will expand to at least the 12 that SEC wanted last years that got all of this craziness going. I would love to have status quo 4 team CFP, that is all there really needs to be. But the $&& says there needs to be more. And the SEC and B1G Drive the $$. So we need to go to the $$ and be one of the top three or 4 in the SEC and playoff access continues.
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Starter [361]
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Playoff access is short term consideration…..
Jul 8, 2022, 9:53 PM
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The long term difference is the money. The difference is quoted as $50M+ per year. The quality of all ACC programs immediately decline. This is too big to ignore.
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Orange Blooded [3639]
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Thank you
Jul 9, 2022, 12:41 PM
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I don't see how anyone can forget this.
Staying in the ACC guarantees Clemson football will decline to irrelevancy. $50 million/year difference in revenue between staying in the ACC and joining either of the big 2 is a good estimate.
Staying in the ACC is NOT an option under any circumstances.
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Legend [17915]
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Respectfully, the decision is easy if you have goals.
Jul 8, 2022, 10:01 PM
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The ACC will not offer a path to the playoff in the near future. Well, perhaps if the team is undefeated. How often will Clemson do that with decreased funds?
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110%er [7179]
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Re: Respectfully, the decision is easy if you have goals.
Jul 8, 2022, 10:21 PM
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The ACC will not offer a path to the playoff in the near future. Well, perhaps if the team is undefeated. How often will Clemson do that with decreased funds?
Remember - the schools are not the ones paying the NIL deals!
Decreased funds! A kid doesn't care where the money is coming from; I would imagine. And, if they are going to go to say Texas and sit on the bench just for some bucks: "why not go somewhere else where they can make the money and actually play"? Which would give them an opportunity to put videos out for pro scouts which is the ultimate goal.
You can still only play 11 at a time.
You still only get 85 scholarships.
This means you had still better get the evaluation process right before bringing a recruit in.
Look at how many kids Clemson has brought in and made in the college football world at least, household names! James Skalski - 3-star. Isiah Simmons 3-star. On Rivals Travis Etienne was a 3-star. Grady Jarrett was a 2-star. As long as Dabo is Coach we will be alright talent-wise - getting the opportunity to play could be problematic if a stranglehold is put on the championship by the powers that be.
Also note: Alabama had the #1 composite class in 2015 when they needed an onside kick and a hurt Mike Williams to beat Clemson who had the #17 ranked composite class. We will be alright either way.
Dabo is the truth!
https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2017/travis-etienne-11589
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Legend [17915]
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Re: Respectfully, the decision is easy if you have goals.
Jul 9, 2022, 7:26 AM
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Will the NIL pay for coaching or facility upgrades? The issue does not lie with the players getting paid. The issue lies with the schools getting paid.
And, of course, there is always the diamond in the rough kind of player out there. Clemson should be able to a find a few along the way... but is that what we will rest our laurels on?
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Legend [17610]
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Best Case scenario presented is a false premise
Jul 8, 2022, 10:26 PM
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The PAC 12 and BIG12 have been shut out from the playoffs multiple times. The ACC can be/will be as well without Clemson and with less talented recruits and teams. SEC and B1G teams will have program revenue available to create their own NIL payment plan with so many recruits who can advertise for charities, local good causes and the school. ACC schools will be fighting to maintain facilities and recruiting budgets with 30-40% of network revenue.
Your "Next Best" scenario is the best competitive solution for Clemson as the "have" and "have nots" will separate. Clemson alums rightfully want it all - a top tier football program and high tier academic programs. Both the SEC and the B1G can provide this path. My preference is the SEC due to geographics and road games. Clemson will blend in well academically with Texas, Florida and Georgia and Vandy will continue to be an outlier strong private presence. The opportunity cost of remaining in the ACC is to see Clemson struggle to keep up with usc, Miss State, Kentucky, Mizzou and others as big name coaches and players over a decade transition to the schools with better facilities, coaching, opportunities and revenue.
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All-In [48330]
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Re: Best Case scenario presented is a false premise
Jul 8, 2022, 11:16 PM
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^^^ spot on ^^^
I'd add to the scenario above that even if Clemson and ACC received the same amount of dollars, you're talking years, if not decades for the ACC to become the premiere conference. Pains me to say this but the SEC is really heads and tails above the ACC in most sports.
Yes, they're upsets and the ACC occasionally has a Virginia win the CWS, a lacrosse championship etc. But as Soc laid out, eventually better competition leads to better opportunities for coaches and staff. And I'm looking at this once tex and okc join. For all sports, it's the prudent move.
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110%er [7179]
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SocMan2
Jul 8, 2022, 11:33 PM
[ in reply to Best Case scenario presented is a false premise ] |
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SocMan2 - you and I are entitled to our opinion. I understand that and I do not want to seem argumentative here.
But, Clemson has already for Years and Years(this didn't just start) been at a disadvantage when it comes to the things you mentioned.
What you are saying is something different that "hasn't happened yet"! I.E. a lockout of teams not in the Big 10 or SEC by virtue of vote.
The boosters at those schools have always done what they are doing now! Just now; it's in the open. There are only so many 5-star players yearly, right. So many 4-stars as well! Unless they start doing a Kentucky or more recently Duke and gathering at the same school. Well, Alabama had something close to that going on; but they were not ever guaranteed any of their championships still. Even with a legendary coach SocMan2.
But, you still have to play together and want to play for each other! Many talented rosters out there more talented than Clemson was in 2015 but they wasn't the ones pushing #1 overall class Alabama and their Hall of Fame coach to the point he needed a trick play to get the win!
In other words, we don't need all of them SocMan2. We just need enough in each class to buy in and be happy! It's the same formula we have already been using if you think about it. I could reel off more 3-star players who became college football household names. This rise to the very pentacle of the sport was not by way of "every player being a 5-star"! That's fact that you can check up on.
Keep that handful you need happy and develop the rest if you have to.
Not worried about on the field as long as Dabo is coach.
If the Big 10, who again is supposed to be a football conference, but hasn't sent but 1 team to play for a NC in 23 years vs. woeful ACC that sent 4 current member teams during that same time span get a pass I question why? Money, right?
That same money has been there. Did it buy them a championship yet? They have the best payout in college football - yet only Ohio State has danced???? Really?
The SEC is better at the top! And Top Only - all the schools in the SEC aren't "loaded" that's just what the perception is. This is why Nick is so worried.
I just don't see it playing out like that as quickly as you and many others think. At least, not as quick as folks are saying. Not without it getting far uglier and messy and turning a bunch of people off; including people who might benefit. Some people don't like shooting at fish in a barrel; they prefer to have to work for it and not avoid the hunt just because it's tough. Some of the schools that everyone is saying would be left out have more than football going for them. They have other influential people in other words who I predict would create a huge stink about what they would see as a slight if anything were to be put in any type official "lockout" of traditionally eligible teams.
Like so many other things; I can proudly say(not all but many) I strongly believe this will be one people will look back on and go: "we overreacted"! To each their own, thumbs up for you!
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CU Medallion [55420]
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Re: Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 8, 2022, 11:46 PM
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Where ever Clemson lands in the future, they will still play for National Championships, Period!!!
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Legend [16439]
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Re: Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 9, 2022, 8:25 AM
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1) the money difference is more than a full playoff share EVERY YEAR
2) to be the man, you gotta beat the man…the only way to continue to improve is to increase the quality of the opponents
3) in the SEC or B1G, you definitely make the playoffs with one loss, and maybe with two
4) in another conference, we get the chance to eliminate potential CFP teams IN THE REGULAR SEASON
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110%er [5099]
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Re: Clemson's decision, if there are options, is not as simple
Jul 9, 2022, 12:06 PM
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Great topic with some nice replies. I may be in the minority but I hope the ACC finds a way to get stronger and Clemson stays. The TV money between the SEC and ACC doesn't have to be equal but somewhat close. Clemson has been working with less for years and have been okay.
My worry about staying is recruiting. If it's perceived that the ACC is not somewhat close to the Big or SEC in relevance then recruiting will suffer.
The question is can the ACC get better and get a better TV contract.
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