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3 - 3 - 3
General Boards - Politics
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Replies: 4
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3 - 3 - 3

1
Feb 6, 2025, 2:27 PM
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Y'all buy this?

Bessent and co is honing in on the 10 yr (which I agree with) and his thesis hinges on three 3's:
- 3% GDP growth (need to counteract the DOGE cuts, plus tariffs) - Reach
- 3% fiscal deficit of GDP (got a long way to go, north 6's now, I think?)
- 3m bpd additional oil production in US (I don't see this happening)

So the good? They UST is focusing on the 10-year and not the Fed Funds rate. Bessent feels if we hit these three benchmarks we can stabilize the 10-year into a pro-growth range (organic eradication of inflation).

I buy the thesis of attacking the 10-year. I buy the thesis that hitting these three benchmarks delivers a desirable 10-year range.

The bad? I don't see how 2 of these happen. I think 3% GDP is going to be a stretch, especially with all these autist going ham on the gubmint opex spending, until 2H 2026. Even worse, I do not see American oil shops cranking out 3m bpd additional...all my buddies in Houston have said for years they learned their lesson in the early 10s (the shale boom).

Good interview:
https://youtu.be/NlvB93cQ0bI


Speaking of the Treasury - anyone watching or paying attention to the gold market? Great Scott Batman

2025 orange level member flag link
military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

None of it is achieveable....


Feb 6, 2025, 3:26 PM
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The tariffs & mass deportations will increase inflation, and slow down the economy. When this happens, the deficit will increase.

And even if Trump doesn't follow through with some of his publicized policies, getting 3% growth on a sustained basis is very unlikely, unless we increase immigration alot, which aint happenin.

I don't think oil will see an appreciable production bump, as we're already producing more than any country in history ever.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

3% deficit to GDP is achievable


Feb 6, 2025, 3:39 PM
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granted it's weaker than puppy ####, but achievable.

No mention of government spending impacting GDP (or inflation for that matter) huh? Curious as to your rationale here.

I agree with you on oil.

Agree on immigration negatively impacting GDP as well in the immediate term.

2025 orange level member flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Well, I'm going off of his stated policies....


Feb 6, 2025, 5:55 AM
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which we all know are subject to whim and are malleable. But if he implements yuuuuuuge tariffs ("the likes of which we've never seen before") and a massive deportation, then it will be inflationary, and that will trigger a recession, and deficits will go up.

It's hard to know what he actually thinks from one day to the next, and therefore how serious he is on anything.

flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Re: 3 - 3 - 3


Feb 6, 2025, 3:54 PM
Reply

As you pretty much said, would be cool goals to strive for if he weren't surrounded by idiots who will continue to make terrible decisions that make this impossible.

2025 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

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General Boards - Politics
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