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Topic: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )
Replies: 15   Last Post: Jun 6, 2019 12:48 PM by: HillRockTiger
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Replies: 15  

When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )

[17]
Posted: Jun 5, 2019 9:19 PM
 

I don't even know what to say about this guy... Walt ripped him and it was awesome.

http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2019/06/05/when-reliance-on-metrics-go-too-far-clemson-44-alabama-16/



Favorite quote from that article...

[8]
Posted: Jun 5, 2019 9:27 PM
 

..."Even I’ll admit Clemson wouldn’t beat Alabama by 28 every time they played, because in some of those games it would have been more than 28. Clemson backed off with subs in the 4th quarter and went to primarily running the ball. It could have (been) far worse."

lol

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GO find the video "California Dreaming" and go straight to

[5]
Posted: Jun 5, 2019 9:27 PM
 

the black and white portion.The producer of the video put together a string of excuses made buy numberous BAMA and USofEC fans....One of them created about 40 points for Bama which actually gave them a win....

2019 white level member

Re: GO find the video "California Dreaming" and go straight to

[1]
Posted: Jun 6, 2019 12:41 AM
 

That's the best part of the video , really .
I guess it'sa little window into the world today . If you don't like the reality of an outcome , reverse logic and move some data around until the butthurt goes away .

#NoMoreTearsLike...Ever.

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DB23


Here you go

[1]
Posted: Jun 6, 2019 11:13 AM
 

https://youtu.be/5guEqIfLoGI?t=2366

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There's something in these hills.


solid article.. pretty much sums up Bill Conelly is insane***

[1]
Posted: Jun 6, 2019 1:17 AM
 



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Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 4:29 AM
 

Does metrics in this case mean numbers he pulled out of his a$$?

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Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 5:47 AM
 

I'm so glad this intelligent reporter (who no one had heard of before this comment) pointed out that Bama had a much better "Succ" rate.

*In my best Herm Edwards voice* - "You play to win the game."


Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )

[2]
Posted: Jun 6, 2019 6:24 AM
 

The only metric that matters is the final score.


Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )

[5]
Posted: Jun 6, 2019 7:56 AM
 

Forgive me but my limited "Clemson" engineering coursework tells me that if the prediction model says one thing and the results say another, you go go back and change the model to address shortcomings.

Changing the outcome (mentally) to satisfy the errors in the model sounds like a coot engineering. No wonder the coots are so optimistic.


Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 8:03 AM
 

You're going to be a very good addition to someone's team. Your logic and methods are sound.

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Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 8:33 AM
 

Well said. I would also argue that modeling at the extremes of the data set has a statistically lower chance of being accurate. The model will be improved by the additional data from Clemson vs Bama IV. Still over the last 5 years we have only seen 8-10 teams at that level. That means 2 data points per season. Some say 17 data points for statistical significance, others say 30. Combined with the time frame can you ever expect it to be a good predictor for top teams?

null


Not sure about that. Flipping a coin heads 10 times in a row


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 11:41 AM
 

probably doesn't warrant changing the odds of a coin flip from 50/50.

One football game is a tiny sample size and nowhere near enough to justify making changes to something like S&P+.

You must always account for variance.


Data was Skewed!


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 12:48 PM
 

The metrics used were skewed for both teams!

CU played a ton of players in almost all games! Alabama didn't play Tua Turn - the - Ball - over most of the 4th quarters they played. They smoked the SEC like a red headed step child.

Over hyped conference and "BAM"!

Your data suggest something that "ISN'T REAL"!


Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 9:05 AM
 

What a tool. This guy leaves out on extremely significant point - that most of Bama’s “success” occurred BETWEEN the 20 yard lines. They couldn’t do crap INSIDE the 20’s. CBV to be credited with a brilliant (IMO) defensive game plan to neutralize the Tide’s passing attack


Re: When metrics go too far ( 44 - 16 )


Posted: Jun 6, 2019 10:27 AM
 

The game was over when Clemson went up 14-7. Alabama didn't know how to face adversity. Someone was actually fighting back. The scored soon after, but when that PAT hit the upright, the air went out of them. They played desperate and panicky after that.


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