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Topic: There's a good chance we will see a top-10 upset on Sat
Replies: 6   Last Post: Sep 21, 2017 10:02 AM by: Salty55
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There's a good chance we will see a top-10 upset on Sat

[1]
Posted: Sep 21, 2017 8:30 AM
    Reply

While week 4's slate of games doesn't look like much at first glance, 5 of the nation's top 10 teams are making tricky road trips.

#1 Alabama at Vanderbilt
#4 Penn State at Iowa
#5 USC at Cal
#7 Washington at Colorado
#8 Michigan at Purdue

While none of those may appear to be likely upsets, we have sheer numbers on our side. S&P+ gives the favorites the following odds of winning:

Bama - 88%
Michigan - **85%
USC - 80%
Penn State - 79%
Washington - 75%

**Michigan is still being propped up by high preseason projections while Purdue has greatly outperformed theirs and is still being held down. As those continue to be phased out you should see Michigan drop and Purdue rise in the rankings. TLDR: Michigan doesn't actually have an 85% chance to win this game.. it's definitely less than that... probably somewhere in the 70s.

Even so, the odds of all 5 of these teams winning using the odds above is just 35%. There's no telling where the upset could come so this is definitely one of those weekends to keep the remote handy.


Re: There's a good chance we will see a top-10 upset on Sat


Posted: Sep 21, 2017 9:24 AM
    Reply

While this is interesting and I'd love to see top 10 chaos (Clemson excluded), I am most impressed that you did the math correctly on at least one of the 5 teams losing. You don't see that everyday on an internet message board :)

#nerdproblems


Given five doors with a Tiger behind one of them


Posted: Sep 21, 2017 9:28 AM
    Reply

What are the odds of choosing the wrong door (Tiger behind it, aggressive and hungry) at the beginning and after each successive door if the Tiger is not behind the first one? And would you be absolutely surprised at the unexpected happening to equal degrees as you proceed through the doors? (What if you go through four doors and he was not behind any of them and you're facing number five?)


Re: There's a good chance we will see a top-10 upset on Sat


Posted: Sep 21, 2017 9:32 AM
    Reply

The Colorado and Iowa games will be the biggest upset potential games in my opinion.

Iowa will use ball control to slow down Penn State. Run it all night long. Maybe it'll work.


I wouldn't totally discount Purdue. Jeff Brohm is a heckuva

[1]
Posted: Sep 21, 2017 9:47 AM
    Reply

coach and Michigan has really struggled to score TDs so far this year. We will see what kind of offense Purdue can generate against a nasty Michigan D though.


Re: I wouldn't totally discount Purdue. Jeff Brohm is a heckuva


Posted: Sep 21, 2017 10:02 AM
    Reply

I do like Purdue's chances. They really had opportunities against L'ville...and took Missouri to the shed...sorta like the mid-state birds...only better.

Unless USC gets their act together, Cal could be a problem for them. I don't know what to think about Iowa...but they seem good a shocker each year at Kinnick.


Re: There's a good chance we will see a top-10 upset on Sat


Posted: Sep 21, 2017 9:58 AM
    Reply

Probably want happen but I hope they all lose........Go Tigers!!!!


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