Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings

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Re: Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings

Feb 4, 2013, 4:15 PM [ in reply to Re: Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings ]

The regression model on recruiting data assigns each team a rating that outputs an expected margin of victory against an average team, as alluded to above. Sorting schools by this rating creates a ranking system that can be compared with the preseason AP Poll. To determine which rankings were more accurate for a given year, I assessed each ranking system against the final AP Poll. For each team in the preseason AP Top 25 from 2009-12, I determined which poll -- the regression Rivals' rating or the preseason AP Poll -- offered a closer approximation of the team's year-end ranking. For example, the Rivals' model ranked Alabama No. 1 in 2012, while the preseason AP Poll listed the Crimson Tide at No. 2. Since 'Bama won the national championship and topped the final AP Poll, the Rivals' model "won" for this particular team. In some circumstances, the two rankings can also tie.

By using the last four seasons in this study, there were 100 teams to analyze. The Rivals' model served as an equally good or more accurate predictor than the preseason AP Poll 46 out of the 100 times; this corresponds to a win-loss-tie record of 42-54-4. The comparison for the 2012 season is charted directly below this section.

Keep in mind: The Rivals' model only considers the talent level of players who signed a National Letter of Intent when they were in high school. The model does not account for coaching, on-field performance, early NFL draft declarations, injuries or any other extenuating circumstance. Considering that the preseason AP Poll does take these factors into consideration, the success of the Rivals' rankings is somewhat remarkable.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20130204/recruiting-rankings-predictive-accuracy/#ixzz2Jy2INFyL

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Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings

Re: Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings

My first thought. Especially true for perennial programs.***

Re: Recruit Update: Analyzing the predictive capability of recruiting rankings

As I stated above... perennial powers... and BCS rankings.***

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