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Replies: 13
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1st Rounder [632]
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Ranking based on opponent and opponent’s opponent record
Oct 14, 2019, 9:30 PM
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Sorry in advance if this is already pointed out somewhere obvious, but I don’t have a ton of time to web surf.
I see different rankings out there, and many of them focus on which ranked teams each team has beat. But every ranked team had been ranked based on opinion.
Is there a poll or ranking out there that takes into account what the records are of the teams a particular team has played, with advanced metrics down to the records of the teams those teams an opponent’s team have played?
Seems this would give a clearer picture of the worthiness of a team to be ranked a certain place.
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Legend [18407]
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1st Rounder [632]
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Re: Ranking based on opponent and opponent’s opponent record
Oct 14, 2019, 10:41 PM
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Well, gives weight to preseason ranking, albeit less as time goes on, and gives weight to margin of victory which is bullocks when you consider some teams put in 2nd and 3rd string earlier than other teams.
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CU Medallion [57133]
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Re: Ranking based on opponent and opponent’s opponent record
Oct 14, 2019, 11:01 PM
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If they adjust for how many players get in the game it might compensate for the margin of victory crap.
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1st Rounder [632]
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Just leave it out all together
Oct 15, 2019, 8:51 PM
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Margin of victory should not be a factor, at all. Sometimes a close win can mean the losing team showed up to play and the winner had to fight hard and show character to win as opposed to a landslide victory where the loser gave up early and never even put up a fight. Wins and losses only.
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Commissioner [990]
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Re: Just leave it out all together***
Oct 15, 2019, 11:48 PM
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Commissioner [990]
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Re: Just leave it out all together
Oct 16, 2019, 12:06 AM
[ in reply to Just leave it out all together ] |
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I agree, margin of victory shouldn’t be a factor but I get why they use it. On paper the UNC game shouldn't have even been close. Sometimes talent doesn’t mean everything and Clemson fans are aware of that with several close calls over the last 4 years. Still, we have won almost all of those games.
But I will say that I’d love to see All these rankings metrics keep Clemson 4,5 or even 6. Keep this team focused on being there at the end. Making sure we are unbeaten and in the top 4 when it’s all said and done. This program has developed pride and a devotion to the culture Dabo has built.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Just leave it out all together
Oct 16, 2019, 1:17 PM
[ in reply to Just leave it out all together ] |
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I think the selection committee doesn't factor in margin of victory, but they do look at game control. I'm not sure of the exact details of how they do it, but basically they use common sense. Example being one team jumps out to a 42-0 lead early in the 3rd and goes on to win the game 49-17, and another team jumps out to a 42-0 lead, but keeps pouring it on to win 66-3 that they won't really look at those two games as being different because both teams had complete control of those games from start to finish. Basically this means the selection committee won't hold something like the last second touchdown by A&M against us.
However, this does mean that the UNC game wouldn't be a positive for us since we never really had complete control of that game until the last minute. Game control was actually something they brought up in our favor a lot last season.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Margin of victory is extremely important for predictive rankings
Oct 16, 2019, 3:54 PM
[ in reply to Re: Ranking based on opponent and opponent’s opponent record ] |
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Those are the kind of things that Vegas handicappers, hard core gamblers, and stat nerds use and they focus on trying to predict the outcomes of future games rather than ranking teams on record, merit, etc. ESPN fpi, s&p+, FEI, and some of sagarins ratings are all examples of predictive ratings and they really can't function without some reflection of MoV because (shocker) ratings are horribly inaccurate without it.
Most predictive rankings try to filter out garbage time thoug. There are certain parameters set to where data is filtered out once a team acquires a sizable enough lead in the game. We would've certainly hit garbage time early in the 3rd quarter against FSU so it's likely that nothing that occurred after Clemson went up 42-0 was factored into the data.
As mentioned by somebody else above me, the committee doesn't use MOV directly but they do place quite a bit of weight on "game control." This gives you credit for being in control of games without really awarding you extra for piling it on teams. The UNC game was not good in that regard either. And that's a big part of why we aren't higher in the polls right now. The other top 5 or 6 teams have either taken care of business with no close games (Bama, Ohio State, Wisconsin) and/or won big games (LSU, Oklahoma). We are still ahead of several of them despite the UNC game.
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Legend [19931]
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1st Rounder [632]
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exactly
Oct 15, 2019, 8:48 PM
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So the only way to have a truly unbiased ranking is to base it on win/loss only (margin of victory is crap) and records of opponents and records of opponents’ opponents (giving proper weight to division)
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110%er [5072]
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Re: exactly
Oct 16, 2019, 1:29 PM
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There's obviously no perfect way of doing things, but this way has its own flaws. It sounds good in theory, but it doesn't factor in teams with very weak OOC schedules. For example, VT is 4-2 and would be a more quality win with your idea than say Texas A&M at 3-3. 4-2 is a good record, but VT has a loss to BC, a 35 point loss to Duke. Their wins include a 17 point win over Rhode Island, a 7 point win over Furman, and a 14 point win over Old Dominion.
Or let's say you're a team playing next week against a 6-0 SMU team. That win would currently be as good as any win you could get in the country based on their record. I'm not sure I'd argue that a win over SMU should mean just as much as a win over Alabama or Clemson though.
I get that you're also saying to account for the record of opponents, but it's still not a perfect system is all I'm saying. I do think what you're saying is something the selection committee does look at though, so it is a factor.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Orange Blooded [4789]
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