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Hall of Famer [24995]
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Is college football the only sport where certain teams
Sep 8, 2016, 12:16 PM
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literally CANNOT win a championship even as the year begins? Every other sport, every team in theory could win a title.
But in college football there are quite a few teams who are not able to win one even if they win every game presented to them. I;m not even sure every power 5 team could let alone group of 5. If Wake Forest goes undefeated would they get into the playoff? If Wyoming goes undefeated they can forget about it.
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Rock Defender [71]
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In Wake's case? Absolutely they'd play in the playoffs. Wins
Sep 8, 2016, 12:32 PM
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at FSU, Louisville and vs Clemson at home would for sure get them in this year. Winning at Duke would be a good win too.
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All-In [27374]
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I wish you guys
Sep 8, 2016, 12:35 PM
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would lay off the pitiful yardbirds in Cootlumbia.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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They would have to play one of them in the B1GCG***
Sep 8, 2016, 12:52 PM
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Not if there are 5 undefeated P5 schools***
Sep 8, 2016, 2:27 PM
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All-TigerNet [14488]
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This is true
Sep 8, 2016, 2:46 PM
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I should have mentioned that
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Varsity [231]
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not quite period
Sep 8, 2016, 2:33 PM
[ in reply to If ANY power 5 school goes undefeated, they're in ] |
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If each power 5 conference has 1 undefeated team, then somebody is getting left out for sure. Or 4 undefeated P5s plus Notre Dame, ND may push a P5 out. Unlikely, but it could happen.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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It's not like that anymore
Sep 8, 2016, 12:37 PM
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Look at Houston right now. If we had playoffs back during Boise State's run, they would've had a chance. Any time a non-P5 school gets a good coach and a couple playmakers, they can get into the running.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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as a non power 5 you have to string together
Sep 8, 2016, 12:39 PM
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several years in a row. Like had App State beaten Tennessee would they have had a chance at the playoffs?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Yes***
Sep 8, 2016, 12:40 PM
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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I don't think so
Sep 8, 2016, 12:41 PM
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Maybe if that turned out to be Tennessee's only loss but other than Tennessee App State has Miami on the schedule and then the Sun Belt. I bet they would be torn to shreds as the season wore on, especially if Tennessee lost a few more and eventually get left out.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So you agree with me then that App State would have
Sep 8, 2016, 12:44 PM
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a chance at the playoff had they beaten Tennessee and ran the tables after that?
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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a small chance
Sep 8, 2016, 12:45 PM
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but ultimately I don't think they would get in.
No other team in the Sun Belt would have any chance at the playoff though no matter what they do.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So you agree then, good.
Sep 8, 2016, 12:49 PM
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Also, are you saying if Troy came to Death Valley, hands Clemson our only loss of the year and continues to run the table blowing out their opponents including App State that they wouldn't have a chance?
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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no they would not get in
Sep 8, 2016, 12:51 PM
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listen there were writers on ESPN who were questioning if an undefeated UNC would have a chance at the playoff. It would probably take until like week 9 for Troy to even get ranked
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Come on, just because writers say that doesn't mean
Sep 8, 2016, 12:55 PM
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anything. Had UNC gone undefeated, they would have beaten a ranked SEC team, a B1G team, FSU on the road, and either FSU, Clemson or Louisville in the ACCCG. There's no way they would've missed the playoffs at 13-0.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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well yes to UNC but if there's even a question for a team
Sep 8, 2016, 12:58 PM
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like that than can you imagine how many people would be against a Sun Belt or Mac team getting in?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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But they have a chance before the season begins right?
Sep 8, 2016, 1:15 PM
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It may be a long shot, and they need some quality wins on their resume. Imagine App State beating UT in Knoxville and Troy beating Clemson in Clemson. They both go undefeated into their head-to-head matchup. The winner of that game would at least be in the conversation for the playoffs.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: But they have a chance before the season begins right?
Sep 8, 2016, 1:18 PM
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Wait, what?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Thank you for proving my point***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:22 PM
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Thank you for proving my point***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:23 PM
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What's your point again? I has the confuse obviously. Weren't you talking about Houston making the playoffs? The tangents are throwing some kinks in the conversation.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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The point is that everyone has a chance to win the
Sep 8, 2016, 1:27 PM
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national championship before the season starts. If you're a non-P5 school, you need to schedule some big time games like Houston did, and you need to win them. And you need to run the table in your own conference. If you do those things, you have a chance, no matter how small of a chance it is. You are no longer eliminated based on your conference alone.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: The point is that everyone has a chance to win the
Sep 8, 2016, 1:36 PM
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GWP, I'm not arguing the ideal that "everyone has a chance"... Every citizen in the USA "has a chance" or being elected or becoming a billionaire. But beyond the ideal "chance", what is the "likelihood" of it becoming a reality?
Houston proved last year and this last week that they can hang with the big boys, I get that. They also scheduled Lamar and Texas State. They completed the hardest game on their schedule 3 months before the committee even meets to discuss who makes the playoffs. They "need" the AAC to shine and basically "need" multiple power-5 conference champions to lose not once, but twice for the doors to open up to them and finish the season undefeated beyond that.
So did they have a "chance" before the season started? Sure, if that answer helps them sleep at night. But really? Did they? You already know the answer bro. Am I crazy? 
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Please reread the OP.
Sep 8, 2016, 1:39 PM
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GWP is correct, and it appears you agree with him.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Yes.***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:41 PM
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: You used far too many words just to say you agree with me***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:43 PM
[ in reply to You used far too many words just to say you agree with me*** ] |
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Unless you were being completely facetious since your first post in this thread, I'm not sure I've agreed with a single word you've written lol.
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Re: You used far too many words just to say you agree with me***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:48 PM
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GWP: "But they have a chance before the season begins right?"
You: "So did they have a "chance" before the season started? Sure"
Sounds like y'all are agreeing.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: You used far too many words just to say you agree with me***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:53 PM
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Lol. The confuse came at GWP's first post
"It's not like that anymore" in response to the OP, and further, "Any time a non-P5 school gets a good coach and a couple playmakers, they can get into the running."
Neither of these statements is true obviously. Shame on me for missing the sarcasm.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Just as an FYI, Vegas currently has Houston with the
Sep 8, 2016, 1:56 PM
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Yeh and and last November, FPI had a 3-loss USC team listed as he 5th best team in the country ahead of an undefeated Clemson team. How did that work out?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So you're comparing an ESPN computer simulation to
Sep 8, 2016, 2:07 PM
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Vegas sportsbooks?
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: So you're comparing an ESPN computer simulation to
Sep 8, 2016, 2:15 PM
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What predictive metric do you think the Vegas sportsbook uses to set the odds sir? FPI. Of course human element comes into play in Vegas but there isn't some magic room in the bowels of the MGM Grand where magic elves set odds from behind a velvet curtain. It's all analytics. And FPI is the golden standard from which all odds are set.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So last November, were the Vegas odds better for
Sep 8, 2016, 2:19 PM
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USC to win a national championship than Clemson's?
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: And looking at the current FPI, Houston is 30th
Sep 8, 2016, 2:28 PM
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Arguing with you is exhausting. If you don't think the Vegas oddsmakers look at predictive metrics like FPI and other algorithms galore to set those lines, I give up. The FPI is most certainly referred to by the oddsmakers, among many others. My bringing up that USC flaw from last November wasn't meant to open up a new argument with you about Vegas lines and how they're arrived at, but rather to point out the inherent flaw in relying solely on predictors without the human element, hence the reason we've ended up with a committee over the BCS in the first place. Vegas doesn't set up the lines to win, they set them to lessen risk. But hey, if you wanna go bet the house on Houston to win it all? Be my guest. You won't be the only Vegas victim in January.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Now we're making progress! We've gone from
Sep 8, 2016, 2:38 PM
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"FPI is the golden standard from which all odds are set" to "Vegas oddsmakers look at predictive metrics like FPI and other algorithms galore to set those lines"
So as of today, FPI and other algorithms galore suggest Houston has the 8th best odds of winning the national championship.
And yes, arguing with me is exhausting, especially since you've agreed with me all along that before the season began, Houston was not eliminated from winning it all. Now, if only it were this easy to win an argument against my wife and opposing counsel...
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Now we're making progress! We've gone from
Sep 8, 2016, 2:48 PM
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If you noticed me putting "chance" in quotations, or the fact that I compared that "chance" to the likelihood of being elected president or becoming a billionaire, you'd have seen the sarcasm there.
And the words "from which" means exactly what I said in the second part of your quote. FPI is the golden standard. The rest are "secret" but we all know the oddsmakers are looking at the FPI side by side with their notes when making odds. And even after they make those odds, they see where the whales swing and then adjust before ever going public with those odds. Like I said, it's about minimizing risk to the house, not winning for them.
And I'll go on record for you clearly and say right now that Houston has a zero chance of making the final four. Is that better? And I'd also personally wager that those 20-1 odds that you're boasting about today will be back closer to the original 100-1 odds for Houston winning it all by the time it actually matters. Must be a slow day at the law offices of GWP Tiger today.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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This question will clear it all up
Sep 8, 2016, 3:00 PM
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If Houston goes undefeated, do you still contend they have zero chance of making the playoffs?
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: This question will clear it all up
Sep 8, 2016, 3:08 PM
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Proverbially? Yes. Just like every single analyst I've listened to and sports writer I've read since Saturday.
Life isn't a courtroom, it isn't always black and white. When I say zero chance, I mean I am absolutely certain that they will not be in the final four in December. Let's not argue the definition of zero now or the fact that 1.0000863% is still a "chance". Like I said many pages ago now, there is simply too much working against them for that to happen, from strength of schedule, to what conference they're in, to them needing multiple teams to lose TWICE, and beyond. So yes, proverbially speaking, Houston has NO chance of making the final four in MY opinion (to which I am entitled just as much as you are in believing they do). Good day to you sir. And go tigers!
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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sounds like you are having a hard time acknowledging that
Sep 8, 2016, 3:19 PM
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1.0 > 0
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: sounds like you are having a hard time acknowledging that
Sep 8, 2016, 3:23 PM
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Hence my inclusion of the word proverbially, to combat silly refutations like this. Aren't you busy finding out on the other thread that you started about the likelihood of power 5 teams winning the title??
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All-In [37023]
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I think they are correct
Sep 8, 2016, 3:33 PM
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Statistically every team has a chance to run the table prior to the season starting. Just because you don't think a team will make it does not mean they didn't have a chance before they kicked off the first game!
I for one think if Houston goes undefeated they just may get in. Heck they moved up to number 6 after beating oklahoma so they are in position this early in the season so that if they keep winning they have as good of a chance as anybody.
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All-TigerNet [10134]
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Re: I think they are correct
Sep 8, 2016, 3:35 PM
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I'm still saying even with a win, they have no chance at championship based on knowing there suckyness.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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"statistically" has no merit when arguing "proverbially"***
Sep 8, 2016, 3:35 PM
[ in reply to I think they are correct ] |
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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proverbially speaking...
Sep 8, 2016, 3:41 PM
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0 < 1
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Maybe we could bring the Tiger Board(s) resident math expert
Sep 8, 2016, 3:43 PM
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into this thread to weigh in. CM Shack
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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i give her a 0% chance of
Sep 8, 2016, 3:44 PM
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contributing anything worthwhile
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Statistically or proverbially?
Sep 8, 2016, 3:47 PM
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It's important
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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factually***
Sep 8, 2016, 3:48 PM
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Legend [16136]
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Remind me, which one of us claimed to have insider info
Sep 15, 2016, 9:48 PM
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About us jumping to the Big 12 dumba$$?
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Legend [16136]
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: "statistically" has no merit when arguing "proverbially"***
Sep 8, 2016, 4:43 PM
[ in reply to "statistically" has no merit when arguing "proverbially"*** ] |
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Being a lawyer and all, you of all people should know that if something is proverbial, it's referred to in a familiar saying, i.e. "There's a zero chance that Donald Trump wins the presidential election". Only a lawyer or mathmetician would argue whether or not the person saying that actually meant zero numerically. Cute nonetheless.
You listening Snowtown? If proverbially still confuses you, I can send you a link on one of the three threads you've created in attempts to be humorous since your last noteworthy post.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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No, what it does is provides you with a moving target
Sep 8, 2016, 4:54 PM
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because you didn't want to answer the question "if Houston goes undefeated, do you still contend they have zero chance of making the playoffs?" with a concrete yes or no. That way if Houston makes the playoffs, and I say "hey yankee look, you were wrong" you have the defense of "I said they proverbially have no chance, that didn't mean I thought they didn't statistically or numerically have no chance."
It's like how Bill or Hillary answer questions.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: No, what it does is provides you with a moving target
Sep 8, 2016, 5:02 PM
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Once again, you're doing that lawyer thing of relegating real life to the rules of a courtroom. I made it pretty clear that I believe, in MY opinion, that Houston isn't making the playoffs and provided ample reasons for that opinion. You and this protege that you picked up around page 7, made it a play on the word "zero". The bottom line? Houston, in my opinion, doesn't make the playoffs. No jury, no burden of proof, or any other legalese necessary.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: No, what it does is provides you with a moving target
Sep 8, 2016, 5:04 PM
[ in reply to No, what it does is provides you with a moving target ] |
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If I knew that all I'd have to so say was "Houston will make America great again" to get your vote, I'd have gladly said that one page one.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Well I'll give you a +1 on that one anyway***
Sep 8, 2016, 5:28 PM
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Well I'll give you a +1 on that one anyway***
Sep 8, 2016, 5:54 PM
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Why do they have a chance?***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:59 PM
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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years of having good season to build up a reputation
Sep 8, 2016, 2:02 PM
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a popular coach and a team that just beat Oklahoma. Building a team that has a chance at being in the conversation for a non power 5 team takes years
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Re: years of having good season to build up a reputation
Sep 8, 2016, 2:08 PM
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2011: 13-1
2012: 5-7
2013: 8-5
2014: 8-5
2015: 13-1
Good thing they had 2011 and 2015.
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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For the sake of time, I'll answer that for you...
Sep 8, 2016, 2:04 PM
[ in reply to Why do they have a chance?*** ] |
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Because they scheduled teams that are historical powers, and they win.
If any non power 5 school doesn't do the same that's their fault, not the playoff system's. The only difference is power 5 schools typically have a game or two against a traditional power built into their schedule because they are in the same conference with one (or more).
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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it's not up to the players then
Sep 8, 2016, 2:06 PM
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its up to the administrators who make schedules. The teams themselves to not have their fate in their own hands. It's in the hands of a million other powers and college football is the only sport where that is the case. It's not a matter of "just win" like it is everywhere else
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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I can't believe I'm responding to this...
Sep 8, 2016, 2:09 PM
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1) Schedule
2) Win
See #2.
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Why do all these sports bother with the
Sep 8, 2016, 2:20 PM
[ in reply to it's not up to the players then ] |
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RPI? Seems schedule plays a role in multiple sports.
"The Rating Percentage Index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule. It is one of the sports rating systems by which NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, hockey, soccer, lacrosse, and volleyball teams are ranked"
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Orange Blooded [4995]
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Re: Just as an FYI, Vegas currently has Houston with the
Sep 8, 2016, 1:59 PM
[ in reply to Just as an FYI, Vegas currently has Houston with the ] |
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Houston is one team out of dozens of non power 5 programs....
All the power 5 teams can go undefeated and get in but out of the non power 5 teams only one or two even have a shot.
That's absurd....they should either put all FBS conference champions in the playoffs or have a seperate national title for the non power 5.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Just as an FYI, Vegas currently has Houston with the
Sep 8, 2016, 2:36 PM
[ in reply to Just as an FYI, Vegas currently has Houston with the ] |
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These odds will change 1000 times before it ever matters. It's week two for Pete's sake! If you watched Georgia and Stanford play in week one, you'd see why the odds are the way they are TODAY. Let's see where Houston's chances to win it all are on December 1st, when it actually matters. There's a reason why you'd win a lot more money betting Clemson to win it all last May vs. December.
> 8th best odds to win it all. They were 100-1 to start the season, now they're at 20-1. That puts them ahead of teams like Georgia and Stanford.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Right, that's exactly my point.
Sep 8, 2016, 2:41 PM
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For a team like Houston, they control their own destiny. Just win. That's why they have 20-1 odds right now. If they lose a game, or more than 1 game, their odds will be much worse on December 1st.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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but many non power 5 teams do not control their own destiny
Sep 8, 2016, 2:47 PM
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In order did one to make the playoff they must hope that things get wacky in the power 5 leagues, like everyone having 2 losses, for the power 5 teams they beat to actually be good as the season goes on and some recognizable media presence doesn't hurt either.
And since it is impossible for every power 5 team to be good (someone has to lose) then it is impossible for every non power 5 team to have a chance for big wins, meaning certain teams cannot get into the playoff
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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name one time an undefeated non-power 5 team was left out of
Sep 8, 2016, 2:48 PM
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the playoff
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Well it was before the playoff (obviously), but 2009 is the
Sep 8, 2016, 3:52 PM
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best example. 12-0 TCU with some nice wins including at Clemson (ACC runners-up) which I'm sure everyone here remembers along with 13-0 Boise State who played a softer schedule, but did beat a 10-win Oregon team. TCU was #3 in both polls and #4 in the BCS at the end of the regular season. Boise was #6 across the board.
Unfortunately for both of them, there were two really strong, undefeated, BCS conference teams in Alabama and Texas so they never had any shot at getting into the 2-team "playoff."
The two got matched up in the Fiesta Bowl which really sucked for fans that wanted to see them square off against BCS conference teams. There was a lot of speculation that the selection committee did this intentionally to avoid the possibility of a major fall out if these two both beat power conference teams. It certainly felt like a cop out. Anyway, Boise won 17-10.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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Utah also went undefeated
Sep 8, 2016, 3:54 PM
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in 2005 and 2009 and didnt get a chance to sniff the title.
Tommy Bowden's Tulane team in 1998 went 12-0 and finished only like #12
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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You realize that no team made the playoff that year, right?***
Sep 8, 2016, 4:26 PM
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Well it's a bogus question because we only have 2 years
Sep 8, 2016, 5:16 PM
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of history to work with. There's plenty of precedent to suggest there will be a non-power 5 team in that top-4 mix again (despite power 5 conferences gobbling up a couple of the better group of 5 programs), and we will just have to wait and see how they are treated when the time comes.
You can't draw any conclusions from a 2 year old system though. Trying to do so would be really ignorant.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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So if I'm hearing you correctly, what you're saying is that
Sep 8, 2016, 5:27 PM
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no non-P5 team has ever gone undefeated and been kept out of the playoffs. Is that correct?
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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I don't know exactly what i jumped into here, but that was
Sep 8, 2016, 5:48 PM
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never my argument. I just think it's silly to bring up the fact that no undefeated group of five team has ever been left out of the playoff like that's some kind of evidence that it won't happen. We've had a playoff for all of 2 years and the situation hasn't arisen yet. What can we learn from that? Absolutely nothing at all.
My personal opinion on the subject is that those teams need to build up a legitimacy over more than one season to be seriously considered. They also need to have one or two decent power 5 teams on the schedule. Houston fits all of that to a T this year. If they win out they have an extremely good chance of getting in. It's a bit silly because with all of the turnover in college football there's only so much carryover from one year to the next, but Houston being really good last year and beating FSU handily in the bowl game is absolutely helping them this year.
But what if say, Utah State, goes unbeaten and wins the Mountain West? Are they definitely in? They play at Southern Cal and at BYU. Those would be pretty good wins, but probably nothing stellar. Is that enough to put them in the playoff? Obviously i can't answer that definitively, but it certainly feels like a "no".
Even Boise this year. They are supposed to be very good, but they haven't really been a dominant team consistently putting up wins over power 5 teams in 4-5 years. Their coach from that period is gone. The highlights of their schedule are Wazzou, Oregon St and BYU. Would going unbeaten get them in? Feels like a "no" again unless there's a lot of chaos in the power 5 conferences.
Houston is kind of a special case right now. It's not an unprecedented situation by any means because we saw it no long ago with Boise and TCU, but this time there's certainly an opportunity to get into the playoff.
That's all i feel has really changed though. There's now an opportunity for these schools to make the playoff whereas they had almost no chance at all in the BCS system. It's still going to require a lot of things aligning correctly for it to happen. Again this is just my opinion, but Houston seems like the only group of 5 with a legit chance.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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How can you argue that it's a bogus claim b/c we've only had
Sep 8, 2016, 6:23 PM
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a playoff for 2 years...
then turn around and say... "it's not an unprecedented situation by any means"??
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Is it really that hard to understand? I was making two
Sep 8, 2016, 9:46 PM
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separate points. There's a precedent for group of 5 teams to be around the top 4 at the end of a season. TCU and Boise both did it on at least one occasion within the last ~7 years.
There's absolutely no precedent for how an undefeated group of 5 team is going to be treated by the playoff committee though. It hasn't happened yet. I suspect Houston would get in due to them establishing themselves last year and having two really nice wins this year (if they win out) over OU and Louisville. I also suspect other group of 5 teams would be treated much less favorably.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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bogus question? I'll ask you a couple more...
Sep 8, 2016, 5:29 PM
[ in reply to Well it's a bogus question because we only have 2 years ] |
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1. Have we had a college football playoff?
2. If yes, has there ever been an undefeated, group of 5 team that did not make it...
no tricks... just two questions
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: But they have a chance before the season begins right?
Sep 8, 2016, 1:21 PM
[ in reply to But they have a chance before the season begins right? ] |
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I'm making assumptions or you are? The likelihood of this fantasy scenario below playing out isn't even worth the discussion, no?
> It may be a long shot, and they need some quality wins on their resume. Imagine App State beating UT in Knoxville and Troy beating Clemson in Clemson. They both go undefeated into their head-to-head d matchup. The winner of that game would at least be in the conversation for the playoffs.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Before the season started, was there a 0% chance of that
Sep 8, 2016, 1:23 PM
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happening? If not, then I am right.
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Because I wanted to see just the T_I_P admit I'm right***
Sep 8, 2016, 12:56 PM
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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He may be the only one who doesn't see that.***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:10 PM
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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so you think Wyoming can get into the playoff eh***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:11 PM
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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Before the season started they had a chance
Sep 8, 2016, 1:13 PM
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Run the tables blowing out their opponents including Nebraska and they're at least in the conversation.
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: It's not like that anymore
Sep 8, 2016, 12:56 PM
[ in reply to It's not like that anymore ] |
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I disagree. I think Houston looked great against an overhyped, over-ranked Oklahoma, yes. But once those 12 people get into that conference room in November, I don't believe they would unanimously choose an undefeated Houston over a one-loss Florida State for instance. Their schedule just isn't strong enough. The ACC right now is proving that we are as good as, if not better than the SEC... Yet and still, the reason why the debate continues to exist? FPI. "Eye test" aside, algorithms dictate the strength of the opposition and to this day is still the most heavily weighted metric the committee uses to make their decisions when the time comes.
UH plays Louisville late in the season who will more than likely not even be in the top 25 after a loss to us. UH can also lose to Cinci in 2 weeks. The way OU looked the other night, they'll probably lose to Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Baylor & Texas. Hate to sound like a hater, I just don't see how Houston makes the final four. There would have to be no undeated teams, some miracle powerhouse would have to appear in the PAC-12 (like Oregon), etc., just too many factors go against them.
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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You're making a lot of assumptions and missing the point.
Sep 8, 2016, 1:00 PM
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Was Houston eliminated from playing for a national championship before the year even began?
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: You're making a lot of assumptions and missing the point.
Sep 8, 2016, 1:04 PM
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Pretty much, and it was dictated by their schedule, their shifty conference, and the (low) likelihood of both OU and Louisville running their respective tables. Do I agree with it? Not necessarily. But until they expand the playoff system or Houston leaves the AAC, they will continue to be "the best non-power-5 team in the country". Just my opinion (and about 99% of every sports analyst out there this afternoon).
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Heisman Winner [105574]
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You're still making assumptions and further proving my point***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:17 PM
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Heisman Winner [108390]
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All-TigerNet [10134]
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Re: It's not like that anymore
Sep 8, 2016, 3:09 PM
[ in reply to It's not like that anymore ] |
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That is pretty harsh to talk about the coots, I mean being counted out of the playoffs before you even snap a chinstrap lol!!! Poor coots!!
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110%er [5287]
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Re: Is college football the only sport where certain teams
Sep 8, 2016, 12:40 PM
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I think it depends on the schedule played for most. Surprisingly, there was once a time where SMU that Morris is at was a top 5 team (1981/82 to be exact)....but in 1981, they played teams that at the time they played were ranked: 20, 14, 10, 8, 13, 10, 8, 6. So in regards to what you mention, Wake Forest taking down a ranked Clemson, FSU, and Louisville would likely put them in discussions.
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All-Pro [658]
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That's correct
Sep 8, 2016, 12:51 PM
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Read the rules, it sounds like a mafia agreement that certain conference "families" control certain territories and those that are left over can fend for themselves just not at the big boy's table.
Either the playoffs need to be expanded to include at least one team from every conference (too many games) or the group-of-5 need to be dismissed from the league and perhaps the best 12 teams form some 6th power conference and then you can have a playoff where everyone has a chance to win.
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Freshman [6]
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only way for it to happen is to have a 16 team playoff***
Sep 8, 2016, 12:52 PM
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All-Pro [658]
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Re: only way for it to happen is to have a 16 team playoff***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:13 PM
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Or remove teams that they deem outside the committee consideration and reduce the conference count to something manageable.
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CU Medallion [60229]
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all teams control scheduling of at least 4 of their games
Sep 8, 2016, 1:36 PM
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even if they play in a terrible conference. If they choose to play bad teams, they choose to have no chance.
pick any random small school - say Ball State of the MAC.
If they scheduled 4 bigtime schools for their OOC opponents - and beat them, along with going through their conference.....they would make the playoff.
If Ball State scheduled, say, Ohio State, LSU, FSU and Oklahoma in a year and beat them - they would be given the benefit of the doubt and make it. That goes for any team on that level - Hawaii, App State, Idaho, Troy, etc.
But if you schedule poorly, you eliminate yourself. Teams like NCState, Wake, etc. do this by CHOICE.
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110%er [6138]
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PAC-12 does not***
Sep 8, 2016, 1:38 PM
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CU Medallion [60229]
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they are a Power 5 conference, so not as big of an issue
Sep 8, 2016, 1:51 PM
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plus they can always choose to play a 13th game at Hawaii if they want.
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Orange Blooded [4995]
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Re: Is college football the only sport where certain teams
Sep 8, 2016, 1:39 PM
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Yes college football is the only sport where this is the case and it's absurd.
More than 50% of the teams have no shot at winning a national title.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Any undefeated Power 5 team is going to make the playoff
Sep 8, 2016, 2:28 PM
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barring some kind of major anomaly. Iowa would've been in last year had they beaten Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.
Most non-power 5 have no shot though. Those teams have to be good for multiple years to prove they aren't a fluke. Houston only has a legit shot this year because of what they did last year. I think Boise would've been in the playoff hunt a couple years had it been 4 teams at the time and not two. The two team BCS system basically gave the smaller conference teams absolutely no shot at all. Now they have a shot, they just have to be good for multiple seasons in a row, and it's still just a really small chance.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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that's not true
Sep 8, 2016, 3:18 PM
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what if every power 5 conference has an undefeated champion?
or
4 undefeated champions and an undefeated ND?
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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That would be the major anomoly i mentioned. I don't believe
Sep 8, 2016, 3:31 PM
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it has happened in my lifetime, and it definitely hasn't happened in the BCS era. There were 3 in 2004 with USC, OU, and Auburn all going unbeaten, but i can't even think of another year where there were even three.
It's even less likely now that there are 5 conferences and everyone either plays each other in the regular season (Big XII) or has a conference title game.
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110%er [7718]
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Re: Is college football the only sport where certain teams
Sep 8, 2016, 3:49 PM
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Well this thread turned into a #### show.
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Starter [362]
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You're making the case that the non power 5 should move down a division and have their own playoff
Sep 8, 2016, 7:05 PM
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And I agree that is really the best solution.
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Hall of Famer [24995]
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yeah that might make more sense
Sep 8, 2016, 10:30 PM
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Some of the top non power 5 schools like Houston, Boise State, BYU, UCF, USF should remain with "the big boys" but schools like New Mexico State, UL Monroe, San Jose State etc. They should combine with the top FCS schools like NDSU, Montana, E Washington, Richmond etc to make a new division
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110%er [6474]
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Re: Is college football the only sport where certain teams
Sep 8, 2016, 10:27 PM
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Sure Wake Would be in. With a win over Clemson and FSU, they would definitely make the 4.
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