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YOUR BALANCE
Why we should be going for it on 4th down!
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Why we should be going for it on 4th down!


Dec 21, 2015, 10:23 PM

1. Deshaun Watson is the best QB in the nation surrounded by a plethora of talent.
2. If you even need a second reason here is the stats to back it up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html

This is not meant to be an indictment on the coaching staff. I love Dabo and wouldn't trade him for Saban if Bama paid us but that doesn't mean I don't think we can't be even better. The fact that Dabo does it so much different than every other coach is what's made him successful. We made need to take a few risks to beat 2 of the top 4 teams in the nation.

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Re: Why we should be going for it on 4th down!


Dec 22, 2015, 12:03 AM

....because our punter sucks

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Let's see.


Dec 22, 2015, 5:04 AM

13-0 and you have issues?

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How does this article account for the unforeseen consequence


Dec 22, 2015, 12:11 AM

in football that you get "stuffed" behind the line on occasion. The article mentioned that you should always go for a fourth and 1 anywhere on the field starting at your own 9 yard line. If we lined up for a fourth and one that deep in our territory, it better be because we are coming from behind or we are simply trying to bait the other team off sides. Look at our fourth down conversion percentage... It can't be better than about 66%. If we are only getting first downs at that rate, it means we could be giving the ball to the other team in plus territory 1 out of 3 times. I don't like those odds. I trust our defense.

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if you look at 4th down statistics


Dec 22, 2015, 4:00 AM

you have to factor in the fact that the reason the team went for it on 4th down is because they thought they could make it in the first place. If everybody went for it on 4th down the statistics would go down.

Teams only made 1st downs against us 1 out of 4 times on 3rd down. Yeah, let them go for it on 4th down every time!

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Re: if you look at 4th down statistics


Dec 22, 2015, 11:06 AM

I should have specified more. I'm not advocating that we go for it quite as often as the chart suggests, just a little more often than we do. IMO we will have to take a few risks to make it to 15-0.

Example: Against Louisville, 1st quarter, on UL 37 yard line 4th and 5. Deshaun Watson punts the ball for 23 yards to the UL 14 yard line. Their offense's chance to score didn't decrease much by making them go an extra 23 yards while our chances of scoring on that drive went from about 60+% to 0% by willingly turning the ball over. If we convert we are already in field goal range and could still get a touchdown. We also keep their D on the field longer which will work out better for us later in the game. If we score we also get to kick off which would give them the ball around the 20. Might also help crush their spirits and those of the fans if we convert. If we don't UL still has to go 63 yards against our defense who BTW is pretty #### good.

It's not that we are 13-0 and I have problems, its that I have suggestions. I'm not mad at any of our coaches. All coaches play uber conservative. I just don't think it's always the right play.

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Is that you Andy?***


Dec 22, 2015, 5:03 AM



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Re: Why we should be going for it on 4th down!


Dec 22, 2015, 6:21 PM

Another article I liked on the subject.
http://deadspin.com/5948322/the-two-common-fallacies-that-explain-why-nfl-coaches-punt-on-fourth-down

Crazy thing is these stats don't even account for when you have a far superior team (like Clemson does in most cases) or a stud QB. These are just averages. They also don't take into account how much it helps you win the game if you convert 4th downs in the early quarters by maintaining possession, giving the other team less opportunity to score, wearing down the defense, or even wearing down the crowd when you're on the road.

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