Replies: 17
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Legend [15757]
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Covid-19 Has Become Less Deadly, but That Could Change as
Nov 24, 2020, 10:46 AM
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Cases rise:
“ The coronavirus is now killing around 0.6% of people it infects, an improvement from April, when the death rate was about 0.9%, says the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease modeler at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, says the current death rate could be even lower than that, at roughly 0.15%. The death rate of seasonal influenza is 0.1%, based on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-has-become-less-deadly-but-that-could-change-as-cases-rise-11606213802?mod=mhp
Amazing to think that this disease might end up with a 0.15% fatality rate. Very excited by all the recent announcements about potential vaccines.
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Heisman Winner [120226]
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CDC told us that 2 months ago
Nov 24, 2020, 11:07 AM
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More contagious, less lethal....
But the MSM in all its wisdom continues the doom and gloom stories.....
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110%er [9694]
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They love to show us the make-shift morgues in El Paso
Nov 24, 2020, 12:06 PM
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every night and act like that's happening everywhere...or on it's way everywhere.
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Oculus Spirit [97942]
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It's real.
Nov 24, 2020, 3:42 PM
[ in reply to CDC told us that 2 months ago ] |
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4300 people have died from it in SC. Worst flu season in the past decade in SC we lost 289 people. Math that out however you like. But beyond that I know it's real from my job.
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Oculus Spirit [97942]
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258665/12481000 = %2.0
Nov 24, 2020, 3:32 PM
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To get .15% means 166 million Americans would have already had covid. Today. But beside the unknown asymptomatic people.....because oddly it's never been seriously studied.....in the US.......
2018-2019 flu season - 34,000 Americans died from the flu. An average year, slightly above. Anywhere from 12,000 to 60,000 Americans die from the flu each year.
If you add up all the flu deaths since 2013 in the US (7 years), you get roughly the past 7.5 months of covid deaths. It is easily the third leading cause of death in the United States this year. Flu has not been the third leading cause of death in the US in my lifetime. The difference is even much more stark in the state of SC. The 2017-18 flu season was one of our worst in SC in years. 289 people die from influenza that year, well above average for the state. We've had roughly 4,300 covid deaths in SC this year. We're well north of 20 average flu seasons/years worth of deaths from covid. In the 2017-18 flu season there were 4,400 hospitalizations for the flu. We're up to 11,600 for covid so far.
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Legend [15757]
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Oddly enough, that 0.15% number has a hotlink to another
Nov 24, 2020, 4:26 PM
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WSJ article where one would presume you would find the details on that claim, but I could not.
I assumed that they were taking a smaller snapshot of time to give a “current” rate (ie, deaths as a percentage of infections in the past three months, as we have better treated the illness), but I don’t know for sure. If that were the case, I would find that very relevant as we should make lifestyle and policy decisions based on the risk TODAY.
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Oculus Spirit [97942]
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It's all based on a pure guestimation of asymptomatic cases
Nov 24, 2020, 5:05 PM
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Even their initial rate was based on unknown assumptions. 40 cases for every positive test? China says closer to 3-4. France says 5-8. DHEC says 8-9. Who knows. BUT, what you CAN SEE EASILY are the deaths and hospitalizations. You can see plenty enough of those to know this isn't anything like the flu, at all. Not even in the ballpark. Maybe for people under 20yo. Once you get over 20yo, it's a little worse than the flu until 30. It increases from there rapidly with age. It's 10+ times as deadly as the flu for older people.
The more you can saturate with testing, the lower the rate.
Here's some data from Italy from September:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
And here's a chart of other countries with ages listed:
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CU Medallion [60256]
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So you get tired of being so wrong and fear
Nov 24, 2020, 5:06 PM
[ in reply to 258665/12481000 = %2.0 ] |
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mongering?
You should do a compilation of your posts and send your resume to CNN
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Oculus Spirit [97942]
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I'm not fear mongering.
Nov 24, 2020, 5:26 PM
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He posted numbers based on guestimations, I posted hard data. The two do not add up.
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All-In [40970]
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the death rate was a lot higher early on, it has dropped***
Nov 24, 2020, 6:58 PM
[ in reply to 258665/12481000 = %2.0 ] |
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Oculus Spirit [97942]
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Yep. It has.***
Nov 24, 2020, 7:23 PM
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Lot o points [163012]
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CU Guru [1939]
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Re: 258665/12481000 = %2.0
Nov 24, 2020, 7:31 PM
[ in reply to 258665/12481000 = %2.0 ] |
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I am suspicious of some of the reported Covid deaths. Multiple reports of hospitals listing Covid as the cause of death even though there were very serious other conditions that might have caused death. I DO NOT claim this to be true but have heard some suspicious things.
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Oculus Spirit [81388]
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What caused the other reasons to cause death?
Nov 24, 2020, 8:47 PM
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Sure..a dude may have had lung cancer and heart disease that he would naturally have died from <2 years.
What if he had covid that exacerbate those conditions to cause death?
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110%er [5714]
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My head is going to explode if I hear
Nov 24, 2020, 4:29 PM
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follow the science one more time!
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All-In [34145]
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Can someone get this poor man a no-science safe space?***
Nov 24, 2020, 4:33 PM
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Legend [15757]
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Legend [15757]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 17378
Joined: 2/1/99
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Replies: 17
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