|
Replies: 12
| visibility 1,987
|
Orange Blooded [3245]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7659
Joined: 9/21/13
|
Can Gurshall carry UGA in Athens?
Jul 7, 2014, 7:46 PM
|
|
It's hard to ignore the struggles that the CU defense had in containing Todd Gurley in the 2013 game. With Gurshall being one of the few known factors for either offense going into the 2014, it is natural for the dawgs to feel confident and us Tiger fans to feel worried about the impact they might have on the game. With both RBs active, the dawgs have only seen losses to teams ranked inside the top 10. So I wanted to crunch some numbers and see if I could feel any better after the fact. So here are a few things you should know before you talk to another UGA fan.
1) 75 yards. Todd Gurley's longest run of his career (beating previous best by 20 yards) came on UGA's first rushing attempt of the 2013 season against a defense that still had an identity to find. This obviously skews statistics from this game though I won't discount it. Hopefully Blanks to his more natural position and a faster Steward at WLB could prevent that lightning from striking twice.
2) 28 carries 197 yards 7 yards per carry. These were Gurshall's numbers from the 2013 game. While we let Gurley get loose too many times we shut down legit home run threat Marshall when it mattered. For their career when they are both active, they average 25 carries and 156 yards per game. This means that at 28 carries Gurshall only outperformed their average by 22 yards against Clemson. Seems incredible when you think 75 of those yards came on one play.
2b) As a baseline comparison McDowell had 14.5 carries per game and 78.8 ypg (5.4 ypc to Gurshall's 6.2) Adjusted to 25 carries a game he would have averaged 135.7 ypg (just 21 yards less than Gurshall's average per game) Before you argue diminishing returns against McDowell know he averaged 5.5 ypc in games he rushed 20 or more times (one being against UGA) bettering his career ypc average. On the other hand, Gurley averages 4.9 ypc in games with over 20 attempts. So in a heads up comparison a undrafted RB delivered around around 88% of the efficiency of the undeniably talented 5 star duo. Assuming we are able to at least match the effort of last years running game (I'm a homer that thinks it will be better) will that 12% advantage Gurshall brings be enough to flip the tables.
3) No more Murray and no more Watkins. In a never ending arms race that is college football, who replaces their weapons better? These questions are impossible to answer. However I think it is undeniable that Clemson is in better hands with Chad Morris to compensate for the losses on his offense. Stoudt is a bit of an unknown but Georgia did not impress with Mason at the helm. They were arguably one of the best three offenses in CFB the past two years. With Gurshall coming off injury filled season, I'll take Clemson and the points.
No doubt Gurshall can carry the rock with authority but they cannot carry Georgia.
|
|
|
|
 |
Heisman Winner [111623]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 73771
Joined: 9/10/03
|
Re: Can Gurshall carry UGA in Athens?
Jul 7, 2014, 7:58 PM
|
|
Mark Richt can't Chad Morris. The toss sweep is still a great play said nobody ever..
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1701]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 1992
Joined: 4/22/13
|
One things for sure. They'll run Gurley until he's in a
Jul 7, 2014, 8:29 PM
|
|
wheelchair. He's the best back in college football hands down but he is bound to get hurt when their entire offense depends on him carrying the ball every other play and going off every game. Ive heard keith Marshall is still banged up and a lot of uga fans are saying he won't be %100 this year, not too long ago they weren't even convinced he would play the early part of the season but I haven't looked into it lately. But I have all the faith in the world in our defensive line and linebackers to atleast limit their hellacious running attack.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [11934]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 16363
Joined: 11/30/98
|
We will be better equipped to stop the run this year ...
Jul 7, 2014, 9:27 PM
|
|
Practically every facet of out defense should be as good or better than last year.
I don't think Georgia can be one dimensional and have offensive success against us.
We can limit the Georgia running game.
My question is can we do enough offensively ourselves either on the ground or through the air to beat Georgia in Athens.
It's just so hard to predict.
The record books show that we have only won twice in Athens in modern history and both times were by the thinnest of margins.
Homer Jordan and William Perry et al couldn't beat Georgia in Athens in the 1982 opener.
I think the game this year may very well come down to special teams.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amateur [48]
TigerPulse: 46%
Posts: 219
Joined: 10/6/07
|
Re: Can Gurshall carry UGA in Athens?
Jul 7, 2014, 9:44 PM
|
|
Marshall is out for the season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-American [567]
TigerPulse: 86%
Posts: 941
Joined: 3/26/13
|
You think?
Jul 7, 2014, 10:13 PM
|
|
NOT!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Starter [358]
TigerPulse: 59%
Posts: 773
Joined: 4/29/13
|
ummmmmmmm ... no he isn't
Jul 7, 2014, 10:14 PM
[ in reply to Re: Can Gurshall carry UGA in Athens? ] |
|
He tore his acl last season vs UT, but it was a bad one. His recovery is going well, but I doubt well enough to make much noise against Clemson. I would wager that Gurley gets 90+% of the carries in the opener, and that's exactly how it should be with an elite talent like that.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3245]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7659
Joined: 9/21/13
|
Re: ummmmmmmm ... no he isn't
Jul 7, 2014, 11:50 PM
|
|
Like I said Gurley is right at 5 ypc when he gets 20+ touches. I think Georgia needs Gurley and Marshall to play well for 30+ combined. If it becomes a one man band I think it could get ugly for them.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1346]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3868
Joined: 11/19/11
|
Venables and squad need to study the crap
Jul 7, 2014, 10:16 PM
|
|
out of the Nebraska bowl game. They were able to hold Gurley down on almost every carry.
I've also read Marshall isn't expected to be good for tons of carries by Aug 28. 10 might be his limit.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1701]
TigerPulse: 96%
Posts: 1992
Joined: 4/22/13
|
That's huge for us, the more we can strain Gurley the easier
Jul 7, 2014, 11:40 PM
|
|
we keep the puppies off the board. I agree we should study Nebraska but keep in mind the Gurley we saw last year and the Gurley we will see this year is a completely different animal than the one from the latter part of the season, he had been fighting injury the entire second half of the season. But I really think we keep him right around 100 which in my opinion looks extremely good for our chances to win the game comfortably. Let's just hope we don't key on Gurley and forget the rest of our offense ive seen us do that before but then again I truly believe this defense is going to be up there with the best clemson defenses all time, its a bold statement but if Mackenzie Alexander, travis blanks and the rest of the DBs come to play I don't see anyone we can't stop.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [10871]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 12937
Joined: 4/18/12
|
Mason better be one heck of a passer...no passing game
Jul 7, 2014, 11:57 PM
|
|
means we sell out on the run and bring their O to a screeching halt...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Orange Blooded [3245]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7659
Joined: 9/21/13
|
Re: Mason better be one heck of a passer...no passing game
Jul 8, 2014, 12:27 AM
|
|
I don't he will be chopped liver but he has really big shoes to fill. I really couldn't believe they didn't try to run a spike on that last play in the SEC championship. I guess you don't give Nick time to plan or sub but Murray should have thrown that one through the end zone at least. Murray's arm gave that duo a lot of room to work.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rock Defender [53]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 35
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: Can Gurshall carry UGA in Athens?
Jul 8, 2014, 1:03 AM
|
|
I doubt that Marshall will even play in our game, much less actually be any relief. They have some other RB's, but none as good as Marshall was. No - Gurley is going to be a worn-out horse when this game is over. I almost guarantee that CBV plays the RUN first and the PASS second, so Gurley is a marked man already. Anybody can figure this one out. If HM decides to PASS and gets a couple of INT's, then this one is in the books. UGA is in trouble - and you can smell the fear.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 12
| visibility 1,987
|
|
|
50
