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Replies: 31
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Enthusiast [112]
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Looking at Basketball (kinda long)
Feb 24, 2014, 11:15 AM
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http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=14843139
Very upset that we're probably going to finish at 10-8 and not get consideration for the tourney.
I hate these computer formulas so much sometimes. Talking heads going off about our weak OOC schedule but we were in the top 50 in BPI and sagarin right before ACC play started. To think that our computer numbers have gone down AFTER OOC play is just unbelievable. I agree that our OOC schedule was VERY weak, but if you're going to tell us we're top 50 AFTER that crappy schedule, how you gonna come back and say we're worse after following form in ACC play? UGH
The new ACC teams were supposed to strengthen Basketball, not weaken it, and to think that a team that finishes in the top half of the league isn't going to get to go to the tourney is just unbelievable.
My guess is we lose to PITT and WF going forward, but even then, we should still get an invite. If we then win a tourney game and don't get an invite, after getting 21 wins, above 500 in ACC play, and top half or maybe even third of the league, with an EXPANDED 68 team field... I'm going to be even more beside myself than I already am.
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Enthusiast [112]
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Re: Looking at Basketball (kinda long)
Feb 24, 2014, 11:18 AM
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PS- RPI sucks! It's algorithm is old and outdated. Improve the process NCAA!!!!
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Heisman Winner [140525]
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Zerosideffects? Pretty sure this post made me drowsy.
Feb 24, 2014, 11:19 AM
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You know I'm kidding.
Message was edited by: Francis Marion®
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All-In [26968]
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ACC just isn't all that strong this year.
Feb 24, 2014, 11:20 AM
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It's just one formula, so take it for what it's worth, but I have Clemson with the 60th rate in-conference schedule in the country. Not only is the ACC probably the 5th-strongest conference, top-to-bottom, but Clemson has played one of the weaker conference slates in the ACC.
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Head Coach [757]
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Isn't that strong? ACC has four legitimate top 10 teams***
Feb 24, 2014, 11:22 AM
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All-In [26968]
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4 really good teams, but then what?
Feb 24, 2014, 11:24 AM
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A couple of decent teams, a lot of mediocre teams, and a couple of terrible teams.
The lack of depth in the conference makes a 10-8 or 11-7 record not as impressive as an 8-10 or 9-9 in the Big Ten, for example.
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Head Coach [757]
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So you are saying that four top ten teams....
Feb 24, 2014, 11:33 AM
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doesn't affect the strength of the league over all? No other conference has that many top teams.
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All-In [26968]
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Well, obviously it does. Without those four teams...
Feb 24, 2014, 11:35 AM
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The ACC would be like the 15th best conference, instead of the 5th.
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Head Coach [757]
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That's where this RPI thing is way off.....
Feb 24, 2014, 11:37 AM
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ACC is much better than 5th place league, especially now at the end of the season. RPI factors too heavily on projected strength at the beginning of the season.
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All-In [26968]
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I don't know anything about RPIs.
Feb 24, 2014, 11:40 AM
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I have no idea how RPI rates the conferences this year. I think it's really obvious just looking at the teams that the ACC is behind the Big Ten, Big 12, and PAC-12. There may be an argument about the Big East, but for me, top-to-bottom, the Big East is better. Too much junk at the bottom of the ACC.
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Head Coach [757]
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In a 15 team league there is going to be some junk ....
Feb 24, 2014, 11:42 AM
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at the bottom.
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All-In [26968]
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Absolutely. If the ACC were only 12 teams, and
Feb 24, 2014, 11:45 AM
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BC, VT, and GT weren't in it, then the story would be dramatically different. 11-7 would be a likely lock for the tourney.
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Head Coach [757]
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If those teams weren't in then we wouldnt be playing 18...
Feb 24, 2014, 12:26 PM
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conference games.....
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All-In [26968]
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The PAC-12, Big Ten, and Big 12 are all playing 18 games.
Feb 24, 2014, 1:57 PM
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Not that it really matters...the point stands that having more teams in the conference has diluted it to the point that an above .500 record doesn't mean what it used to.
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CU Medallion [50635]
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All-In [49613]
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How is it weaker?
Feb 24, 2014, 12:19 PM
[ in reply to ACC just isn't all that strong this year. ] |
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1 game against BC (Syracuse got them twice)
1 game against VTech (Virginia & Maryland get them twice)
2 games against Pitt (Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, UNC and FSU got them once)
2 games against FSU (UNC, Duke, Pitt Syracuse and Virginia got them once
I'd say our conference sked was probably right in the middle.
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All-In [26968]
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I have it 11th out of 15 teams.
Feb 24, 2014, 1:13 PM
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1. Wake Forest
2. Notre Dame
3. Pittsburgh
4. Florida St.
5. NC State
6. Duke
7. Boston College
8. UNC
9. Georgia Tech
10. Miami
11. Clemson
12. Maryland
13. Virginia Tech
14. Syracuse
15. Virginia
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All-In [26968]
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That is only for games thus far, by the way.
Feb 24, 2014, 1:17 PM
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So they don't have "credit" yet for two games against Pitt. They've played GT twice, who I have as the third worst team in the ACC.
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All-In [30593]
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If we finish 12-6 in the ACC... we are a lock...
Feb 24, 2014, 11:27 AM
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unless we just vomit on ourselves and lose to VT or something in the ACCT.... which would likely put us back on the bubble.
No way a 12-6, 5th place team in the ACC, with a strong finish, isn't in the tourney
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All-In [26968]
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Decent chance...not a lock.***
Feb 24, 2014, 11:28 AM
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All-In [30593]
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we would also be inte 40's with our RPI....
Feb 24, 2014, 11:29 AM
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if that's not a lock then the whole system needs to be thrown out
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All-In [26968]
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If you get into the 40s, with a 12-6 record,
Feb 24, 2014, 11:31 AM
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That's pretty good. I'm not sure what their current RPI is, but I wasn't thinking they would get into the 40s.
I really think they have to win out to have any chance at all.
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All-In [30593]
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I agree somewhat...
Feb 24, 2014, 11:36 AM
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IMO, winning out puts us squarely in, and off the bubble completely.
If we finish 11-7 in ACC play, I think we are on the bubble, and we will need to win at least one ACCT game and hope for some other bubble teams to falter.
12-6: in no matter what happens in ACCT
11-7: in with 2+ ACCT wins
11-7: team watching with only one ACCT win
11-7: out with ACCT loss
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Head Coach [757]
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All-In [26968]
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Cool site.***
Feb 24, 2014, 11:48 AM
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CU Medallion [64590]
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Head Coach [757]
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If we finish 12-6 in conference, 21-9 over all...
Feb 24, 2014, 11:35 AM
[ in reply to If we finish 12-6 in the ACC... we are a lock... ] |
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we will be either 5th place or 6th place seed in ACCT.....
Then we would play second round against 11-14 winner or 12-13 winner. I'd say we have a pretty good chance of at least winning that game and playing in the quarterfinals against 3rd or 4th seed.
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All-In [49613]
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12-6 gets us 5th place ...
Feb 24, 2014, 12:25 PM
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... with a tie vs. Pitt for 5th place and a 1-1 split in the regular season, we look to the next tiebreaker: If the two tied teams split their regular season games, the tie is broken by comparing each team’s records against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, and then continuing down until one team gains an advantage.
Each 0-1 vs. Syracuse
Each 0-1 vs. Virginia
Each 0-1 vs. UNC
Clemson 1-0 vs. Duke, Pitt 0-1. Welcome to 5th lace.
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Head Coach [757]
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So winning out gives us 5th place seed....
Feb 24, 2014, 12:29 PM
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Then how could they leave out the ACC 5th place seed in NCAAT? Doesn't make since.....
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All-In [49613]
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Ask VTech in 2011
Feb 24, 2014, 12:37 PM
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21-11, tied for fifth in conference, reach the ACC semis, had a better record against Top 50 teams than several who got in.
All for naught.
Of course, they were 9-7, not 12-6 in league. Lost their final regular season game to Clemson, who ended up in the Dance.
So ... I think a strong finish, including a critical win over Pitt, would get us over the hump. But VTech says it ain't always so.
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Head Coach [757]
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Hopefully that was an anomaly.....
Feb 24, 2014, 12:51 PM
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regardless they did get screwed.....
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All-In [49613]
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IIRC, the rationalization was...
Feb 24, 2014, 12:54 PM
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They had played back to the bubble, then lost 3 of 4 to close the season.
A nice ACC run couldn't save them: especially since two borderline teams that got in (including Clemson) beat them head-to-head.
That's why beating Maryland and Pitt is so critical in the weeks to come.
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