How we stand vs. other top 20 foes ...

May 22, 2016, 8:57 AM

While waiting for the ACC tourney times to be announced, I was wondering just what the Tigers accomplished during the regular season. I mean, we all know it was a better year than 2015, but how much better was it, compared to other folks who could be considered challengers to host a region?

A caveat before beginning: 1. I'm owning up to some built-in bias, but the numbers are neutral, coming from warren nolan's site. And I still think we need a respectable showing in the tourney to be chosen as a host site. But if indeed 40 wins is the bar to host, then a LOT of would-be host teams are going to be traveling in early June.

The 40-win mark: As of now, 10 legitimate hosting sites have 40 or more wins. Five of them (Louisville, Miami, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Florida) can be considered national seeds). That leaves Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Miss St. and Coastal as teams with the golden number. You have to go down to No. 32 Bryant (keep an eye on them, BTW) for the next 40-win team. No. 9 LSU has 39 wins, Clemson has 38. No. 17 TCU is the only other team with as many wins in the Top 30, much less Top 20.

Vs. Top 50 teams: There are two components here ... how many top 50 teams did you beat, and how many did you play? Obviously the more you played, the tougher your schedule. Tops was Louisville with 19 wins in 29 attempts, then the Wuffies with 18 of 33. Following, in order of wins is Miami (17 of 26), Florida (16 of 24) Texas A&M (15 of 24), Clemson (15 of 29) and Virginia (14 of 28). No other region host contenders have more than 13 top 50 wins.

Now, break it down into wins vs. top 20 RPI teams ... essentially vs. other region host contenders.

Florida 13-7 ... strong both on the road and at home
Louisville 11-7
Texas A&M 11-7
Miami 9-6
S. Carolina 8-7
Miss State 8-7
LSU 7-8
Clemson 7-9 (and 2 ninth-inning losses at Miami away from being 9-7 ... sigh!)
FSU 7-9
Vandy 6-10
Ole Miss 6-11
NC State 3-7
Virginia 4-5
Texas Tech 3-2
TCU 2-2
Ula-la 0-2
Coastal 1-3
Technically, with an RPI of 20, UC Santa Barbara should be in here ... but they didn't play any top 20 teams. Plus they lost to No. 254 Bakersfield last week. Which brings us to ...

Bad losses: Sure, we all have an off day. And Clemson was fortunate in scheduling. Nearly all our "bad days" came against top foes, so we didn't get dinged on the RPI. But is there anyone who doesn't think our 16-1 loss to GTech would have beaten ANYONE? Naw ....

In this case, I'm calling a "bad loss" falling to a sub 100 RPI team: The region contenders, by fewest bad losses:
Louisville 0
Florida 0
South Carolina 0
NC State 0
Clemson 1 (dang that opening-day loss to Maine!)
Ole Miss 1
Vandy 1
Miss State 1
Virginia 1
Texas A&M 2
FSU 2
Coastal 3
LSU 4
TCU 6
U La-La 6
Texas Tech 7
Santa Barbara 7

Last 10 games: How are teams trending? The last 10 games is a good indication

Miss St. 10-0
Louisville 9-1
Miami 9-1
LSU 9-1
Virginia 9-1
Coastal 9-1
Clemson 8-2
Texas Tech 8-2
TCU 8-2
U La-La 7-3
Florida 6-4
Texas A&M 6-4
S. Carolina 6-4
Ole Miss 6-4
Vandy 6-4
FSU 4-6
UC Santa Barbara 4-6
NC State 2-8

Given these parameters, Clemson could clinch a region with a decent showing in Durham. The committee would have to put 3 sites in South Carolina, though, and I'm not sure they'd do that.

We shall see...

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As for the hosting race — the ACC has a real shot to get six hosts. Miami, Louisville and Virginia are locks, of course, and all three look like probably national seeds. Clemson completed a sweep at Notre Dame to finish 16-14 in the ACC, and the Tigers should be ahead of NC State (15-13) in the pecking order because they are close in the RPI and Clemson won the head-to-head series. Florida State (16-10) is ahead of both teams in the standings but behind in the RPI. Perhaps the Seminoles get squeezed out (especially after losing their last three ACC series), or perhaps NC State gets squeezed out, but Clemson (which won series against both of the other two) should host for sure. And you can make a strong case that all three should host. The ACC tournament could add some clarity to this picture.

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/postseason-picture-conference-rundown/

How we stand vs. other top 20 foes ...

D1Baseball article

Re: How we stand vs. other top 20 foes ...

doesn't our bid and $$$ promised to pay off the NCAA play a factor?

Great work but there likely will be a few huge wrenches thrown into it

Re: How we stand vs. other top 20 foes ...

Thanks Rev! +1 for good analysis***

I don't understand why the Coots get such a pass....

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