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Replies: 26
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 7:38 PM
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#1 Alabama wins out
#2 Clemson wins out
#3 Notre Dame wins out
#4 Michigan loses to Ohio State
#5 Georgia crushed by Alabama in SEC Championship Game
#6 Oklahoma loses to either WVU or to Texas in Big 12 Championship
#7 LSU loses to Texas A&M (or just gets jumped)
#8 Washington State loses to either Washington or Utah in the Pac-12 Championship
#9 UCF wins out
#10 Ohio State beats Michigan but chokes against Northwestern in Big 10 Championship
#11 Florida (who cares, they're out)
#12 Penn State (who cares, they're out)
#13 WVU loses to Oklahoma or wins first one and loses in Big 12 Championship
#14 Texas is probably too far back even if they make Big 12 Championship and beat Oklahoma (again)
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Hall of Famer [20945]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 7:40 PM
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I’ll bet you your username that happens...
Signed,
Jhop83®
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Guessing they would still take Georgia***
Nov 20, 2018, 7:41 PM
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CU Guru [1286]
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Re: Guessing they would still take Georgia***
Nov 20, 2018, 8:42 PM
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If Georgia loses they’re out
LSU would have a better shot
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Hall of Famer [24784]
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That's why LSU is still at #7... security blanket for SEC.***
Nov 21, 2018, 7:28 AM
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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LSU was losing in this scenario as well
Nov 21, 2018, 8:13 AM
[ in reply to Re: Guessing they would still take Georgia*** ] |
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And if Georgia loses to Bama in the SECCG, I don't think they are eliminated in a scenario where literally everyone else around them loses as well. I think the conference winners in this scenario are Bama, Clemson, Northwestern, Texas/WVU, and probably Utah. NW and Utah aren't making the playoff in any scenario, so unless they move 11-2 WVU all the way up to 4 (which i guess is possible since they would beat OU and Texas in the process), the 4th spot will go a non-champ with at least 2 losses. 11-2 Georgia would be squarely in that mix.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 7:41 PM
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That’s not that far fetched. Although I think Michigan or Oklahoma would give Bama a much stiffer test in the first round.
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All-TigerNet [13038]
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Individually, none of those things are very far fetched
Nov 20, 2018, 8:34 PM
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The combination of all of them actually happening is a bit far fetched though.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Re: Individually, none of those things are very far fetched
Nov 20, 2018, 8:51 PM
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Yeah the parlay of all those happenings would have a nice little payout
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Here's some numbers from ESPN
Nov 20, 2018, 9:06 PM
[ in reply to Individually, none of those things are very far fetched ] |
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I know TigerNet likes to hate on FPI, but here's their numbers.
Odds that Michigan wins out: 46.9% (55.1% that they don't)
Odds that Georgia wins out: 32.1% (67.9% that they don't)
Odds that Oklahoma wins out: 36% (64% that they don't)
Odds that Washington State wins out: 26.5% (73.5% that they don't)
Odds of my CFP scenario: (0.551 * 0.679 * 0.64 * 0.735) = 17.6%
That's 3 times as likely as South Carolina's odds of defeating Clemson this Saturday. Unlikely that they all happen, but close to 1-in-5 odds.
Note: If Clemson or Notre Dame doesn't win out, that only increases UCF's shot of moving into the top 4.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Seems ESPN is discussing nearly the same thing
Nov 20, 2018, 7:42 PM
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I think UCF might squeak in under this scenario.
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Standout [336]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 7:52 PM
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Stop at #4. Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are all winning out and Michigan will beat OSU. The defending "National Champions" have no shot.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 7:57 PM
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Vegas has Michigan -4 vs. OSU
ESPN's FPI gives OSU a 46% chance to win.
It's not that far-fetched for OSU to pull off the upset. More likely than Michigan wins, but definitely not a given.
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110%er [6651]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 9:34 PM
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Have you not seen OSU defense? or lack thereof? Rivalry game....guess anything can happen, but I'm picking Mich in the Pickem Contest.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 10:43 PM
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I've watched OSU many times this year (certainly more than most Clemson fans). I'm keenly aware of their porous defense and I've got Michigan in the ESPN College Pick'Em too (but probably not as high in the confidence points as you). This is not what I expect to happen. I'm just saying that it wouldn't be all that surprising given that the game is being played at the Shoe and OSU has a 6 game winning streak.
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110%er [5977]
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The CFP is owned and operated by the P5
Nov 20, 2018, 7:57 PM
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Conferences, the Orange Bowl is owned by the ACC, they aren’t inviting a non members. The AAC doesn’t have a repressive on the committee and one of their members isn’t getting an invite.
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Hall of Famer [20945]
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Re: The CFP is owned and operated by the P5
Nov 20, 2018, 8:04 PM
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I don’t want this to be true, but I have trouble believing it’s not.
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 8:02 PM
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My question is why do they care if they get in or not if they truly believe they won a NC last season to the point of putting up that big logo on their stadium?
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All-In [40934]
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if there are 5 undefeated power 5 teams are we left out?***
Nov 20, 2018, 8:05 PM
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Starter [393]
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Could happen...
Nov 20, 2018, 8:49 PM
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Lsu @ A&M, Oklahoma @ W.Va. Both could easily lose. Same with Washington St even though they're at home. If that happened, they're #6. Doesn't matter who wins Osu/Mich as they would still need NW to win title game. Uga loses to Bama, then they'd be #5, hoping for NW or Pitt to win. Remember, they destroyed Pittsburgh.
The problem as someone above stated, is that all of these things would have to happen in the next 2 weeks.
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Heisman Winner [111622]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 20, 2018, 8:55 PM
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I have Florida or NcState getting in first in this scenario. 
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CU Medallion [64590]
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There is no scenario where UCF gets in...
Nov 20, 2018, 9:22 PM
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Their schedule is too weak and they are undeserving.
The committee would take a one loss Alabama or a two-loss Georgia over UCF all day.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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You might be right about Georgia
Nov 20, 2018, 9:29 PM
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given that UCF is still ranked beneath 2-loss LSU who also got pummeled by Alabama (and Georgia would be pummeled by Alabama in my scenario).
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Orange Blooded [2504]
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In this same scenario ...
Nov 20, 2018, 9:38 PM
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...if Washington St wins out, they have a really good chance to beat UCF to the 4 spot.
I watched some of their late game last week after our game with Duke, and those guys are GOOD! Especially their offense. They will be a hand full for even our top flight defense.
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Re: In this same scenario ...
Nov 20, 2018, 10:49 PM
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That's why I have Washington State losing to either Washington or Utah in my scenario. Washington State would almost definitely be in the 4 spot without another loss and everything else outline above. They have a potent offense and are playing much better defense than any Leach team (ever). The loss to USC came on a questionable call. Their non conference schedule is trash, but they'd be in over UCF with everything else here and them winning out (adding quality P5 wins over #16 Washington and #17 Utah to their resume).
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Commissioner [905]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 21, 2018, 7:08 AM
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What would really be humorous would be to see GT take out Ga while AU takes out UA, then see Ga beat UA in SEC. If ND and UCF both undefeated which 2 loss SEC jumps Meechigan? Now that might be fun to see play out.
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CU Guru [1222]
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Re: Not So Crazy CFP Scenario for UCF
Nov 21, 2018, 7:25 AM
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If all that happens....Ohio State is in the playoff.
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