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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 4:54 PM
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interesting site that breaks down coaching records and also other factors of the Strength of Schedule
Coach Wins Loses Winning % SOS
Brad Brownell 210 55 .575 6.86
Purnell 138 88 .611 8.05
Larry Shyatt 70 84 .455 6.65
R Barnes 74 48 .607 9.46
Cliff Ellis 179 129 .581 10.57
Foster 156 106 .595 11.12
Now, one of the things that caused the SOS to go down is playing less round robin conference opponents twice back in the 80's and 90's.
As you can see Coach Brownell is closer to Foster and Ellis as far as winning percentage than he is Oliver Purnell and Rick Barnes.
Here is that reference site if anyone one to take a look at it...
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/bill-c-foster-1.html
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 4:58 PM
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So Brownell has more wins than any other basketball coach as Clemson?
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:00 PM
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Yes he does. So that is admirable, but he also has the most loses.
Now he has been here the longest also going on his 12th season now.
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CU Medallion [62033]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:05 PM
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Brown L also has the next to lowest win percentage of those listed.
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110%er [8038]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 4:59 PM
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Wondering what is the point of your post? Just general info or what point are you trying to make?
Note much difference between any of the top four but Shyatt being clearly a lesser coach.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:02 PM
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Yes, Shyatt was definitely bad compared to any of the other 4 for sure.
Just showing those who have argued who has the best records and SOS is a factor also.
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:13 PM
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I am lost regarding the SOS number. 6.86. Our schedule is ranked that high?
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:14 PM
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Love to know how things would have ended up if Barnes would have stayed here 10 plus years.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 7, 2022, 12:54 PM
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Not really - I really do not like their SoS metric. It is a point differential method. Useful but it lists OP's 07-08 season as 9.04 (Ranked 4th overall). That was not a good slate. Not as weak but noth the 4th best. A lot of rubbish teams and only UNC/Duke matchups against a ranked opponent.
It is more about a points produced metric vs expectation. Even then, it would actually give a easier schedule a higher SoS if you tend to blow out average teams, not if you are competitive against upper-tier teams. In addition, not accounting for home/away. It also overvalues a weak team getting the snot beaten out of it. OP's best year for SOS is 03-04 which skews his overall SOS.
I mean, it ranked the 06-07 season as 30th hardest overall despite us being left out of the dance for a weak schedule despite 22 wins.
It is a very simple and flawed
There explanation.
College Basketball SRS: SRS for college hoops is straight forward (no HFA & no adjusted MOV), but one item to note is that games against non-major opponents are not counted in our calculations.
...
Strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.
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All-In [44064]
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^^ Excellent analysis right here!!
Jan 7, 2022, 2:02 PM
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Well done!
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Go pull SOS and rpi index history and it shows we had a top 25
Jan 7, 2022, 2:58 PM
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How about we take the top 20 SOS for Clemson
1 Oliver Purnell (10-18)
2 Rick Barnes (23-10)
3 Rick Barnes (18-14)
4 Brad Brownell (17-16)
5 Brad Brownell (16-8)
6 Brad Brownell (25-10)
7 Oliver Purnell (24-10)
8 Cliff Ellis (11-17)
9 Brad Brownell (20-14)
10 Oliver Purnell (16-16)
11 Rick Barnes (15-13)
12 Larry Shyatt (12-19)
13 Rick Barnes (18-11)
14 Oliver Purnell (21-11)
15 Brad Brownell (16-15)
16 Oliver Purnell (25-11)
17 Cliff Ellis (19-11)
18 Cliff Ellis (17-13)
19 Larry Shyatt (10-20)
20 Cliff Ellis (14-14)
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Your grasping from straws...
Jan 7, 2022, 3:08 PM
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Brad has been here for 12 seasons, OP was here for 7. That is almost twice as long. My main argument when this whole thing started was OP had 4 straight 20 win seasons before he got greedy and left was that we were relevant and mattered.
Are we doing that consistently now. Too much up and down.
Go add to wins decided by 4 games or less and OP, Barnes and others had better records than Brad.
Brad has been here 12 years and he has more than enoug time to get on a consistent level of winning, but if we don't make the tourney this season, the NCAAT that is-- it proves what many have said. Things are getting stale...
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Your grasping from straws...
Jan 7, 2022, 3:15 PM
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Not really, just I do not buy the idea that OP was winning more against stiffer competition. That is just not true.
Brad had to win with even more dated facilities and being homeless and when he does win he has against harder opponents. We do not know if OP could win without having a undiscovered long-term NBA talent. (Booker).
Man, I don't want to dig through 4 point or less, but my guess is that OP would not look very good. He had a attendance to win by a lot or lose by a little so it might make him look worse.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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110%er [6825]
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Re: This proves your theory wrong on 09-10
Jan 7, 2022, 3:09 PM
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Yeah 2009/10 wasn't a bad year but it wasn't the toughest
It isn't a theory, I am using sports-reference own glossary/methods here
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/about/glossary.html
"SOS Strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Non-major opponents are included as a single team in the ratings. My colleague Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method. "
It is really more of a football metric as there are other SOS approaches that might be better but I am working with the information provided.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:26 PM
[ in reply to Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson... ] |
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Another thing that makes this number go up is look at Ellis. He probably played more top 5 and top 10 teams in the country because he had to play all of them twice who were in the ACC. It was a gauntlet back then. So that is why is number is higher than the others.
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 7:31 PM
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Cliff was def above average when looking at Clemson basketball.
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All-In [31315]
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110%er [5513]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson... ] |
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The stats show that Brownell is the second worst statistically of those in the list. He has had the second easiest schedule and the second worst record.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:38 PM
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The stats show that Brownell is the second worst statistically of those in the list. He has had the second easiest schedule and the second worst record.
True. A lot of people come on here and say that Brad has the best ACC record but comparable speaking, The ACC has been comparable weak to most of the other coaches. You play less teams twice now than Ellis, Barnes, and OP.
Shyatt had a weaker SOS because his out of conference schedule was really bad most years. Also, there were some ACC teams that were really bad when he was here. When Shyatt was the coach at Wyoming his SOS was 2. something.
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Legend [16930]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 7:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson... ] |
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Yea the ACC in basketball is no where close to what it was even 10 years ago. I believe a few weeks back there was 1 ACC team in the top 20. Correct me as I could be wrong but that’s what I thought I had seen.
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110%er [5513]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:31 PM
[ in reply to Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson... ] |
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The stats show that Brownell is the second worst statistically of those in the list. He has had the second easiest schedule and the second worst record.
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Associate AD [813]
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I truly wish that was his W-L record***
Jan 6, 2022, 5:56 PM
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: I truly wish that was his W-L record***
Jan 6, 2022, 7:53 PM
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That was a typo. It should be 155.
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Orange Blooded [2287]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 5:56 PM
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Interesting. Excluding Shyatt, these percentages imply that all of these coaches would be averaging +/-1 win difference per season. If this is true, no prior coach has been significantly better than the others.
Of course you would expect longer tenured coaches to have a higher win percentage in later years than at the beginning though also.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 6:08 PM
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Yeah, you could truly go to the offical media guide and break down the last 4 or 5 seasons for the coaches that were here more than 7 seasons. Brad and OP would have a higher % then especially OP's last 4 years.
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110%er [6153]
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Brownell is as good as we’re going to get ... face it.
Jan 6, 2022, 6:18 PM
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Under prevailing circumstances, Brad Brownell is as good as we’re going to get at Clemson.
I too get weary reading Judge Keller constantly railing against circumstances.
He’s not wrong, but so what? What difference does it make?
It is what it is.
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Freshman [-79]
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I don't get it?
Jan 6, 2022, 11:38 PM
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"Under prevailing circumstances, Brad Brownell is as good as we're going to get at Clemson"
The numbers the OP gave showed several coaches who did a lot better with less than the "prevailing circumstances" Brad has now. Clemson has everything we need to recruit and coach a program accomplishing more than we have been.
Brad seems like an awesome guy with a ton of character, but Clemson University can have a better basketball program than what we've been. I wish he could do it, but.....
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110%er [6153]
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All those coaches quit on Clemson ... get it now?
Jan 7, 2022, 12:07 AM
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They left because Clemson wasn’t good enough. They didn’t think they could prosper long term at Clemson and they looked for greener pastures.
“Prevailing circumstances” are that only Brad has wanted to stick around and keep trying to elevate a program with an historic burden of futility.
He hasn’t been particularly successful, but at least he’s been willing to try. He hasn’t quit on us.
So ... he’s the best we’re going to get unless we enjoy being a stepping stone for ambitious coaches.
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110%er [5513]
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Re: All those coaches quit on Clemson ... get it now?
Jan 7, 2022, 9:50 AM
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Those coaches left because they were sought after. Brad isn't.
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All-In [44064]
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If you honestly believe no other programs have shown
Jan 7, 2022, 2:07 PM
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interest in Brad since he's been at Clemson, or would love to have him as their coach, you really don't understand his good reputation in the industry.
To believe what you stated, you have to believe:
1. That no other programs recognize his success at Clemson, in terms of wins as well as academic success.
2. Clemson is so stupid that it continues to give him raises and extensions.
Is that what you believe?
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110%er [5513]
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Re: If you honestly believe no other programs have shown
Jan 7, 2022, 2:10 PM
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I believe no BIGGER program is after him. He won't get a better contract, better facilities, or better tolerance for mediocrity anywhere else. So sure, I bet some schools would like to have them. Just like Walmart would like to have me as a cashier...but I ain't going.
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All-In [44064]
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So Clemson's athletic department, board of trustees, and
Jan 7, 2022, 3:20 PM
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president are all idiots for giving this bad coach continued raises and contract extensions?
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110%er [5513]
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Re: So Clemson's athletic department, board of trustees, and
Jan 7, 2022, 3:31 PM
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You are calling them idiots, not me.
If you are going to keep a coach, you have to keep extending him to at least 4 years. Otherwise, it hurts recruiting if it looks like the coach will be out before the player's 4 years are up. It's common practice.
I expect you'll see Neff handle it differently.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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110%er [6153]
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You can say it, but you can’t prove it.
Jan 7, 2022, 9:00 AM
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All available evidence indicates that Clemson is truly incapable of hiring (and keeping) a really good basketball coach.
The hiring part is hard, but the keeping part has been much harder.
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All-In [27347]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 6:39 PM
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Your numbers are wrong. Brad Brownell has lost 155 games not 55 games.
His record is not the issue. The issue is the program is stale. Zero fan excitement. Zero player excitement. And just plain old boring basketball most games. It’s just time for a change.
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All-In [44064]
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What are you talking about?
Jan 6, 2022, 7:37 PM
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Zero player excitement? What is that statement based on?
Plain old boring basketball? What is that statement based on?
It’s almost as if you are just repeating the same tired old sayings that support your argument that you want a change. And if you do, that’s fine. But please stop making ridiculous statements.
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All-In [27347]
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Re: What are you talking about?
Jan 6, 2022, 8:50 PM
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Those statements are made based on my opinions and observations. And nothing more. Just voicing my opinion. And from the looks of things I seem to share the same opinion and observations as many others.
No hard feelings but I feel it’s time for a change. 12 years. It’s been good. Not great. New blood will energize the program.
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Orange Blooded [4467]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 7:47 PM
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Unfortunately fans have given up on Brownell. Too much beating a team by 17 and then getting beat by same team by10. The Bowden comparison is real. If Clemson is going to have any new energy from their fan base for Mens BB we are going to have to go in a different direction. I personally like Brownell and respect him for running a clean program and graduating most of his guys. He represents Clemson well. However at some point you got to be more of a consistent winner than he is. After 12 years it is what it is and is not all of a sudden going to get any better. As they say, keep on doing the same thing and you will keep on getting the same results.
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 7:59 PM
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If we could recruit a few 5 stars that would get me excited. And not a Milton Jennings 5 star.
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Legend [16930]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 7, 2022, 3:11 PM
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Who coached Milton? A certain pro-Brownell poster thinks all the blame for DJU’s struggles should be laid at the feet of our football staff. But somehow the same rule didn’t apply to Milton? Brownell inherited one of the highest ranked group of players in Clemson (admittedly limited) basketball history. He himself explicitly stated it wasn’t a rebuilding situation. Somehow his advocates have convinced most that they were all busts and the OP and his staff have complete responsibility. Everyone except Brownell is always the guilty party.
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 6, 2022, 10:01 PM
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Did Purnell ever play a decent OOC schedule?
Brownell has a better ACC winning percentage. Purnell notoriously played crap teams at the beginning of the year
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All-TigerNet [11492]
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Look at the SOS I showed...
Jan 7, 2022, 6:16 AM
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That includes non conference games. Go look at the last three of four years and his SOS for each of those seasons was pretty good.
Beat good teams like Purdue, Butler, ODU, at Illinois at, at Miss State, Temple, ect...
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Freshman [-79]
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Am I reading that correctly in that Brad had the 2nd lowest winning % against
Jan 6, 2022, 10:06 PM
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the second lowest SOS?
I like Brad. I really do. But...
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Commissioner [976]
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Looks like Purnell won more against tougher opponents
Jan 7, 2022, 1:18 AM
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After taking over a program in shambles. Brownlee has had the best facilities of the bunch, yet won less often than Purnell against easier schedules.
It’s almost like what we’ve all known for the past 10 years is correct. And proof we can and have done much better than Brownlee.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Looks like Purnell won more against tougher opponents
Jan 7, 2022, 2:20 PM
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Not really.
OP's best SoS schedule was when he got lambasted in the 03-04 season with a 10 win team. Even if that team was playing today they would have been a 10 win (or worse) team. Granted no fault on OP for rebuilding but the SoS - which is really a point differential expectation metric is very flawed.
For example OP's Tournament teams faced a SOS of 9.08, 6.59 and 7.9.
OP danced on his 2nd, 5th, and 6th (of 7) most difficult schedules.
OP only had one winning record in a season with an SOS of 8.00 or higher (of three)
Brads Tournament teams faced a SOS of 6.58, 9.25, 9.49
2st, 3nd, 8th (of 11) difficult schedules.
Brad had a winning record in ALL 4 of his seasons with a SOS of 8.00 or higher.
Brad actually had a harder path for his better reams.
What drags down Brad SOS is the 11/12 and 12/13 season - both weak season for ACC in the 1 and done transition. But what AD person would intentionally schedule a hard SOS for a coach in their 2md and 3rd year.
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Orange Blooded [4036]
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Hard to argue with facts
Jan 7, 2022, 7:26 AM
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Something that many people don’t bring to the table. (Or they provide partial facts - like “is the winningist coach is Clemson history”)
Someone on here continues to diss Purnell and his accomplishments. If only he had anyone who could have made a free throw. Lol
Ellis and Foster were good coaches during the ACC dominance. A .500 ACC team was almost guaranteed a dance invite and was generally very strong OOC.
Now, the ACC is so bad, I am not sure how many past Duke will get invited. Other than the era of conf champs only, has the ACC gotten 1 team in? None other than Duke is in the top 30.
Good data, is there in black and white.
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Rock Defender [59]
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Re: Hard to argue with facts
Jan 7, 2022, 7:40 AM
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After 12 years, we have facts and a verifiable record. For better or worse, CBB is a 0.500 coach. If the AD decides that is a good value for $3M/year and paying off a $65M facility upgrade, then we should accept mediocrity and fan apathy.
However, if we want to be a program that spends $1M on young coaches and knows they will leave when the win a lot, make a deep tournament run and recruit well, then we should be prepared to be a stepping stone program.
Neff, are we mediocre/apathy or stepping stone/exciting? Are we Bowden/Hatfield or Dabo/Ford?
Flame away Judge Keller.
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All-In [44064]
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You're basing a lot on a strength of schedule rating
Jan 7, 2022, 2:19 PM
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that is highly suspect. FutureDoc outlined some significant concerns with their SOS metric, so you should check his post out.
It is amazing to me that some of our fans, including you, continue to ignore the recent trend for our program. I read post after post saying that Brownell needs to make more NCAA Tournaments. Well, he's been in 2 of the last 3 NCAA Tournaments. One of those was a Sweet 16 run, and last year we were a top 30 national seed. The other year we made the NIT. One of those years there was no postseason play due to the pandemic.
Over that four year stretch, we are 77-57 with an average ACC finish of 6th. That is well above being a .500 coach.
I see reason for excitement based on this, coupled with the fact that we have some nice talent on our roster with some good talent arriving this summer as well.
As mentioned here many times, we spend far less on basketball than most other ACC teams when you look at total program expenditures. Our basketball history is near the bottom of the ACC. Our fan support is near the bottom of the ACC.
Yet our basketball program is well above average over the last four years.
So as I've always said, if you are not satisfied with these results, let's talk about what it will take to improve them. In my opinion, removing the coach who has significantly overachieved based on the significant disadvantages he has to deal with isn't the right move.
Could we get a better coach? Possibly. The question is, would he be able to win more at Clemson than Brownell has? And would he do things the right way? And would he want to stay at Clemson? Could we keep him long-term?
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110%er [6825]
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Re: You're basing a lot on a strength of schedule rating
Jan 7, 2022, 2:22 PM
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Just posted a deeper dive of the SOS between coaches.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: You're basing a lot on a strength of schedule rating
Jan 7, 2022, 2:22 PM
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Above
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Legend [16930]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 7, 2022, 2:44 PM
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I love how everyone clapping back at this post supposedly did their own deep dive but no one has pointed out that the OP completely transposed these numbers wrong. There are two stats on the website - SRS and SOS. They mean completely different things and he randomly went back and forth between them (I’m sure unintentionally). But everyone else rebutting him after their extensive work doesn’t even seem to have noticed this so I’m really confident you truly did a deep dive. The pro Brownell crowd rejects any statistics that cast him in a bad light. They reject statistical analysis that makes him look bad and embrace emotional arguments. But most maddening is the constant binary choice between Purnell and Brownell - a choice that doesn’t even exist in the real world. No one - absolutely no one - is arguing to bring back Purnell. Purnell salvaged a program that had hit a historical bottom and restored it to a level uncommon in our history. What should be indisputable is that the early years of Brownell’s tenure were a major step backwards and it took him the better part of a decade to return to anything close to what he inherited. He loses more games to sub 100 RPI teams than any of his predecessors - including Shyatt. If it weren’t for this he’d have comfortably made at least the NIT virtually every year and the NCAA probably twice as often. It’s early January and we already have 2 sub 100 NET and RPI losses, only a single game against a ranked opponent left, and a schedule against teams so bad we’ll have to be virtually perfect to make the post season. History is not on his side.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Site Breaks down Basketball Coaches record at Clemson...
Jan 7, 2022, 3:47 PM
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I dont think the transpose error for Ellis/Foster SRS and SOS matters much. If anything it dispells that things were magically harder back then. Noted but meh. However, it should give Rick Barnes more credit too, those were both our best and hardest stretch - but not his hardest (those came at Tennessee).
Secondly, in the reference site, the SOS is based off the SRS - From there methods, SOS is basically a metric of averaged SRS of opponents point diff. Added and then averaged over a season. I mean, it is a way to measure but it is flawed. It will not measure the "extremes". Beating a lot of bad teams will both overemphasize it as well as being obliterated by a good team. There are better ways but I digress.
"One equation for each team [SRS]. The number just after the equal sign is that team's average point margin. ...
So every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the strength of their opponents. Thus an average team would have a rating of zero. Suppose a team plays a schedule that is, overall, exactly average. Then the sum of the terms in parentheses would be zero and the team's rating would be its average point margin. If a team played a tougher-than-average schedule, the sum of the terms in parentheses would be positive and so a team's rating would be bigger than its average point margin.
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