Replies: 48
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Legend [18407]
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:11 PM
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I may be naive, but I don't think it will be even close as bad as the predictions for the USA. I think there will be football season even.
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Legend [16867]
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Alright...two points...or maybe they're questions
Apr 5, 2020, 9:20 PM
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Or...just something to think about...instead of drawing lines in the sand and filling with Quikrete: 1. What in the history of this nation makes anyone think the current situation would be different, regardless the party in control? Seriously, is political affiliation that powerful?
2. All these questions around COD months back...fine...they're suspect. That said, why did the virus take some period of time off before exploding further on the scene. More so...if it was #19, why didn't the doctor, coroner, morgue personnel...etc., not contract the disease? It's not a living, breathing thing, so...?
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Alright...two points...or maybe they're questions
Apr 5, 2020, 9:48 PM
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Two excellent questions/observations. I would suspect the coroner may have had protective gear. They're supposed too but you don't know.
Maybe suspect about going dormant, maybe not. I'd have to have more info on the surrounding circumstances. Remember, people were sick in China in early December.
Same anomalies exist in the big easy. If in fact marde gra caused the big explosions, why 6 weeks later...
My opinion is that it's been in the country a lot longer. Just seems to reason.
As to your first question, not sure what you're getting at but if you're speaking from a political persuasion, it would have been no different. My disappointment is we've spent a ton of taxes building homeland security for just these purposes.
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Legend [16867]
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Actually, Mardi Gras
Apr 5, 2020, 10:10 PM
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Fits with the timeline perfectly. Fat Tuesday was February 25...the incubation can run to 14 days...and subsequent asymptomatic folks run around another 14 days...and we're in late March with a massive problem. Regardless, despite what's been learned of the virus, it's the 'what we don't yet know', if anything, that's troubling.
My first question was sarcasm, but I didn't elevate it sufficiently to detect. Shame on me...I need to up my game! I despise politics...and lemmings!
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Actually, Mardi Gras
Apr 6, 2020, 12:31 AM
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My Bad. Hence the TD I suppose. For whatever reason I thought Mardi gras was first couple weeks in Feb.
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110%er [7831]
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Xactly... Seems hard for some to understand for some reason.***
Apr 6, 2020, 3:30 PM
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Oculus Spirit [77011]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:17 PM
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Hang in there... The next two weeks we all need to hunker down.
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Legend [17294]
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Not sure anything nefarious ... just local jurisdictions
Apr 5, 2020, 9:23 PM
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dealing with a new virus in the early days of a pandemic. Certainly lack of testing early made “cause of death” determination uncertain. Any suggestion of a conspiracy is a stretch.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Not sure anything nefarious ... just local jurisdictions
Apr 5, 2020, 9:59 PM
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??? Where'd the suggestion of conspiracy come from?
As for test, no reason every single dhec dept didn't have ones in March. Not in this day and time. We've had enough practice on pandemics...
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All-TigerNet [13152]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:26 PM
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Thousands of people die every year from the flu and the cause is usually listed as pneumonia. Been going on for decades, but now you are upset? Let’s waste limited testing on dead people, that makes sense.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:28 PM
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This has not been going on for decades. The mortality rate for the flu is .01% Apples and Oranges
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Orange Blooded [3617]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 10:14 PM
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I believe his point is that coroners misdiagnose a CoD quite frequently, particularly when the death of a host interrupts the life cycle of a pathogen. It is not always an exact science, and in most circumstances it's not as though absolute accuracy is demanded.
Ducky makes it look far easier than it is.
I don't think blaming a government, governmental entity or type of government makes any sense, either.
Many low-level "health officials" are speculating about this virus' similarities to other respiratory ailments last fall and winter, but NO credible source can pinpoint why an outbreak could have occurred in Shelby or Augusta or anywhere else in the US prior to Feb. We had friends who flew thru Wuhan in November on their way back to China, but they had not passed thru on their way here in the first place. Yet that didn't stop a dear nurse friend from irresponsibly telling my wife she had probably already contracted and recovered from COVID. The wife and i agreed to disregard her opinion.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 12:58 AM
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Not sure what you're saying but would love to continue the debate at your pleasure. Thanks.
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Orange Blooded [3617]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 9:24 AM
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Ok, that's fair.
The first paragraph was explanation of Keowee's point about missed CoD. Just because he and others keep talking about the similarities between this and the flu doesn't mean their points are irrelevant. The context was 'misdiagnosis.'
Second paragraph was a defense of the American government that you impugned, and don't understand why you felt the need to do that. Would you rather have China's? Or just Nancy Pelosi's? Maybe Boris Johnson's? Are we grossly incompetent, opaque and non communicative, or hyperbolic and misleading?
Third paragraph is a rejection of the notion given by well-meaning and personally well-liked health people that are punching out of their weight class. The coroner of Shelby, AL is not an epidemiologist. She needs to stop doing media interviews unless she can find evidence of an outbreak. The same would be true of our dear nurse friend if she spoke to the media instead of us, who know she sometimes expresses opinions that are not yet thought thru.
I realize that sometimes people suffer from strange inexplicable ailments. The coroner needs to realize they also die from them. And I'm sure she does; I imagine this environment of heightened awareness and disjointed 'expert' voices makes it very easy to speculate to a sympathetic reporter. Hey, everybody else is! And if talking to a reporter gets you and your county increased attention and possibly federal money, why not?
Because it's irresponsible, that's why.
Not sure that was any clearer, but thanks for asking.??
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Orange Blooded [3617]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 9:33 AM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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I guess your point is the inconsistency in testing and reporting rather than the speculation by reporters and low-level health officials (and by low level, I mean people who don't normally have access to the media).
Sorry, i was talking to the other end of the stick.
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Orange Blooded [3617]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 9:33 AM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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I guess your point is the inconsistency in testing and reporting rather than the speculation by reporters and low-level health officials (and by low level, I mean people who don't normally have access to the media).
Sorry, i was talking to the other end of the stick.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 10:43 AM
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Yes. Can't thank you enough for the second post. Good debate and really appreciate the input. My post was never meant to be political... I hate politics even though I worked"against the grain" for 33 years in state government.
And to answer your posts- I don't want anything to do with Pelosi or China or Trump et al. I do like what South Korea has done. They've done a good job at studying and taking good from all systems... I digress.
I wasn't looking at too much from the details, more from a technology standpoint. We've had some excellent ideas rise up from the underlings and engineering etc that were great until they got mired in politics.... Unfortunately.
Imho, there is no excuse for not having a national reporting system or strategy for a pandemic or for that matter, the seasonal flu.
Second, I know at one time homeland security was studying this as well as threats. We put tons of money and effort into fighting a cyber attack. Done pretty good too, thanks Marines!
We were also planning and studying biological attacks... But we concentrated more on if a new York etc got hit. Although I was told by my Marine cyber contact that they were addressing response to a pandemic such as this but the country and irresponsible media got mired in being political correct and the sensation was to elect a woman or a African American instead of staying the course.
Anyway, that's a whole other debate. We need to change and when it comes to things as simple as this reporting, no reason we shouldn't have a national consistently streamline way to capture this and our response in near real time.
Thanks again for your input. You're obviously extremely smart and well read.
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110%er [7219]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 9:33 AM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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The death rate for Influenza is 0.1%. Not meaning to slam anyone, but the levels of misinformation and poor "guesses" on this board right now is hard to wade through. Those expecting the federal government to make life "safe" and free of risk is especially disappointing. Are we so brainwashed in this country that we expect the government to save us? God helps those that help themselves.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:32 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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Never said I was "upset". Have you ever worked in government? You seem mighty obsessed with pushing your flu agenda. Curious why.
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Legend [16867]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:35 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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Try using the brain you were given, Keowee....when have you EVER seen the hospitals of this nation overwhelmed by the flu? When were refrigerator trucks parked out back to collect the bodies? When have the crematoriums been allowed to 'burn' 24/7 trying to keep up? Many more questions could be offered up, too, but you're probably trying to form a dismissive response to the first question, rather than face up to the reality of this situation.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 10:10 PM
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Thanks Salty and CBad and bbo. Good insight and darn good questions to think about... Was going to say the p word but don't have a pic.
Anyway, I really appreciate it. And yes CBad, I pray the numbers will be much lower... And I do believe we will have football. Parasite drug showing a lot of promise and it too has been around.
Thanks again all - Be safe!!!!
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Oculus Spirit [77011]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 10:25 PM
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Have your back.
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110%er [5436]
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CU Medallion [57156]
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Updated model
Apr 6, 2020, 2:35 AM
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Updated April 5th shows NY will likely need 5,664 ventilators when they hit their peak 4 days from now. Don’t know how many NY had to begin with but the Feds have already sent them 4,000. Yet Cuomo says NY needs 40,000(!) for the peak, worst case. This model shows less than 11,000 in the wildest worst case. I wonder where he’s getting his estimate?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections![](https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Data_viz/COVID-19%20Projections%20OG.png) IHME | COVID-19 Projections Explore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deaths for all 50 US states and District of Columbia
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All-TigerNet [12251]
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I've been trying to reconcile the whole ventilator modeling
Apr 6, 2020, 2:30 PM
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with the media and some of the Gubernatorial requests/hysteria. It just doesn't match up - especially with a one dimensional thinking media who basically can't seem to grasp the concept of time phased logistics. We regularly did these kinds of ops in the military so it is not a new concept by any means. Instead, the media wants to look at one total maximum number and assume we need that whole number right now.
After looking into this a bit, I found the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) released a study on 19 March (later updated on 25 March 2020), titled U.S. ICU Resource Availability for COVID-19. This study does a good job or laying out the total ICU assets in the USA and was/is concerned we do not have enough assets to meet the COVID-19 threat. At the time of the study, they were using a model that projected 1.9 million US ICU patients. The updated modeling is showing significantly less ICU projections - now showing a max of 70,000 ICU beds required at the peak. Regardless, the SCCM found the following:
"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) and other ventilator sources: The SNS has an estimated 12,700 ventilators for emergency deployment, according to recent public announcements from National Institutes of Health officials.12 These devices are also not full featured but offer basic ventilatory modes. In simulation testing they performed very well despite long-term storage. Accessing the SNS requires hospital administrators to request that state health officials ask for access to this equipment. SNS can deliver ventilators within 24-36 hours of the federal decision to deploy them. States may have their own ventilator stockpiles as well. Respiratory therapy departments also rent ventilators from local companies to meet either baseline and/or seasonal demand, further expanding their supply. Additionally, many modern anesthesia machines are capable of ventilating patients and can be used to increase hospitals' surge capacity.
The addition of older hospital ventilators, SNS ventilators, and anesthesia machines increases the absolute number of ventilators to possibly above 200,000 units nationally. Many of the additional and older ventilators, however, may not be capable of sustained use or of adequately supporting patients with severe acute respiratory failure. Also, supplies for these ventilators may be unavailable due to interruptions in the international supply chain. Alternatively, ventilator manufacturers could be encouraged to rapidly produce modern full-featured ventilators to allow experienced clinicians to use supplemental ventilators that are familiar to them and can be readily incorporated into the hospital ventilator fleet and informatics systems. An analysis of the literature suggests, however, that U.S. hospitals could absorb a maximum of 26,000 to 56,000 additional ventilators at the peak of a national pandemic, as safe use of ventilators requires trained personnel."
If the SCCM data is correct (I suspect it is fairly accurate), the USA, as a whole, has more than enough ventilators to meet current projections. The trick is that we need to be able to take ventilators from some areas of the country and re-distribute them to other areas. This requires cooperation at the State and hospital level with someone at the Federal level directing the moving pieces of this - keeping track of everything. Supposedly this is on FEMA and Admiral John Polowczyk to do - I just hope they have been coordinating this kind of response and will eventually explain it at one of those press conferences.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Polowczyk should be handling the quartermastering forward..
Apr 6, 2020, 3:43 PM
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That guy sounded sharp and no BS last night...
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Polowczyk should be handling the quartermastering forward..
Apr 6, 2020, 4:02 PM
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Very very sharp and glad y'all brought that up. Great posts. Say it much better than I can.
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110%er [7219]
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Orange Blooded [2663]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 4:22 PM
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no, there are not mass graves in Iran. There were two hundred yard sections added to a cemetery, and everyone has been freaking out. Islam demands that people be buried very quickly once dead, so if you have several thousand people die of covid 19, which they've had, they have to go in the ground in a hurry.
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110%er [5436]
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All-TigerNet [10498]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 9:48 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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It’s madness. Just listen to these brainwashed fools. It’s like people just started dying a couple weeks ago.
I guess every time a new virus pops up like they been doing for thousands of years we are going to put more than half the country out of work.
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Legend [16867]
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I'm going to hazard a guess that you're
Apr 5, 2020, 9:52 PM
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Really a psychology professor conducting a 'social' experiment...paralleling human and lemming behavior.
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Oculus Spirit [77011]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 10:20 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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It’s rather ordinary for someone to think this way. Even if you don’t believe what you are saying, knowing you are just trying to get a rise out of people with everything to lose from this deadly virus. Yea, there has been bad $heet killing people for centuries, but it doesn’t detract from the very real, very relevant issue consuming our minds & lives on a daily basis as it has for weeks on end.
I don’t want bad to come of anyone this virus contacts and especially not those taking it seriously. Those that aren’t, you were warned. Those that make fun of and or mock those that do, you are no better than the ignorant mongo making fun of the kid with special needs.
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110%er [5436]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 10:45 PM
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What about H1N1 ? This so far is nothing
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Oculus Spirit [77011]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 11:12 PM
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People are missing the point. Stop comparing one to another. What this is, is. No more, no less. People are dying. Hoping for the fewest mourned. That’s the point.
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110%er [5436]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 11:43 PM
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H1N1 killed a lot of people but we didn’t bankrupt the country
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 5, 2020, 11:58 PM
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Because of the potential for death from the flu doesn't compare. The mortality rate for the flu is only .01%. 1 in 1000 diagnosed with the flu die. There is a vaccine too. It's very predictable. 2.5 in 100 at the moment diagnosed with Coronavirus die in the USA so far. Its way worse than that in Italy of course. Apples and Oranges. This is much less predictable at the moment.
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Legend [18407]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 12:56 AM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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Wrong about h1n1. In the year of the first arrival it did end up killing 12,000 estimated people in the U.S.. Most were young people. Didn't affect older people like this is. Yes, that's 12k more souls than it should have.... And schools were closed since it was affecting younger people.
It's since been determined and studied that a lot of those 12k didn't get the flu shot which offered some protection. Won't disagree it should have been a far greater outcry... Plus we did go the route of herd immunity. 70 million were infected.
Be that as it may, as salt and cbad point out, apples to oranges. The problem with c19 is it takes a ton of resources to care for one patient. Avg hospital stay 21 days as opposed to h1n1 where a lot of peeps went to the hospital and were released with meds. So it wasn't a long drawn out illness. We let this go and people literally would be dropping on the street.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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110%er [5072]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 4:32 PM
[ in reply to Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals ] |
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I would strongly urge you to never use the expression "ignorant mongo" anywhere that it could get you fired. Many would assume it was short for "mongoloid," which is an old, incredibly offensive slang for someone with Down syndrome.
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Oculus Spirit [77011]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 6:46 PM
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That doesn’t hold up given the content of the entire statement. Don’t turn it into something it’s not when it clearly isn’t...
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CU Guru [1446]
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Re: Interesting and disturbing story on C19 Death Totals
Apr 6, 2020, 1:05 AM
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The complete opposite is occurring. But keep reading liberal media
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Oculus Spirit [97737]
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No one dies from covid
Apr 6, 2020, 4:48 AM
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I look at death certificates daily. Have seen thousands of them. People are now dying from respiratory failure, heart failure, renal failure, etc.
There is usually one or two lives under the technical cause of death that read "secondary to". So you die of a myocardial infarction secondary to arteriosclerosis. Or respiratory failure secondary to influenza. Or Blunt force trauma secondary to a MVA.
Haven't seen one yet but I expect the technical cause of death is never going to be covid. And if you're never tested.... Well....
Message was edited by: Tiggity®
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Legend [18407]
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Re: No one dies from covid
Apr 6, 2020, 10:03 AM
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Great post. Thank you.
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