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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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BlackRock CEO spills the beans, sort of.
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Mar 28, 2024, 8:47 AM
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Three things I was raised to believe in, that I wrote off in my 20's. Not many people have joined me apparently, but whatever. They will, eventually, one way or another. Those three things are 1) pensions, 2) "retirement", and 3) Social Security.
Let me break this down. Pensions first. The idea that a company can continue to pay you in perpetuity based on younger people working there paying you after you stop producing for the company, then pay them in perpetuity, forever, just isn't possible. And it wasn't/isn't, which....is why pensions are gone now. Second, the idea of retirement. We are all sold a bill of goods by the BlackRock types that if you INVEST, give THEM YOUR money, throughout your lifetime, you can "retire", stop working, stop producing, and live a life of leisure playing golf and traveling the world. The reality is by the time you retire, your health has declined to a point where you need every penny of that, and then some, to pay for your healthcare. Forget about that year of traveling the world, or the endless rounds of golf. That money is going to keep you alive. Third, is Social Security. It is intended to force people into investing for this mythical "retirement" concept. Also key to the plan is when you reach the magical year of 65, you may be a shuffling, demented old man in skilled nursing, or you may be lucky and still be healthy. Either way, you're living another 20 years somehow. And social security was never intended to fund people living as long as they do today. When social security began, MOST PEOPLE died before getting their first check. Like pensions and the whole idea of retirement, it's unsustainable.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/blackrocks-larry-fink-sees-social-security-crisis-says-65-retirement-age-a-bit-crazy.html
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Heisman Winner [135616]
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So, if I understand what you're trying to say here...
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Mar 28, 2024, 8:58 AM
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What we need is a deadly pandemic that happens in conjunction with a World War, and all followed up with an alien invasion of Earth to balance the scales. At least, that's what comes to mind every time I have to drive in afternoon traffic.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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No. What I'm saying is don't depend on other people's promises.***
Mar 28, 2024, 9:01 AM
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Heisman Winner [135616]
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DON'T YOU TRY AND TELL ME WHAT I'M TELLING YOU THAT YOU'RE TELLING ME.***
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:06 AM
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All-In [34598]
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Hall of Famer [24108]
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Re: So, if I understand what you're trying to say here...
Mar 28, 2024, 2:04 PM
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I can't believe they turned the Longhorn into a spaceship.
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Lot o points [163012]
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Pensions are not based on younger people paying for your retirement.
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:00 AM
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They are actuarily calculated amounts and have to be funded while you are working. So, based on your salary, a pension has a fixed payout, which can either be based on a certain number of years, or based on your life expectancy which means you get less - but if you die early, tough luck, if you live longer, good for you.
Pensions are gone because they are expensive and when interest rates change, funding is required to make up any difference that the actuary determines is needed to keep the projected payouts.
So these are Defined Benefit Plans and are indeed rare now. Only small companies with highly paid employees (say like a consulting firm where three owners are the only employees) do these things now other than labor union negotiated stuff.
What most companies have are Defined Contribution Plans - they put away a certain amount (like a 401k match) and there is no guarantee what will be there when you retire, but the contribution itself is done each year - most can be changed based on profits sharing plan arrangements.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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They are not feesible or fundable over the long haul. Never were.
Mar 28, 2024, 9:13 AM
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But they were sold to generations of Americans as a promise. The people who run pensions know there's power in the size and money flowing in that can be leveraged in the markets, and over time, you come out a winner.
Pensions were the largest investors in mortgage backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis. Do you feel comfortable, looking back, knowing your retirement depends on the ability of other people to satisfy crap (should be illegal) mortgages they could never afford? I hope not.
And yes, the investments are leveraged on the assumption of new/steady income from current workers, just as your mortgage performs as an investment over time under the assumption you pay your mortgage.
I understand the sales pitch though. I also understood the sales pitch in 2003 when I was offered a $400K mortgage on less than $50K household income, that was interest only for the first 5 years. I understood the sales pitch, and rejected it not because it didn't sound awesome, but because I knew what would happen in time. Heck, my best friend from high school tried to sell me that mortgage. He would have gotten a much higher commission on it, because, again, the sales pitch was great, that HE got, and that HE GAVE. I don't hold it against him. He ended up losing his job over it. I could have lost a house over it.
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CU Medallion [60234]
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weren't pensions originally used to keep people as a loyalty incentive?
Mar 28, 2024, 9:17 AM
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people job-hop so much now that staying the 5 or so years to get vested is too much of a challenge, much less staying 20-25 years to amass a pension that is livable number.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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Yep. It worked when you worked at one of the 2 or 3 big factories in town
Mar 28, 2024, 9:31 AM
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for most of your life, just like your daddy did.
But companies found out that people are easily replaceable, and will replace their work force at the hint of money tightening. Internet job hiring made that even easier.
It used to be if you had several jobs in a 5 or 10 year period, you were considered a "job hopper" and looked down upon like you were consistently unsatisfied or something was wrong with you.
Now, if you have only 1 job over a 5 or 10 year (or longer) period, your skills are considered outdated and that's looked down upon by many hiring managers. And "job hopping" is the only way to effectively keep your salary competitive.
Hiring someone for a job is a completely broken process now thanks to the internet, but that's a whole different subject.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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Many companies still have incentives. Any benefit where the employer has to
Mar 28, 2024, 9:48 AM
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contribute, they can use that as leverage to promote longevity. You still see it with 401K matching and health benefits. Stay 5 years, and they will match a higher amount in your 401K savings, or you will qualify for a better health plan.
This is a double-edged sword though for employees and employers. What employers end up with are employees who are not happy, but stay with the company to get those added benefits, and THAT shows in their bottom line eventually. Employees end up staying longer at a company they don't like.
My wife is a job hopper. She makes more money than I do as a result of that. Most employees today would rather hop from job to job over 20 years increasing their salaries 4-5 fold, than work at the same company for 20 years and MAYBE double their pay with some added benefits along the way. The worst company my wife has worked for (she's up to close to 10 now) was IBM. They have a very old-school culture that rewards longevity, at the expense of being agile and attracting the best and brightest. IBM lost all of their contracts over time (why wife left) because they didn't cater to the job hoppers that are the best people at the job in her field.
Job-hopping pays more today, and rewards more today, than the longevity practices of decades past.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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I had a discussion with an old time IBM dude once
Mar 28, 2024, 10:02 AM
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he was adamant that companies still valued employee loyalty
I laughed.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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IBM Watson, I think that's what they called it.
Mar 28, 2024, 10:27 AM
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Great idea, cutting edge, and IBM needed cutting edge employees to make it work. Basically IBM wanted to corner the healthcare data market, and Watson was their plan to do it. Problem: The best of the best when it comes to healthcare data, are job hoppers. So IBM threw around a ton of money, got the job hoppers to hop aboard the IBM corporate train, and well, it derailed. Catering to the best and brightest, in this field, was something their corporate structure was not up to task at doing. Everyone among the best and brightest they brought in, were unhappy. Leadership was strict, unyielding, inflexible, and they suffered constantly in that environment. It showed in their contracts they had, they lost the contracts, and everyone left.
IBM Watson is no more.
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Hall of Famer [24108]
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Lot o points [163012]
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Should have not posted
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Mar 28, 2024, 5:04 PM
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it ain't worth the time.
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CU Medallion [60234]
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this is a crazy idea and I don't know how it could be done but......
Mar 28, 2024, 9:11 AM
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the way the gov't just blows through money maybe it isn't as crazy as it should be. If they can do college loan forgiveness and all these other programs, they should be able to finagle this.
When a child is born (legit birth from an American taxpaying female), the Fed govt, as a part of Social Security, deposits $50,000 in that childs name in an account bearing 5% interest. This account is untouchable by this child's parents or the child until he/she reaches the age of 65.
That $50K at 5% annual interest is worth $1,191,995.03 in 65 years (actually hits $1M at 62). When person turns 65 (or 62 or whatever number), that person gets access to the account and becomes a millionaire to live out the remainder of his life.
https://www.calculator.net/interest-calculator.html?cstartingprinciple=50%2C000&cannualaddition=0&cmonthlyaddition=0&cadditionat1=beginning&cinterestrate=5&ccompound=annually&cyears=65&cmonths=0&ctaxtrate=0&cinflationrate=3&printit=0&x=Calculate#interestresults
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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I think most know the fix to this, but not many want to talk about it
Mar 28, 2024, 9:21 AM
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at least in the US.
At some point, health insurance will have to be covered by our government and not our employer.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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I'm all for that...BUT FOR......
Mar 28, 2024, 9:57 AM
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the 16th Amendment. That clause in our Constitution SINKS single-payer healthcare.
What would be best, won't happen, and can't technically.
We need for every American to have the option (right) to healthcare. It is paid for by the government, and is a BASELINE healthcare system. You get decent medical care, a doctor, surgeries paid for, etc. This system WILL BE INHERENTLY worse than what we have. And that's fine. People will still have universal access to healthcare, and doctors, nurses, hospitals, etc. would be paid by the government. And while everyone fears the decrease in quality of a universal healthcare system, it weeds out all non-payers, which is KEY. Those non-payers end up with better medical care with government healthcare than if they didn't have it.
If this happens, there will be a huge demand for PRIVATE healthcare, private doctors, hospitals, AND INSURANCE. A majority of Americans would now be able to afford BETTER CARE than the government hospitals, and insurance would be far cheaper as well.
The net effect of this unequal system would be (overall) better quality of healthcare for everyone, poor and rich and everyone in between. But this is America, and everything has to be equal, at the expense of everything, which......is why we can't have nice things.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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I'm not certain how that is affected by the 16th
Mar 28, 2024, 10:04 AM
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but eventually, it's going to happen. The populace will demand it, whether that requires an amendment change or not.
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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Equal Protection Clause (sorry....14th amendment)
Mar 28, 2024, 10:20 AM
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If the government takes over healthcare, like all healthcare, single-payer/universal whatever, they MUST offer equal healthcare to all. If private healthcare springs up, that's cheaper, and better, they can not allow that as that creates inequality.
So either the government spends more to match private healthcare, or they penalize private healthcare and insurance to force equality.
Again, this assumes you make healthcare a right, and universal.
Even though separate systems would provide the best overall benefit, that can't be allowed to happen because equality and all.
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All-TigerNet [12165]
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Also, imo a wrench in all of this is
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Mar 28, 2024, 10:56 AM
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what is basic healthcare?
ok, if you get sick, you go to doc, easy
teen with acne? cosmetic but can affect psychologically, but is that basic health care? out of pocket, gov't covers, what?
sore hip for a 60 year old, doesn't limit mobility, but sure is stiff in AM and maybe limits hobbies like hiking etc. Basic?
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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I think its gonna have to be all healthcare
Mar 28, 2024, 12:03 PM
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like most other developed countries.
Biggest cause of bankruptcy is healthcare costs.
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110%er [7004]
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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Insurance is run and managed by the states....bruh.......
Mar 28, 2024, 12:47 PM
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No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
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110%er [7004]
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Ok. And how does any of that support your point?
Mar 28, 2024, 12:51 PM
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I apologize that my initial reply was dick-ish.
But you are incorrect that the EPC prevents the government from making any distinctions among citizens or promoting/implementing policies that "create inequality."
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All-In [49057]
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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All-In [49057]
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I'm not going back to my conlaw textbook or anything, but...
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Mar 28, 2024, 12:55 PM
[ in reply to Equal Protection Clause (sorry....14th amendment) ] |
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if government provides every single person with equal access to healthcare, and people with money establish a private system for their own benefit, how is that private action unconstitutional?
If it is, then why aren't private schools unconstitutional?
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All-In [49057]
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It just occurred to me it already exists, right?
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Mar 28, 2024, 1:07 PM
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Medicare. Everyone has access to Medicare after a certain age.
Rich people also have medicare, but they pay for supplements that cover gaps in medicare.
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110%er [7004]
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Yes. The Equal Protection Clause isn't in the top five problems with what he is
Mar 28, 2024, 1:22 PM
[ in reply to I'm not going back to my conlaw textbook or anything, but... ] |
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proposing. It's unclear how or why Congress could ban private insurance. Or how allowing private insurance would somehow be unequal protection.
The government also distinguishes between rich and poor people all the time (See income tax brackets, means testing gov. benefits, etc.). So long as it passes rational basis review, income-based distinctions don't violate the EPC.
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Hall of Famer [22948]
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Re: I'm all for that...BUT FOR......
Mar 28, 2024, 2:05 PM
[ in reply to I'm all for that...BUT FOR...... ] |
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Politicians would get involved and start subsidizing the cost of Private Insurance at the expenses of the Public option. Check out the school voucher debate as a recent example.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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Since there's an ugly little thing called ageism that says you're obsolete
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:18 AM
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after ~50 years old..whether you are or not. And if you work for someone else, your perceived value to a company doesn't go up when you hit 50 and above...it goes down. The older you get the more of a liability you are to them.
Point here is that staying employed by someone else becomes increasingly more difficult, especially at the same or greater pay rate--as you pass that magic 50 mark. So if you've been saving your retirement your whole life and now you're saying you'll never get to use that money because you'll be too sick to go to Europe or whatever, well..That seems like a problem.
And bengaline says "not so fast".
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Heisman Winner [119738]
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Greece last summer; Italy this summer
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Mar 28, 2024, 10:20 AM
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Pushing 70, yet I walked the golf course yesterday carrying my bag. Some of yall would wish you had my health 
Getting my 2 pensions and your SS$; dont have to touch my portfolio till the gubmint makes me!
Ineligible user
Thank you!
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All-In [27149]
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If you need a rentboy for some of your trips.
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Mar 28, 2024, 10:36 AM
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holla.
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CU Medallion [60043]
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All-In [27149]
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idk. my in-laws retired to a Del Webb community and seem to be doing pretty
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:56 AM
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aight playing lots of golf, doin' pot, and swinging.
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All-In [27149]
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Re: idk. my in-laws retired to a Del Webb community and seem to be doing pretty
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:56 AM
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pottery*
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All-In [27149]
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Re: idk. my in-laws retired to a Del Webb community and seem to be doing pretty
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Mar 28, 2024, 9:57 AM
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*from their back patio swing.
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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we should eradicate social security
Mar 28, 2024, 11:31 AM
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100%.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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Not before I get paid for a lifetime of putting into it***
Mar 28, 2024, 12:03 PM
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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eh - you old farts created this mess
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Mar 28, 2024, 12:05 PM
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time you snuggle up in this bed and get comfy too bruh
I'd happily forego my ~11 years of SS payments if I didn't have to give them another dime.
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Oculus Spirit [81078]
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Hey nobody ever ASKED me if I wanted to contribute to OASDI
Mar 28, 2024, 1:02 PM
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They just took it. I'm not quite ready to just toss away a lifetime of 6.2% of my earnings.
You'd be a fool to do that too.
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All-In [43774]
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Hall of Famer [22948]
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Re: BlackRock CEO spills the beans, sort of.
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Mar 28, 2024, 1:53 PM
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Each of those items worked great for the boomers that created them. Just like a pyramid scheme, you have to get in early.
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Starter [376]
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Re: BlackRock CEO spills the beans, sort of.
Mar 28, 2024, 2:10 PM
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Social Security is the largest white elephant in Congress that nobody wants to talk about. After all, you can't get elected talking about the gloom and doom. Social Security is the second largest scam played on the American people in history. The first being the tax refund (20% of the country believes that they don't pay any taxes because they get a refund every year).
So here are some inconvenient truths. When it was instituted, there was somewhere around 16 people "contributing" to the system for every 1 person drawing it out. Now it's somewhere around 2-3. Boomers are retiring at the rate of about 5,000 people every day. heard that on NPR about 10 years ago. Every economist I've heard on this subject has said basically the same thing. If you have been retired for 3 years, you have drawn out everything you ever put in and it takes working people to make sure that check you get is solvent. So where does that put us today? I'll be 64 this year. I did the math on what my MONTHLY SS check would be. I've come to the harsh realization that I'll be working until I'm dead.
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Oculus Spirit [75725]
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Look man, I'm going to get a 6 in front of my age, quit working,
Mar 28, 2024, 5:07 PM
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go have a lot of fun, then go to McDonalds and eat Krispy Kreme quarter pounders every day until my heart explodes. None of that long term care for me.
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Oculus Spirit [75725]
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Boy this thread here went all kinds of ways.
Mar 28, 2024, 5:49 PM
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I don't know how folks ever thought pensions would work. I guess somehow it made sense before maintenance meds made folks live longer.
I am for some sort of forced savings plan for people. If we don't have that, people worse off than me become my problem as we age. Social Security is broken for sure and was really a way for rich old ladies to take money from poor folks. I don't even care if that money grows a lot, just hide it from folks for 50 years then disburse.
Companies need to get back to having clear career paths for people. Nowhere I've ever worked has had this. Need a lot more of the ~insert job title~ level 1, 2, 3, etc and make it clear what needs to happen to get there and have real raises cooked in. They also need to, on top of a good salary, give a bigger chunk of profit sharing towards the bottom of the org chart. Break open the books and show those types how busting their tail and needing less staff helps their pocket.
I've got a bunch more, but it gets too close to needing to be on the other board.
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CU Medallion [60043]
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Stopped reading at pensions are gone
Mar 28, 2024, 6:00 PM
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cause that is very fake news
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Oculus Spirit [75725]
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You are going to need to explain yourself here bud.
Mar 28, 2024, 6:04 PM
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I know you are all unioned up now and are possibly in the union capitol of the universe, but nobody I know our age in the private sector has a pension.
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50
