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Replies: 22
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All-In [48078]
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Joined: 5/16/04
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Question for my fellow gamblers who bet on us...
Jan 5, 2016, 2:00 PM
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I bet 200 on us at 22-1 before the season. Many of you got us at 25-1. Anyway, there is the question of whether we should hedge our bets. Looking at it I don't see how we can. The line is 7. If you bet on Bama you may lose both bets. It seems to me it's an all or nothing deal. What do you think?
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Freshman [2]
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Re: Question for my fellow gamblers who bet on us...
Jan 5, 2016, 2:13 PM
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To truly hedge your bet, you would take Bama -270 ML. That way you are guaranteed something. I might but 540 to get your bet back, but I'd let it roll. It will feel sweeter.
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All-In [48078]
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True...
Jan 5, 2016, 2:27 PM
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And that money line is so extreme, that for 200 dollars who cares? The line is too extreme to hedge imo. It's all or nothing.
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Orange Blooded [3220]
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Hold firm, it will be a great ending to this ride***
Jan 5, 2016, 2:17 PM
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null [1]
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Re: Question for my fellow gamblers who bet on us...
Jan 5, 2016, 2:17 PM
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You could take Alabama on a money line bet. The money line is something like Bama -270 (so you would have to bet $270 to win $100, and it is a straight up bet no points).
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110%er [7219]
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Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: Question for my fellow gamblers who bet on us...
Jan 5, 2016, 2:21 PM
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I am betting Clemson on the Moneyline at +250. That seems like great odds to me. Clemson opened at +180.
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MVP [522]
TigerPulse: 94%
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Joined: 9/29/10
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I say All In!
Jan 5, 2016, 2:26 PM
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I'm letting it ride.
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CU Guru [1052]
TigerPulse: 89%
Posts: 1977
Joined: 7/8/13
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Put another $200-Clemson on the moneyline
Jan 5, 2016, 2:36 PM
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And then you will be All In!
Are you really concerned about a futures bet you made 8 months ago? I got us at 24:1 in March and granted it looks good now, but I basically wrote it off right when I put the $$ down in Vegas. If you have been laying points with the Tigers, you have done very well this year. However this is no game to take the points! Clemson Wins!!
Double down, sir.
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All-In [48078]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I just did actually.**
Jan 5, 2016, 2:38 PM
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nm
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CU Guru [1052]
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Very nice! +1
Jan 5, 2016, 2:42 PM
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I also REALLY like Seattle -5.5 for big $$!
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All-In [48078]
TigerPulse: 100%
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I am not hedging. Just wondering what you would do.**
Jan 5, 2016, 2:37 PM
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nm
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Orange Blooded [3632]
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Money Line
Jan 5, 2016, 2:39 PM
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That is the only way as you are betting on Alabama to win straight up, but have to put up more to win less. Not as much monetary value to hedge as it is emotional value to hedge.
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All-In [40936]
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I would. Drop $540 on bama and you either break even or
Jan 5, 2016, 2:43 PM
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you still come up almost 4 grand ahead plus your $200
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Hall of Famer [22948]
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Let it ride for $200 bet. Hedge Bama moneyline if $2k bet***
Jan 5, 2016, 4:15 PM
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CU Guru [1806]
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can you parlay your bet into this game? You could really do
Jan 5, 2016, 4:18 PM
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some multiplication of that initial $200 if that is the case.
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Commissioner [990]
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I hedged before the initial playoff matchups:
Jan 5, 2016, 4:19 PM
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All-In [40936]
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explain the bet?
Jan 5, 2016, 6:44 PM
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I must be missing something
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Trainer [46]
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Re: explain the bet?
Jan 5, 2016, 6:47 PM
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He gets 1,850 if Bama wins. He gets 3,995 if Clemson wins.
It's not so much of a hedge as much as it is he correctly predicted the Bama-Clemson matchup and will make money regardless of the winner.
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All-In [40936]
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I see now he made the bets before the playoff games***
Jan 5, 2016, 7:15 PM
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Commissioner [990]
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Re: explain the bet?
Jan 5, 2016, 8:46 PM
[ in reply to Re: explain the bet? ] |
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Correct, plus $500 back for the winning bet in addition to those amounts you referenced.
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Orange Blooded [4356]
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I went in for $100 at 23-1 back in early April. I've gone
Jan 5, 2016, 5:10 PM
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through the hedging scenarios, and the money line bet is the only assured offset, but you really limit your upside, as others above have stated.
Assuming a 270 money line, the only bet that I thought about making would be $1,300 on Bama to pay $480. In that scenario, I either clear $900 if Clemson wins ($2,300-$100-$1,300) or $380 if Bama wins ($480-$100). In the end, I didn't want to limit my upside that severely on an initial $100 bet. If I could have found a way to lock in a $G, I would have probably done it, but I couldn't find it.
I'm in the "let it ride" camp.
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Commissioner [990]
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Re: I went in for $100 at 23-1 back in early April. I've gone
Jan 5, 2016, 5:41 PM
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Only way to really make money by betting Bama (other than something like betting on them back in early October when they were at about +950 to win it all) was to bet prop bets before the championship game if you thought Clemson was going to make it to the big game.
I got Bama over Clemson at +363 (shoulda bet it when it was at +380 for awhile).
I got Clemson over Bama at +791 (shoulda bet it when it was over +800).
Of course, if Boomer Sooner won then I was f'ed, but ESPN did me a solid with hyping Oklahoma when it was clear who had the advantage in the trenches (oh yeah, and QB).
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Orange Blooded [4356]
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Makes sense... I believe there is conference bias in the
Jan 5, 2016, 6:40 PM
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the betting lines that it looks like you were smart to exploit. You could argue that cuts both ways though, and is somewhat offset on your Bama bet.
Also, I didn't really start looking until after we made the CFP Final... you were smart to get ahead of it.
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