Replies: 23
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Varsity [231]
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betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:09 PM
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some here have questions about the line changes.
Firat round: LSU -13.5 v OU Clem - 2 v OSU
Before the last games the odds to win Natty were:
LSU.......7/5 Clem......2/1 OSU.......3/1 OU........12/1
Projections for points line before the first playoff round: LSU -4.5 v OSU LSU -3.5 v Clem
After the first round LSU RB CEH, one of the only two LSU players that are irreplaceable on this roster, had been seen healthy as was the entire team.
Line opened LSU -6 v Clem, soon dropped to -5.5, -210, +180 and has remained stable.
Thus the LSU destruction over OU, the Clem struggle with OSU and the confirmed health of LSU might have moved the line 2 pts.
Some folks believe these numbers are due to the ignorant public reacting to news, talking heads and popular teams/conferences.
Know that there are brilliant number crunchers out there with megabucks. If those numbers get out of line they will bet a ton. Bookies would go broke with bad numbers.
But Guido keeps building casinos.
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If you are convinced Clem will win, betting 100 with your bookie could get you back 280 = win you 180.
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Hall of Famer [22948]
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110%er [5576]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:15 PM
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I'm still not scared.
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All-In [27366]
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Varsity [231]
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Re: You need to let ESPN know about this
Jan 2, 2020, 5:45 PM
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Mickey don't take bets, Mickey sells ads.
Guido takes bets.
Call Mickey and ask him how much he will take at those odds.
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Oculus Spirit [77013]
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Re: You need to let ESPN know about this
Jan 2, 2020, 9:13 PM
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Mickey gave Guido a corn dog. The rest is history.
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Legend [16330]
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there is a reason wwe struggled agaist osu
Jan 2, 2020, 5:24 PM
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its because they have a legit complete team..unlike sister nancys school of the blind oklahoma
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CU Medallion [57161]
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Re: there is a reason wwe struggled agaist osu
Jan 2, 2020, 5:28 PM
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The Fiesta Bowl was the de facto National Championship Game and everyone knows it.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:37 PM
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I bet on us to score over 31 points. Seems like a good bet to me.
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Orange Blooded [2371]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 9:42 PM
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I hope you win your bet... if you do, Tigers will repeat as National Champions.
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Orange Blooded [2043]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:42 PM
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No one here needs an education from you .... If they care about betting - they already know
If they don’t - then they certainly don’t care about your nonsense
Did you know Bama was favored by 5.5 against Clemson in last years CFP?
Did you know that Clemson is 10-1 ATS in our last 11 bowl games?
The spread doesn’t guarantee an outcome or necessarily even predict an outcome..
It’s designed to keep money flowing in both directions ...
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All-In [48078]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:50 PM
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Also we have covered the spread the most times out of any team in the nation. We were tied for 2nd for a bit, but we ended up first. We covered a few more times in a row since we were 2nd. We covered 78.6% of the time. 11-3.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
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Legend [16330]
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also another stat
Jan 2, 2020, 5:51 PM
[ in reply to Re: betting lines & changes ] |
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we were the odds on underdog in our other three national title game appearances we are 2-1 in those games.
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Orange Blooded [2928]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:49 PM
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According to this and everything I've seen, Clemson was projected to be favored before the semifinals by -1.5 or so. https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/lsu-clemson-odds-spread-line-2020-national-championship-game
After the LSU semifinal game, it switched to -3.5 in favor of LSU. Seems like a huge overreaction to the OU blowout, but people are betting it so I guess Vegas was right in setting it where they did.
It supposedly opened at -3.5 or -4.5 most places, but quickly jumped to -5.5 and held until today where I've started seeing it at -6 for LSU.
I'm surprised it's gotten this high and don't see it going much higher. I think at 7 the public and the sharps would be heavy on Clemson. I would expect it to end up around 5 by gametime when the late big bets from the sharps come in, but we shall see.
Just my opinions...
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Orange Blooded [2763]
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Vegas is all about making money. If you bet $100 on
Jan 2, 2020, 5:52 PM
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a team and win, you win $100. If you lose, you lose $110. The $10 is called “the juice.” That’s where they make their money. Therefore, Vegas wants to have even bets on both sides. So, for example, the line opens up at Team A -2 vs Tram B, and all of a sudden big money comes in for Team A, they give Team B another 1/2 point hoping more people will bet on them, therefore evening out the bets. If enough money doesn’t come in for Team B, they will give them another 1/2 point. This will go on up until game time.
I have learned two things over the years. One, the opening line is the best time to decide on who to bet on. However, the negative side is you can make an early bet and things can change during the week...injuries, suspensions, etc. Two, don’t bet real money. I did at one time and never won. Since then, for ten years I created an EXcel spreadsheet and would bet $100 on ten games each week. I won money two of the ten years.
Final note. The most money Vegas has ever lost on a college football game was when we beat Alabama in 2016.
Go Tigers!
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Legend [16733]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 5:55 PM
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Good info
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110%er [7219]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 6:59 PM
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Reading what you post is like listening to Charlie Brown’s teacher.
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Orange Blooded [2890]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 7:30 PM
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Has Charlie Brown’s teacher ever made a factual error?
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Orange Blooded [2890]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 7:30 PM
[ in reply to Re: betting lines & changes ] |
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Has Charlie Brown’s teacher ever made a factual error?
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110%er [7169]
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Ol Psychicbjlessteethplease still going at it I see.
Jan 2, 2020, 7:23 PM
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Gawna suck to be you and LSU come January 13. Clemson don't care about the odds. As I keep telling you. The Natty was played last Saturday in the Fiesta bowl. LSU just the first cupcake to fall to Clemson in the year 2020. Ending the 2019 season as National Champions once again!
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All-TigerNet [10935]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 7:33 PM
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You really came here to give a betting lesson? I don't think we need your help. Did you bet your trailer?
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Legend [17615]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 8:57 PM
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+1. Can't argue with any of that. Sounds like easy money for Clemson Tiger fans.
And wait for the sharks to come in at game time with the big Clemson bets. There will be a lot of good LSU folks that wonder what the #### happened when that smoke and drink starts wearing off in the mid-4th qtr. A lot of good Bama folks lost their behinds last year. In fact, Bama is 1-3 in the playoffs vs. Clemson ATS. Bur good luck old friend!
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Commissioner [977]
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Re: betting lines & changes
Jan 2, 2020, 9:21 PM
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wasn't Bama favored by -6 last year? We covered if I remember correctly
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All-In [38429]
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Won't matter what the betting is ...
Jan 2, 2020, 9:22 PM
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Clemson by 10 . Probably something like 38-28
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