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Hall of Famer [22326]
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My biggest concern with NIL.
Apr 5, 2022, 6:18 PM
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No one knows how it is all going to end up, certainly not me. So, I am not predicting this will happen. Just saying that as of today, it is my biggest concern.
Schools with great coaches, but not with the deep pockets needed to recruit the top 100 players, will recruit kids and then develop them into quality college players. But, then, those players will enter the portal and go to schools that offer them a wagon load of NIL money.
So, the NCAA will be split, unofficially, into the "major league" and the "minor leagues." The minor league coaches will prepare the kids and as soon as they are ready they will get called up to the major league.
I have said for years that the NCAA has eagerly embraced being the minor leagues for the NFL and NBA. I fear that the NCAA will soon have it's own minor leagues and their own major league. It will happen in hoops, but even more so in football.
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All-TigerNet [10461]
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Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 5, 2022, 6:29 PM
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Hall of Famer [22326]
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Re: Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 5, 2022, 7:49 PM
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But, it won't be like what we now have with FCS, FBS, Div 2 and Div 3.
Today, guys who aren't good enough to play at FBS transfer down.
My fear is, with the transfer portal you will see kids being developed by coaches at the FBS "minor league" and being called up to the FBS major league.
I can see some schools (Bama, Ohio State, Texas, etc.) recruiting 10 guys who are in the ESPN to 100 and then getting 12 guys from the transfer portal from schools who can't financially complete with the NIL money of those schools but have developed their players in 2 or three years only to see them leave for greener (money)pastures.
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110%er [7179]
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Re: Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 5, 2022, 8:12 PM
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But, it won't be like what we now have with FCS, FBS, Div 2 and Div 3.
Today, guys who aren't good enough to play at FBS transfer down.
My fear is, with the transfer portal you will see kids being developed by coaches at the FBS "minor league" and being called up to the FBS major league.
I can see some schools (Bama, Ohio State, Texas, etc.) recruiting 10 guys who are in the ESPN to 100 and then getting 12 guys from the transfer portal from schools who can't financially complete with the NIL money of those schools but have developed their players in 2 or three years only to see them leave for greener (money)pastures.
BFSU - I am picking up what you are laying down!
Couple things:
1. The moment this is apparent the schools who would in your scenario be the minor league schools will likely challenge(and win) the language of the current transfer portal language. To me you would maybe even have to come up with some language that would be CFB's version of "the franchise tag"!
If a player like, Mike Jones Jr, for example, left Clemson for LS-who was going to be a heavily depended on starter the NCAA must give Clemson some allowances not normally afforded. Something like extra time for a small group of players to make up the difference of the departing player. Or something that somehow; acknowledges the fact the school that's developed the player will be hurt by the departure. And, the NCAA in the spirit of competition, doesn't just sit on their collective hands and watch it happen without trying to "make it right"!
Especially because in many cases that school treated the kid well and did nothing wrong. Franchise tags is how they handle it in the NFL. Well, that and having players that are "Restricted Free Agents" which means, "you can sign them but it's going to cost you"!
In short, I agree that's a real possibility and a scary thought! What's to stop it?
2. If coaches leave a program to include the kid's position coach - it should be a free pass. If not, you would have to give the school that is being left behind some feedback as to why you are departing. Kind of like a "post-employment assessment" of the school/program! It should include reasons for leaving including any NIL deals, promises, etc. It should include a declaration that the kid has "not been contacted by someone from another school's football program or who has vested interested in another school's program"!
3. The reason that would be key is: "the NCAA or lawmakers or somebody needs to at least have some rules governing "tampering" with other schools players. Ask any realist in the room BretFSU - "what's stopping some big booster from another school from getting word to one of my favorite schools players to have them throw the game"? They can now pay them and last I heard they don't have to declare "what the money is for"! It's just money in their account for being a "Good Athlete"! It would be cheaper than paying off your own school; if you gave a few key playmakers on the opposing team a Nice Big Bag of money to blow a big game! Tampering needs to be checked in a huge way more than anything!
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110%er [7179]
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Re: Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 5, 2022, 7:50 PM
[ in reply to Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.*** ] |
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And, if that happened, I wouldn't be opposed to it.
I feel like the Group of 5 should have their own National Champion in CFB.
Sorry, not sorry!
The $$$$$$$$$ those schools spend is very real! Unlike their chances of getting a realistic shot of a National Title unless all the dominos fall in your favor. Cincinnati got lucky that Clemson wasn't undefeated or another P5 school wasn't looking strong: "otherwise they don't make history"!
Throw around a bunch of oil and big booster club money and the separation in resources gets even wider! It's the same reason in H.S. there are different classifications! In theory, the school with the most resources has an advantage.
NIL money is still really in its infancy stage. I can still see some "team dysfunction" popping up around the country because of it. For example, a star WR who is incentivized to catch "X-number of passes a game" might be force-fed even when another teammate is wide open. The other play was the right football move but due to incentives - the force happened so that player can make a number. That then leads to groaning and mumbling that teammates are out for themselves and not the team and it boils out of control from that point.
Can't put it past boosters whose knowledge of the sport is "just the final score and some Sports Center highlights"! They would likely continue throwing money at the problem; because they don't understand the "team dynamic"!
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Hall of Famer [22326]
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Re: Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 5, 2022, 10:44 PM
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HillRock, here is my concern.
I don't think the "major league" will be nearly as large as the Power 5. I can it it becoming about 15 to 20 schools. I can see it consisting of a few teams from different Power 5 conferences. Just as an example, I could see the following schools being in the "major league" (I don't think they will break away from their own conference, but each would stay in its own conference and collectively they would be the cream of whichever conference they would be in.):
Bama, aTm, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Southern Cal
Then there may be another 10 or so schools who could muster up enough NIL money to compete with those schools for the same players.
What if Clemson couldn't come up with enough money to keep up? How would you like it if every December 15 or 20 starters (juniors and sophomores) entered the portal and signed with one of the above schools? Dabo and his staff would have been the coaches who took those kids out of HS and developed them into high quality football players, but the kid leaves and heads to a school that will offer him a lot more money than Clemson can. Clemson would become a "feeder school" for the elite.
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110%er [7179]
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Re: Two divisions ultimately emerging is a real possibility IMO.***
Apr 6, 2022, 8:25 PM
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HillRock, here is my concern.
I don't think the "major league" will be nearly as large as the Power 5. I can it it becoming about 15 to 20 schools. I can see it consisting of a few teams from different Power 5 conferences. Just as an example, I could see the following schools being in the "major league" (I don't think they will break away from their own conference, but each would stay in its own conference and collectively they would be the cream of whichever conference they would be in.):
Bama, aTm, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Southern Cal
Then there may be another 10 or so schools who could muster up enough NIL money to compete with those schools for the same players.
What if Clemson couldn't come up with enough money to keep up? How would you like it if every December 15 or 20 starters (juniors and sophomores) entered the portal and signed with one of the above schools? Dabo and his staff would have been the coaches who took those kids out of HS and developed them into high quality football players, but the kid leaves and heads to a school that will offer him a lot more money than Clemson can. Clemson would become a "feeder school" for the elite.
BretFSU - I'm tracking you 100%
To answer the question: "I wouldn't like it a bit"! They say(especially Jimbo) this type of stuff has always gone on. If you listen to the people who had the "green handshakes" this is nothing new. It's just out in the open now!
This is why the "little ole Clemson" caught fire the way it did. Because the "elites" of CFB with the deep pockets and large alumni bases "couldn't compete" consistently unless your name was Alabama for a stretch with L.O.Clemson!
Did they have to hide it more? Sure.
Will it change the game even if it was going on back in the day? Yes.
But, a school can still only have 85 on scholarship at a time, right? Now, if you start getting 4 and 5 star 2nd and 3rd year on-campus guys who are due to start transferring as "preferred walk-ons" I think Houston we have a problem.
TBH - we have a problem now! I still think we will start hearing about some split locker rooms and "bad football plays" because of NIL. 18-24-year-olds with all they have going on and adults in their ear who may not know the game will factor in some of these schools' locker rooms and it "will cost them"!
To be honest with you Bret - if kids were leaving and had to sit out a year - I wouldn't be so anxious about it. And, if they weren't allowed to just pick up and leave w/o penalty at any time, same thing! But, players leaving anytime they want: should be at the end of the current schools season and extends to the begining of March! This way whoever is on the roster can be prepared like they are the likely starter! Maybe, it gives the Tfrom school a chance to offer late commits or JC players or TP players!
The Transfer Portal in my opinion is hurting this whole thing more than NIL is. I get the legal reason you shouldn't make money off someone else's NIL w/o compensating them: "but the transfer rules" that have accompanied it is the bigger culprit in my opinion.
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All-American [557]
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"Stepping stone" hypothesis/forecast unfortunate but likely outcome****
Apr 5, 2022, 8:21 PM
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110%er [7179]
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Unless It's
Apr 5, 2022, 8:37 PM
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If I don't have at least some slight belief that the playing field is even; "I think it will turn me off" in terms of watching CFB.
Not until two "equally yoked" teams are on the playing field with the same capabilities! It would be like watching Clemson beat up on Charleston Southern, Citadel, Mars Hill, Chowan or VMI every week! No sport in that. It's fine for a tune-up game and an opportunity to let the young guys get some time on the field. But, not all year!
Two divisions would be the only way it would be remotely interesting!
I honestly don't like the High School showcase games when they have a school like IMG or St. Francis Academy going against some public school.
Public school no matter how good is just kids in a restricted area. Some of these private schools are getting kids from all over the states they are in or in some cases from all over the country(IMG, St. Jon Bosco, Bishop Gormon). It's an unfair advantage and is very unsporty - much like shooting fish in a barrel.
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Orange Blooded [4786]
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Re: My biggest concern with NIL.
Apr 5, 2022, 10:48 PM
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Would anyone watch the NFL if Dallas could spend 500 million a year on its roster while Jacksonville could only afford to spend 100 million? That's basically where we are at right now in college football.
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110%er [7179]
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Re: My biggest concern with NIL.
Apr 6, 2022, 8:33 PM
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Would anyone watch the NFL if Dallas could spend 500 million a year on its roster while Jacksonville could only afford to spend 100 million? That's basically where we are at right now in college football.
Look at the Yankees in baseball who in 2019 had a payroll of 189 million in 2022 My Atlanta Braves payroll is 143 million. Coming off a World Series!
More money does stack the deck in favor of a win!
But, it does not guarantee it!
And to answer your question; it wouldn't likely be competitive in football if the best players could go to just one team. The same thing I say about private schools that play public schools and "silly people" get all enamored about how dominant they were over the public school. Well, duh! They can recruit they don't have to take "whoever they got" to fill certain roles!
Or what if an all-star team was playing a bunch of just regular dudes? Who'd think that was "sport"! Only people who know they can't do it w/o a stacked deck, that's all!
In short, great example and I agree!
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Legend [17612]
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College Football will have a Major & Minor League
Apr 5, 2022, 11:06 PM
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No doubt. They already do to some extent. Most of the ACC is satisfied to share Clemson's football earnings with little expectation of future reciprocity.
My question is what will happen when the kid who receives the NIL package cannot break into the starting lineup as a freshman or sophomore? Will his sponsors keep paying for no production or will these kids flock to the portal? And are the academics so dumbed down for the NIL kids that they can switch schools every year without impact?
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