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Orange Blooded [3742]
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Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 9:47 AM
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- UGA beat LSU in SEC Championship game: UGA in
- Winner of Mich/tOSU game and Big10 Championship game: Mich/tOSU in (if game is epic both might be in though)
- KSU beats TCU in Big12 Championship game (KSU basically lead TCU the whole game at TCU. Likely a different outcome in a neutral site game: No Big12 representative
- ND beats USC (seems likely if ND brings their A game): No PAC10 representative
- Clem beats a 11-1 UNC team in ACC Championship game
Committee legitimate options for 4 teams at the end of the year:
- SEC Champ UGA
- Big 10 Champ tOSU/Mich
- 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson
- 1-loss non-SEC Champ Tenn
- 1-loss non-Big10 Champ t/OSU/Mich loser
There's a better than decent chance we get one of the 4 slots out of these 5 options. Things may get dicey though if TCU wins out and the committee has to pick between 1-loss ACC Champ Clemson, 1-loss Tenn, and 1-loss Mich/tOSU.
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Orange Blooded [2987]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:00 AM
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Curious; who do you think are the 4 best teams in the country? If you only job was to set the lineup for the 4 best to play for the championship, regardless of any bias (good or bad) to any school, who would that be?
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Commissioner [923]
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UGA and OSU ..the rest will doesn't matter, these 2 will win***
Nov 14, 2022, 10:04 AM
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All-TigerNet [13514]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:11 AM
[ in reply to Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought ] |
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That is exactly the right way to think about it because the committee's #1 priority is to make sure they have the 4 best teams in the playoffs and not just conference champions. Conference championships really only come into play as a tiebreaker between 2 very close options. The way they are voting right now says they do not believe the ACC Champion is among the 4 best teams but a couple of upsets could change that dynamic. I still think it is a long shot but hoping for the best.
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Orange Blooded [3742]
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Most will believe the 4 best teams at the end of the year
Nov 14, 2022, 10:22 AM
[ in reply to Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought ] |
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based on the eye test and full year dominance are UGA, Tenn, tOSU, and Mich. The problem with having those 4 teams in though is UGA's already dominated Tenn and tOSU and Mich will play each other as well. That's a positive for us because in that scenario due to "match up fatigue", a 1-loss Conference Champion might actually carry some weight.
The nightmare scenario for us is if the tOSU/Mich is a nailbiter and TCU wins out. Tenn is loved by the committee. They may be in regardless. We need there to be distance between tOSU and Mich.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:04 AM
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Interesting thoughts! I just hope we get past Miami and SC first; we are just not very good this year. All those "correctible" things that Dabo has been mentioning all season (missed tackles for example) are just not getting corrected. Now if we start playing well and start drubbing our opponents then...........
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110%er [6519]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:06 AM
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I think Michigan beats OSU, Clemson & TCU win out, USC loses to Notre Dame and/or Pac12 North champ
1. UGA 13-0
2. Michigan 13-0
3. TCU 13-0
4. Clemson gets in with conference title at 12-1
If TCU loses
3. Clemson 12-1
4. Tenn 11-1 over OSU 11-1
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All-TigerNet [13514]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:14 AM
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I think it is going to be hard to jump over TN unless they lose. They will already be in the Top 4 after the MI-OSU game and I don't think their winning out would actually cause them to drop, even for the ACC Champion because I don't think the committee currently believes Clemson or UNC is better than TN.
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Varsity [242]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:18 AM
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I just don't think we are even competitive in a playoff game, regardless of who plays QB. I think best Clemson scenario is winning out and winning a non-CFP NY6 bowl.
I did previously think I'd enjoy watching a playoff game, but the thought of getting run out of the stadium by UGA or OH31-0 State is sickening.
We are better than last year, better than the average team, but not elite this year. You must be above average at every position to win a CFP game.
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All-TigerNet [13514]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:23 AM
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I go back and forth on it. I'm not sure we couldn't also get blown out in the Orange Bowl so if we are going to get blown out, I think I'd at least like it to be in the playoffs.
I also think that in playoff football anything can happen and sometimes a heavy underdog finds lightning in a bottle so I'd like to take my chances there.
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Orange Blooded [3141]
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CU Guru [1574]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 10:29 AM
[ in reply to Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought ] |
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Agreed. I live in Georgia and the last thing I want is for us to be blown out in a "Playoff Game" by "the dawgs." We simply aren't elite this year though it pains me to say it. But the only team I hate more than the "Yardbirds" is "the dawgs." Their fans are almost as obnoxious as the "bucknuts." In my opinion, Georgia will repeat as National Champions. I think they'll embarrass tOSU, and I can enjoy that. But I don't want either of those teams to have bragging rights over our Tigers. So I'm fine with the Sugar Bowl and lets get starting on next year. Go Tigers!
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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Again?
Nov 14, 2022, 10:21 AM
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Orange Blooded [3730]
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Clemson DID make it to the CFP playoffs…it was just that…
Nov 14, 2022, 10:24 AM
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…Clemson had the FIRST CFP playoff game in South Bend LAST week and LOST!
They are now playing for Miss Congeniality in the Orange Bowl in the ACCCG.
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Varsity [242]
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Re: Clemson DID make it to the CFP playoffs…it was just that…
Nov 14, 2022, 10:33 AM
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We'd lose that, too, because you just can't put lipstick on the pig that is our QB situation right now
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All-In [44050]
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I really don't see us being left out if we are 12-1
Nov 14, 2022, 10:45 AM
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with a conference championship.
I don't believe that the committee would put a one-loss team without a conference championship in ahead of us.
I also don't think we necessarily need TCU to lose. If they win out, plus Georgia (SEC champ) and Ohio State/Michigan (Big 10 champ), there is still one spot left. The only real competition for that spot in my opinion would be a one-loss USC (Pac 12 champ).
The chances of all five power 5 conferences having champions with 0-1 losses at the end of the season is very slim. Has that ever happened?
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Trainer [28]
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Re: I really don't see us being left out if we are 12-1
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Nov 14, 2022, 10:52 AM
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ND has 1 thing important on their resume. They are the only team that beat both UNC and us. UNC and CU both have same records and if you look at Costal vs Atlantic numbers they seem very similar. We argue Atlantic is better, but cross games this year could prove otherwise. I haven't seen that this year but feels like it's close.
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Orange Blooded [3742]
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If USC beats ND we won't get in over a 1-loss PAC12 Champ
Nov 14, 2022, 11:02 AM
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ND is already the de facto ACC Champ since they beat both Clem and UNC. They have to beat USC for us to have any edge over any PAC12 Champ with a 1 loss record.
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All-TigerNet [13514]
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Re: I really don't see us being left out if we are 12-1
Nov 14, 2022, 11:01 AM
[ in reply to I really don't see us being left out if we are 12-1 ] |
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You need TCU to lose because the committee is already telling you TN is in if they don't lose another game. You don't have to take anyone's word for it; you just have to look at the way they are ranking teams right now. They have the highest-ranked ACC team (us) currently at #10, sitting behind a 2-loss Alabama. That should tell you all you need to know about what they are thinking when it comes to the ACC.
If the conference was stronger then I might be able to see your point but it isn't getting any respect and I just think too many strange things would have to happen to get an ACC team in the mix.
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All-TigerNet [13514]
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Re: I really don't see us being left out if we are 12-1
Nov 14, 2022, 11:13 AM
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Let me put it another way. Here is the only way I see Clemson being able to pass TN. The committee's objective has always been to try and make sure the 4 best teams in the country are in the playoffs. Conference champions only come in as a tiebreaker if 2 teams are close, i.e. comparing the #4 and #5 teams. In that sense, if the #5 team wins a conference championship then there is a chance they might jump over a #4 ranked team that didn't win a conference championship.
This being the case, TN is going to move up to at least #4 after the OSU-MI game so that means Clemson needs to move from #10 to #5 over the next couple of weeks to get in position to have the conference championship mean anything as far as the playoffs and they probably need style points by beating UNC handily in order to get enough consideration to jump over the team in front of them.
I just don't see the dominos falling our way but I guess anything is possible.
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CU Guru [1863]
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If TN wins out, they would go before us.
Nov 14, 2022, 10:56 AM
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nm
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Orange Blooded [2594]
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Re: Path to Playoffs really isn't as bad as I thought
Nov 14, 2022, 11:23 AM
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We are not a playoff caliber team right now. Our path would end in embarrassment to a team we most likely know their fans.
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