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Replies: 22
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All-TigerNet [10892]
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CPI 5.4. Holy cow.
Jul 14, 2021, 9:44 AM
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the CPI is a completely nonsense statistic so it grossly understates inflation. Now even that stat is ridiculously high. Watch out.
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110%er [8988]
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Re: CPI 5.4. Holy cow.
Jul 14, 2021, 11:20 AM
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*Biden sure is taxing the carp out of poor folks
but trump is a meanie!
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All-In [40936]
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you saved 16 cents on bbq
Jul 14, 2021, 1:50 PM
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On the 4th of July
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Commissioner [941]
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Re: CPI 5.4. Holy cow.
Jul 14, 2021, 3:25 PM
[ in reply to Re: CPI 5.4. Holy cow. ] |
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If you ask Tigerbalm, the smartest man-chile on Tnet, what is causing inflation, he would say, "What inflation?"
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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Joined: 9/11/11
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PPI 7.3
Jul 14, 2021, 11:46 AM
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Reverse Repo Market sitting on a Trillion
Fun times if you're a trader or into game theory.
I agree, CPI print is grossly understated.
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110%er [5687]
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Re: CPI 5.4. Holy cow.
Jul 14, 2021, 1:47 PM
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Huh? But wait, Biden told me my July 4th BBQ was $0.16 cheaper than last year? Could be be lying?
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All-In [31907]
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You really want to be assigning credit to Biden for...
Jul 14, 2021, 2:13 PM
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booming demand that is one of the main drivers of inflation right now?
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110%er [9666]
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Well - Biden was trying to take credit for lack of inflation
Jul 14, 2021, 2:24 PM
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So, it seems like that makes this fair game.
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All-In [31907]
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ok...what do you think the inflation....
Jul 14, 2021, 2:42 PM
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drivers are right now?
[and don't get me wrong...Biden shouldn't have been claiming credit for low inflation]
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All-In [40936]
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over supply of cash into the economy
Jul 14, 2021, 2:43 PM
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it creates inflation every time. Excess supply decreases value.
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: ok...what do you think the inflation....
Jul 14, 2021, 3:36 PM
[ in reply to ok...what do you think the inflation.... ] |
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2 main drivers of inflation
1. Stimulus checks and covid unemployment benefits
2. Shortage of supply on pretty much everything. Because of unemployment benefits, companies have a shortage of workers so there is a huge reduction in production. This is going on in all industries right now. On top of that, to hire new workers you are having to pay them way more. I've heard of companies giving employees a $200 weekly bonus for showing up to work all 5 or 6 days of work. Crazy times.
Demand has had a small influence on inflation in some industries like lumber. Throughout the covid lockdown, there was a shortage of wood and also increased demand. Homeowners were sitting home all day and we're doing all sorts of projects.
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All-In [31907]
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I don't think you can unlink supply and demand....
Jul 14, 2021, 3:58 PM
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in such general terms like that.
There is no doubt that supply is lagging demand...but it's a chicken or the egg kind of statement right now.
Demand was pent-up, in part due to covid and supply had dropped - to both match demand and due to labor issues, depending on the market.
Demand in many segments/markets is above pre-covid levels.
However, the main point in my OP was that "blaming Biden" for inflation 6 months into his term coming off a huge covid down-swing is ill-informed.
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All-TigerNet [10892]
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All-In [31907]
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What, in your expert opinion, is driving inflation?***
Jul 14, 2021, 2:40 PM
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Orange Blooded [4701]
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Stimulus checks***
Jul 14, 2021, 2:44 PM
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All-In [31907]
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Probably played a part, but total stimulus....
Jul 14, 2021, 3:25 PM
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over 2 years was about $375BB (didn't look it up, so could be off). If that figure is correct, that's about 1.75% of 2020 GDP. That can't be the main driver, although it sure is contributing.
2021 payments I think are in the range of $4BB and included in the above.
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All-TigerNet [10892]
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All-In [31907]
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currency inflation? Do you know what that even means?***
Jul 14, 2021, 3:14 PM
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All-TigerNet [10892]
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that's not an argument.***
Jul 14, 2021, 3:53 PM
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All-In [31907]
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You're right, sorry. Can you explain what you mean...
Jul 14, 2021, 4:06 PM
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by currency inflation?
It's a term that isn't normally used like I think you're using.
Do you use it to mean Monetary Inflation?
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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All-In [31907]
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huge rise in 2020 along with huge drop in output....
Jul 14, 2021, 4:12 PM
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but very low inflation in 2020.
You sure fed balance sheet is direct driver of the inflation we're seeing now?
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Hall of Famer [21940]
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yeah man
Jul 14, 2021, 4:23 PM
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the huge rise you mentioned is $4 trillion dollars lol. that's 20% of our GDP bro
all of the other, organic data points that are pushing inflation (supply chain issues, surge in demand from people coming back) are ridiculously exacerbated by the increase in capital right now.
The mortgage / real estate industry is booming b/c of the low interest rates.
The market literally can't correct itself b/c of all the liquidity.
And speaking of liquidity, check out the reverse repo balances...almost clocked a trillion right before quarter end.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
The Fed is driving this ####. From stimmy checks, to keeping rates low, to the PPP ########...all of it was way too much and unnecessary.
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