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Commissioner [941]
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Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 3:13 PM
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I just returned from voting at a deep red precinct surrounding Lake Murray in Saluda County. A poll worker told me that under 100 people voted in the 2014 mid-term … and at 2 p.m. I was the 257th person to cast a vote. Yikes! If this is similar to what other red precincts could be seeing across the country the Republicans could defy the polls again … and hold the House. The Lefts' collective heads would explode! Would love to see it!
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Hall of Famer [22127]
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Re: Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 3:21 PM
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Our precinct here in Clemson had lines outside the building. We had five voting machines and could have used several more to speed up the voting process. Took me about an hour to vote. Our precinct is usually RED.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 3:23 PM
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Although this is on the football board, I will give my insight.
Historically, high voter turnout in midterms has favored the Dems much more than the GOP. Despite what we may want to believe and what the SC demographics are, the country is around 35-40 percent Dem, 30-35 percent GOP and 30-35 percent Independent. The major advantage for the GOP is that a large portion of the members of the Democratic Party are younger voters that just don't turnout like older voters. In a hypothetical scenario where 100 percent of the electorate turns out, the GOP would be in trouble. Many GOP pollsters have openly admitted this fact.
I don't for a second think that turnout will be much higher than 50-60 percent at the absolute best case scenario, so it will come down to which base is more enthusiastic and whether Independents choose to vote in this midterm. The Dems have a slight advantage over the GOP among Independents so this will be a huge factor.
One last point, the reason that the GOP defied the polls in 2016 was almost exclusively due to an advantage in enthusiasm. Also, national polls are completely irrelevant in presidential elections given the electoral college. The polls were actually pretty close nationally in that Hillary would win the popular vote by a few percent given the large populations of the Northeast and West Coast, but as I said national polls are irrelevant in presidential elections.
For the record, I am a right leaning independent, but I always prefer to base my analysis on verifiable facts.
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Commissioner [941]
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Re: Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 3:42 PM
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WOW! Didn't know any of this. You're such a smart guy. For GOD's sake, man, I was just making an observation … not an in depth, bloviating analysis. Can't you accept it for what it was intended to be? Yeesh! Oh … and in this day and age, anybody who claims to be an independent, and doesn't have a strong opinion on whether the country should follow the policies of socialists or mainstream Republicans is a fool or a … uh … er … fool! Sorry.
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Legend [16870]
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I won't bloviate...
Nov 6, 2018, 3:46 PM
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But that was quite rude. He was simply providing his perspective.
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Orange Blooded [2383]
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The previous poster gave a polite, intelligent response
Nov 6, 2018, 3:46 PM
[ in reply to Re: Lightning Striking Twice? ] |
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You responded with outrage.
Seems about right for our current political dialogue in this country.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Why so sensitive??
Nov 6, 2018, 4:13 PM
[ in reply to Re: Lightning Striking Twice? ] |
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I didn't say anything at all calling you out. I was simply providing my perspective that high turnout might not necessarily be a good thing.
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All-In [38429]
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Re: Why so sensitive??
Nov 6, 2018, 5:39 PM
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My bet is that the mere mention of Bill's wife was what triggered the outburst .
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Legend [15914]
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 4:19 PM
[ in reply to Re: Lightning Striking Twice? ] |
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Do you even know what socialism is? There are very few prominent socialists in this country.
Also, for the record, a very large number of "mainstream Republicans" as you call them are now independents.
Just because I am independent doesn't mean I don't have strong opinions on politics. Quite the opposite in fact. My strong opinions are the exact reason that I am an independent instead of a member of a specific party where I would have to conform specific believes to fit the narrative of a particular party.
It's okay to disagree with someone without demonizing their motives. I may not agree with Dems on immigration, but I don't think they hate the country. I don't agree with Trumpists on immigration either.
If you watch either Fox News or MSNBC you are being constantly misled when the truth is typically in the middle. I used to watch almost exclusive Fox News, but the number of lies they constantly push is nauseating. Shep Smith and even Neil Cavuto have to call out their own network regularly.
Now let's get back to football for God's sake.
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Orange Blooded [2877]
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Hall of Famer [21267]
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As a stron conservative, I must say,
Nov 6, 2018, 5:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: Lightning Striking Twice? ] |
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You sound completely idiotic. And this is completely the wrong bored. But I felt so strongly that I needed to let you know how idiotic you seem that I logged in, and replied on a post on the wrong bored, just to do so.
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110%er [9879]
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Legend [17626]
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FWIW, and it's one tiny data point, but
Nov 6, 2018, 4:36 PM
[ in reply to Re: Lightning Striking Twice? ] |
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The Greenville TV station reported at 4:30 that the precinct they were reporting from had already surpassed 52% of registered voters. There was a huge turnout at my voting precinct as well.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: FWIW, and it's one tiny data point, but
Nov 6, 2018, 4:40 PM
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Wow, even though it's anecdotal at this point, 52 percent in any precinct with hours left in a midterm is absolutely insane.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Walked straight in and voted at lunch time here in Irmo
Nov 6, 2018, 3:31 PM
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110%er [9109]
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I think the high turnout will favor the GOP
Nov 6, 2018, 4:00 PM
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I majored in PoSc at Clemson and worked in politics in FL for a while, for both parties, so I have a little insight on these things.
My observations are that while the left has a lot of indignation and hostility, I think the enthusiasm that Trump has stirred up will work in the favor of the GOP. Another intangible is the outright hostility of the left - media, celebrities, politicians.
Many on the left are not happy, but are more apathetic and resigned to "whatever whatever," in large part because there are so many young people in registered as Democrats, if they're registered at all.
Many on the right, however, are ticked off at the way they are being portrayed and attempted to be manipulated and they want to show the left that 2016 was not just an aberration or a rejection of Clinton or the work of the Russians, but of genuine support for change from outside either party. I think the right will make that statement loud and clear tonight and the left will be wondering, once again, what happened because they can't accept the reality that a large percentage, if not a majority, of the country really feel the way they do.
If the Dems win either the House or the Senate, much less both, we're looking at two years of absolute gridlock and incredible partisan politics that will be very damaging or, at the least, will basically lead to nothing of consequence being accomplished the next two years, which I think will feed in to Trump's popularity. If the GOP retains control, then it's all on them. If they fail, then the Dems have a great platform that is objective and can't be argued. If the GOP succeeds, then the Dems are left where they are now - resorting to baseless accusations, stalling tactics and condescending hostility.
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Rock Defender [54]
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I didn't major in it and virtually know nothing about it but
Nov 6, 2018, 4:23 PM
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: I think the high turnout will favor the GOP
Nov 6, 2018, 4:45 PM
[ in reply to I think the high turnout will favor the GOP ] |
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^^^Interesting that you call it PoSc. All my entire life since college days I have never heard it called that. PoliSci is waht we always called it. Has that changed? I missed the memo. I only question it since you majored in it and would be the source of correctness.
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110%er [9109]
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Re: I think the high turnout will favor the GOP
Nov 6, 2018, 4:53 PM
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POSC was just the designation for the classes. Still pronounced PoliSci but I was feeling lazy and didn't want to type all that.
Nice how people TD you for opinions, but that's expected these days. Wasn't trying to be arrogant - just saying I've studied it and lived it for several years and thought it might offer a little different insight. But hey - it's your thing. Do what you wanna do. Use your thumbs however you wish.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: I think the high turnout will favor the GOP
Nov 6, 2018, 4:58 PM
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Be careful posting your own objective opinion around here. If people disagree with your opinion then some will give you a thumbs down regardless of how thoughtful it is,
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Rock Defender [54]
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That's why it's best to keep P&R on the P&R board***
Nov 6, 2018, 5:00 PM
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: That's why it's best to keep P&R on the P&R board***
Nov 6, 2018, 5:01 PM
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Exactly why I was hesitant to post anything on this thread to begin with. I really didn't mean to open up such a can of worms.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Yeah I learned the hard way a few years ago
Nov 6, 2018, 5:04 PM
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Varsity [247]
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Please get this off the football board
Nov 6, 2018, 4:24 PM
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And maybe consider turning off the Fox News once in a while
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Rock Defender [54]
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lol at the Fox News part
Nov 6, 2018, 4:29 PM
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Varsity [247]
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Not hard to realize when you think about it
Nov 6, 2018, 4:37 PM
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Fox News, as a mouthpiece of the GOP, caters to the entire republican party and the republican party only. It has also, from their own genius (and IMO problematic) doing, convinced any viewers that all other news sources are wrong. So you have all right-wingers watching solely Fox News, while everyone else is free to decide between a number of various news channels. That splits up the viewership.
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Legend [16870]
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Do you seriously consider the rest
Nov 6, 2018, 4:45 PM
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Of the media networks 'various' in perspective? Come on, man! There's a reason why Fox has the audience it has, because its' viewers, rightly or wrongly, have no other avenue to turn to. Lastly, why is it that Fox is constantly 'land-blasted' by the other outlets? Hint: it's economic.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Varsity [247]
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SMH
Nov 6, 2018, 5:28 PM
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Sean Hannity literally joined Trump on stage last night to campaign. It would make less sense if he wasn't Cohen's third client. He has a lot riding on Trump staying in office.
FWIW, the other news channels definitely lean left. But the scale goes something like this.
--------MSNBC----CNN--NPR-MIDDLE-----------------Fox News-----Brietbart/etc
Even as far left as MSNBC is, Fox News is farther away from the center than it is. There have been numerous studies on this.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Please get this off the football board
Nov 6, 2018, 4:42 PM
[ in reply to Please get this off the football board ] |
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"And maybe consider turning off the Fox News once in a while"
- sorry dude, but many of us are in search of the TRUTH, not FAKE NEWS. I'll stick with Fox News, thank you very much. Maybe look outside sometime and see what is happening in the world, and turn off those Fake News channels. They are rotting your brain.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: Please get this off the football board
Nov 6, 2018, 4:45 PM
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I agree with you on the need to search for the truth, but really the only way to determine the truth is to watch multiple perspectives and read things for yourself. Fox News and MSNBC are both mouthpieces for their perspective parties outside of a few personalities. Sean Hannity and Jeanine Pirro even appeared at a Trump rally yesterday.
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Varsity [247]
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I never said I was watching those channels, did I?
Nov 6, 2018, 5:33 PM
[ in reply to Re: Please get this off the football board ] |
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I don't know how to argue with you but I hope that you think for yourself and search for other sources outside of Fox News. You're being lied to day in and day out. Not always directly, but through the purposeful omission of so many blatant lies and scandals by the Trump administration.
If you'd like to look through any sort of study on the matter, Fox News and other far-right outlets peddle the large majority of news that is actually fake. But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of a good slogan. Everyone knows facts have a left-leaning bias.
The real problem in the country stems from sects of people getting entirely different sets of news. Living in echo chambers isn't safe for either side. Whether Fox News chooses to let their viewers understand it or not, core tenants of our democracy are being destroyed little by little every day. Maybe you're fine with that as long as "dems" are losing. Personally I think we are all losing.
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Legend [16870]
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I don't trust the purported 'studies' you
Nov 6, 2018, 6:12 PM
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Reference any more than the networks. Nor do I watch any of them, for the sake of the network, alone. There may...MAY, be a person of interest I'll watch/listen to occasionally, but on the whole, no, I don't listen to any of them. They're no longer in the reporting business...regardless the medium.
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Orange Blooded [2523]
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Re: Lightning Striking Twice?
Nov 6, 2018, 4:41 PM
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You act like running the country is some kind of game. And you take pleasure in seeing the other team's discomfort. This isn't sport. This is serious business. Peoples wellbeing are at stake on all points of the political spectrum. Ultimately, we either all win or we all lose. Civil political discourse and problem solving has evaporated and both sides should be ashamed. Yet they aren't, and that's even sadder.
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Oculus Spirit [83131]
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