Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Syracuse projections

Xavier Thomas emerged with his best game of the season last week against Florida State. He will need to make plays versus talented veteran Orange QB Garrett Shrader.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Sep 27 09:45:07 GMT-04:00 2023

Clemson’s 2023 season has been a test in the correlation of successful stats to the most critical category in the end: the win-loss record.

Several numbers show the Tigers at 2-2 being a better team than this week’s opponent in the JMA Wireless Dome, 4-0 Syracuse (noon/ABC).

But there are certainly those that show why Clemson is no longer a Top 25 team anywhere.

Taking a closer look at how the teams compare:

Efficiency rankings: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (16 overall): 21 | 16 | 82

SU SP+ ranks (30): 34 | 26 | 24

CU FEI ranks (18): 33 | 6 | 120

SU FEI ranks (30): 28 | 36 | 95

CU FPI ranks (17): 73 | 7 | 130

SU FPI ranks (20): 18 | 14 | 99

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Special teams continue to not be very special for the Tigers (111th on average among the metrics), but Clemson faces a Syracuse team that has its lower ratings there, too (No. 99 with FPI; No. 95 with FEI).

Not weighed down like stats such as scoring defense with extra factors, Clemson’s defenders are rated as high as No. 6 nationally, and it meets an Orange offense that’s a unanimous Top 35 unit and ranked as high as No. 18 (FPI). More on the player that makes that group go down further in this piece.

Outside of the outlier in ESPN’s FPI rank for Clemson’s offense (73), the teams are pretty even on the matchup, with Syracuse holding a mark as high as No. 14 defensively.

Three Syracuse players to watch

1. QB Garrett Shrader

Shrader’s ability to hurt you on the ground and through the air as a savvy vet has been on full display this season. In the running game, Shrader (6-4 225) has graded well (79.1 with PFF) with 8.1 yards per carry and six touchdowns. He had 111 yards after contact in the 35-20 win at Purdue. Against the blitz, Shrader grades at 92.2 (PFF) with a 64.3 completion rate and 10.5 yards per attempt. Under pressure, he’s averaging 12.9 yards per attempt, but that’s only been 26.7% of his dropbacks this season. “Kept clean,” Shrader has connected on 71% of his throws at 8.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns to two interceptions. He had a near-identical ratio last season there, but he has improved against pressure, where he only averaged 5.7 yards per pass in that situation in 2022.

He posted his third-best offensive grade of last season versus Clemson (90.2), which was a dramatic improvement from his first try versus the Tigers in the Dome two years ago (43.5 grade).

2. CB Isaiah Johnson

In the 3-3-5 scheme, Johnson is the second-highest graded Orange defender (81.5), lauded for his ability not only in coverage (80 grade) but also against the run (82.3; second-best on Syracuse). He has allowed 10.4 yards per reception with eight catches on him in 14 targets. The Tigers found him for four receptions in four targets his way for 43 yards, grading sub-50 in coverage (49.3).

3. S Alijah Clark

Clark paces the Orange in coverage grade (83.4) with only 4.9 yards allowed per catch on him this season. He also leads Syracuse in tackling grade (86.2)

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

In Power 5 games last week, only Notre Dame (hosting Ohio State), Wake Forest (hosting Georgia Tech) and Michigan State (hosting Maryland) had better net success rates than their opponent (amount of successful plays on offense against successful plays allowed on defense) in defeat than Clemson in the 31-24 overtime loss to Top 5 Florida State. As you might expect, it's not typical to lose and have a better net success rate, with Clemson's result among 10 significant edges that way and one of five for Power 5 games.

Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 4 pic.twitter.com/68d7RNDaEJ
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 25, 2023

Odds

Clemson -6.5; 53.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 27-25 (55% Clemson projection)

ESPN FPI: 55.1% Syracuse projection

FEI: Clemson 23-21 (55.2% Clemson projection)

CLEMSON @ SYRACUSE pic.twitter.com/2GGx8WmNSg
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 26, 2023

Analysis: The trend in the metric picks is that this’ll be a close one, with ESPN’s FPI being in Syracuse’s camp and others picking the reigning ACC champs and winners of five-straight in the series and 9-of-10 since the Orange moved to the ACC. Clemson has had years where it hits its groove and does well on the road, and there have been seasons (2021, most prominently) where the road ACC slate was a struggle. Maybe the turnover luck turns in Clemson’s favor, and the offense keeps clicking. Maybe Syracuse harnesses the home-field advantage with some bright spots on both sides of the ball to really challenge for this one.

It’s a trend that may just be broken, but Clemson has covered just one spread against Syracuse from the 2017 season-on, with multiple games not even close to the number. I’ll be taking the Tigers straight-up but in a closer game than the number here. Pick: Syracuse +6.5. (2-2 on ATS picks, 2-2 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story)