BREAKING

SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019


by - Staff Writer -
SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019

SB Nation released its preview for the defending champs on Monday and Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are projected to dominate the regular season. Where they fall in the national rankings may come as a surprise, however.

Clemson is given an 89 percent or higher win probability and a three-touchdown advantage-plus in 10 of the 12 regular season games. The two closer calls are still two-possession games with the trip to South Carolina (12.6 projected margin) and hosting Texas A&M (13.7) in week two.

Clemson is projected to improve on its ranking offensively, moving up from No. 5 in 2018 to No. 3 this season. The defense, losing eight with regular starting experience, is picked to take a step back but still maintain a top-10 unit (8). In the overall efficiency ranking, Clemson (98.2) finished narrowly behind Alabama (99.5) and Georgia (99) last year and the Tigers are preseason No. 3 in 2019 as well.

“Clemson wasn’t really 28 points better than Alabama last year,” SB Nation’s Bill Connelly wrote. “S&P+ (stat definitions below) still graded the Tide better for the season as a whole (and does so heading into 2019 as well), and the title game’s strange ‘Alabama wins every first down, and Clemson wins every third down and red zone snap formula wasn’t particularly replicable.

“The Tigers still got the ring, though, their second in three seasons. And with maybe the most manageable schedule among any title contender, they’ll have the surest shot at reaching the CFP this year, too…(Alabama coach Nick) Saban can best Swinney in recruiting (at least, for now), but Swinney fills in the gaps with culture and continuity and maybe the only QB in the country who can rival Saban’s. And 2019’s payoff will likely be a fifth straight shot at Bama.”

The 2018 champs ranked in the top-5 last year also in SB Nation/Football Outsiders metrics with standard downs S&P+ defense (1), defense adjusted line yards (1), passing downs yards per carry allowed (1), standard down yards per carry allowed (2), rushing defense S&P+ (2), passing downs S&P+ (3), passing downs defense S&P+ (4), defensive success rate (4), offensive (5) and defensive points per scoring opportunity (1) and passing downs sack rate on defense (5).

Miami holds the next-best efficiency ratings in the ACC from SB Nation as a projected favorite in each of its ACC games (their matchup at FSU being a virtual toss-up with a 51 percent projection) and all but one contest on the season (projected -10.7 margin versus Florida to open the year).

(S&P+ is a SB Nation/Football Outsiders metric that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers...Success rate is determined by gaining 50 percent of the necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth down...Passing downs are defined as second down with eight or more yards to go or third or fourth down with five or more yards to go. All other situations are “standard” downs.)

Comment on this story
Print   
Send Feedback to Brandon Rink: Email | Comment
WATCH: Behind the Scenes of Clemson Football Photo Day
WATCH: Behind the Scenes of Clemson Football Photo Day
WATCH: Trevor Lawrence throws TD passes to Tim Tebow, Travis Etienne
WATCH: Trevor Lawrence throws TD passes to Tim Tebow, Travis Etienne
4-star Clemson target sets announcement date
4-star Clemson target sets announcement date
WATCH: Jaguar fans cheer Trevor Lawrence at practice
WATCH: Jaguar fans cheer Trevor Lawrence at practice
Post your comments!
Subject (Replies: 78) Author
spacer TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
TigerNet News
spacer No, we really are that much better.***
TigerTown
spacer If we hadn't taken a knee,
tiger_swimmer®
spacer Re: If we hadn't taken a knee,
treetiger
spacer Re: No, we really are that much better.***
Rswanson
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
TigerBill82®
spacer No,
Clemsontigers14®
spacer I see you listen to PAPN***
JSpears
spacer PAPN, the audible, and solid verbal
Clemsontigers14®
spacer So Connelly is wrong instead of ESPiN... Who cares? He
SOLOS®
spacer Re: No,
b2westfarm
spacer Re: No,
TigerBill82®
spacer Re: No,
Clemson_country89®
spacer His numbers don’t mean squat
T3Tiger®
spacer That was nice of them to still give us the rings even though
TigerDominance®
spacer blah blah blah...we know the drill.***
El Tigre 1
spacer If the Tigers had scored on that last 10 plus minutes drive,
tigeron®
spacer Re: If the Tigers had scored on that last 10 plus minutes drive,
mpercy®
spacer Re: If the Tigers had scored on that last 10 plus minutes drive,
clemson2003®
spacer 98 yard drive and over ten minutes then scoring would
tigeron®
spacer The thing I liked most about the drive was TL rushing for
SOLOS®
spacer Re: The thing I liked most about the drive was TL rushing for
Tigerdug23®
spacer What Bill Connolly doesn't understand...
TigerCC®
spacer Re: What Bill Connolly doesn't understand...
whatweeatin
spacer Re: What Bill Connolly doesn't understand...
Tigerluvr
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
CU_Kobe_24®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
TigerLinks®
spacer In retrospect Tigers should have put 51 pts on these
lightbulbbill®
spacer Re: In retrospect Tigers should have put 51 pts on these
Tigerdug23®
spacer The author is a joke and emotionally
Save the Tiger
spacer It's been said that
Salty55®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
Southeasterntiger
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
ithaca
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
clemson2003®
spacer Agreed
tigerpathmd®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
HillBillyTiger
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
moodytiger
spacer Nothing to see here, just trying to
HumbleServant®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
Calhoun2
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
Bleedorange09
spacer I'm still a huge Bill Connelly fan. I don't agree with
TigersAndCubs®
spacer So you're saying he thinks "It just means more."...? Such a
SOLOS®
spacer Re: So you're saying he thinks "It just means more."...? Such a
Tigerlife2005
spacer Re: So you're saying he thinks "It just means more."...? Such a
CU_Kobe_24®
spacer Re: I'm still a huge Bill Connelly fan. I don't agree with
Tigerlife2005
spacer Re: I'm still a huge Bill Connelly fan. I don't agree with
jraeCU01
spacer Re: I'm still a huge Bill Connelly fan. I don't agree with
CU_Kobe_24®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
allinallorangeallthetime52®
spacer we were 5 touchdowns better than they were
Fordtunate Son
spacer Deer Bill....SCOREBOARD!!!!
Anonymous08®
spacer Re: Deer Bill....SCOREBOARD!!!!
go dolphins
spacer Correct. ABSOLUTE, COMPLETE BLOWOUT!!!***
SOLOS®
spacer Re: Deer Bill....SCOREBOARD!!!!
pointcove
spacer Pre-season rank 3... OK, no biggie...
TigerinCarolina
spacer I love how everyone immediately jumps on the ESPN thing
TigersAndCubs®
spacer Thank you!
tigerpathmd®
spacer Thank you!
tigerpathmd®
spacer ESPN pretty much led the disinformation campaign for the
TigerDominance®
spacer We were not 28 points better than Alabama last year
Neal in NC®
spacer He’s no different than the others. He has to blow the SEC horn.***
argonaut1992®
spacer He's really not. He spends more time talking about the G5
TigersAndCubs®
spacer What you calling a "horn"...?***
SOLOS®
spacer He's correct, we were 35 to 42 points better than bama
Memphis Tiger®
spacer S&B is the Stoopid
morbidtiger®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
casperasop1
spacer Whatever...I'm tired of blind/sycophant sports writers***
TigerzzRoar®
spacer the score board says we were indeed 28 points better***
tgrfan42069
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
b2westfarm
spacer B!tch, please....***
SOLOS®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
Tigerdug23®
spacer THIS JUST IN! Henceforth, games will be decided by who is
76er®
spacer Dear SB Nation,
AikenTiger_00®
spacer SB Nation suffers from an actute case of delusion
Reckless96®
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
ColumbiaTiger66
spacer How does his analytics compute
HuntClub®
spacer Re: How does his analytics compute
Jjdsdwtiger
spacer Here's poor little Clemson , chugging along on the ROY bus
Tim317
spacer Re: TNET: SB Nation projection ranks Clemson No. 3 in 2019
select
spacer i will settle for beating Georgia in the first round....
sophie

Sign Up for E-Mail News Alerts
Features
Breaking
Daily Digest