Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Notre Dame ACC Championship projections

Clemson's secondary faces a tough test again. (ACC photo)

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Thu Dec 17 11:02:23 GMT-04:00 2020

Clemson’s mantra is that each week is the biggest game of the season -- and it’s served them well to a consistency that few teams have come close to recently.

The Tigers’ playoff starts Saturday in a game that truly is the biggest of the season by any measure -- and a win clinches a sixth-straight ACC title and CFP berth.

Armed with Trevor Lawrence calling the shots this time, after sitting the first matchup out against Notre Dame in COVID-19 protocol, as well as having a number of key defensive players expected to face the Irish for the first time this season -- the odds are very much in Clemson’s favor (4 p.m./ABC).

Here’s how they matchup by advanced metrics in the three phases:

Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 2 overall): 5 | 6 | 36

ND SP+ ranks (No. 6): 10 | 9 | 75

CU ESPN ranks (No. 3 FPI rank): 8 | 1 | 99

ND ESPN ranks (No. 6): 10 | 13 | 101

(SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. ESPN’s own measure follows a similar formula to measure team efficiency and is tied to the ESPN Football Power Index.)

Clemson-Notre Dame by the numbers

Clemson leads the nation in both ESPN’s and FEI’s defensive efficiency stat.

Clemson’s yards per rush in the first game with the Fighting Irish. That was Notre Dame’s highest rush defense grade of the season to this point (84.5). In two games versus AP ranked teams this year, Notre Dame gave up 1.92 yards per carry. That other game was UNC and 87 yards surrendered, which just came off totaling 554 rushing yards at Miami and ranks No. 8 nationally in rushing offense (249 YPG).

Clemson’s BT Potter and Notre Dame’s Jonathan Doerer each hit four field goals in the Nov. 7 game. Potter hit from as far out as 46 yards and went 4-for-4 and Doerer hit 4-of-5 with a long of 45 yards. Doerer has gone 3-of-6 on attempts since the game (14-of-20 on the season) and Potter 2-of-3 (16-of-21 on the season). Potter has a long of 52 yards on the season and Doerer has connected from as far as 48 yards out.

Clemson has allowed 10 points per game to ACC Championship opponents over the last three games, including another top-10 matchup with Miami in 2017.

55.4

Clemson’s lowest pass-rush grade of the season came against the Fighting Irish (55.4), as well as the third-lowest coverage grade (52.9). Notre Dame ranks second in the ACC and 13th nationally in pass blocking (78.6) and best in the Power 5 in run blocking (89.9).

90.7

Ian Book posted his best passing grade of the season and his best-ever versus Power 5 team against the Tigers earlier this season (90.7). He ranks 44th nationally on the season, however, with a 79 passing-grade average.

91.8

Clemson’s average team grade over its last two ACC Championship game wins.

518

Notre Dame’s total yards in the first game against Clemson (518) were the second-most surrendered by a Brent Venables defense in the last two seasons and the third-most in the last four seasons.

(Grades and advanced stats per Pro Football Focus. Situational stats per CFBStats.com).

The Projections

Metrics aren’t seeing a double-digit affair like the current Vegas line (-10.5 Clemson), with all picking a one-score game.

The FEI projects the closest one with the Tigers by about a field goal (3.4) and ESPN’s FPI essentially picks a TD game in the widest margin (6.8).

After a slow start to the season against the number, Clemson has covered in the last two games -- and comfortably (beating the spread by double-digits in each). Including their win over Clemson on Nov. 7, Notre Dame has covered in three of their last four games.

Given some personnel issues on the ND side, the Irish might not quite be the team the metrics bill them to be from performance over the season, while Clemson is on the upswing from a health standpoint and could make a statement on the way to another Playoff run.

Metrics outlook | Prediction

SP+ projection: 63% Clemson (Clemson by 5.5)

FEI: 60% Clemson (Clemson by 3.4)

ESPN FPI: 70.7% Clemson (Clemson by 6.8)

Extra point

Clemson gets its chance to punch a ticket to yet another Playoff on Saturday.

Metrics would agree with Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, however, that they are one of the top-4 teams basically regardless of what happens at Bank of America Stadium.

Out of the top-7 in the CFP committee rankings, Clemson averages a third-best mark behind Alabama and Ohio State among three major metrics we track (+ Sagarin) with a place as high as No. 2 with ESPN’s SP+ ($), while CFP No. 2 Notre Dame averages No. 6 ranking and CFP No. 5 Texas A&M averages 12th. Two-loss and CFP No. 10 Oklahoma and CFP No. 8 Georgia are dead-even with Notre Dame by the same metrics.

Oklahoma has a chance to state its case in the Big 12 title game against No. 6 Iowa State, while Georgia’s regular-season is done. The Sooners have to hope that Power 5 title is worth a big bump from the committee for a chance, while Iowa State has to hope the committee continues to overvalue their 2020 campaign if they win (also averages 12th in metrics).

This is a weird season, but short of a Notre Dame blowout win Saturday night, it would be hard to have a Playoff billing the four best teams -- as they state the goal is to have each year as a committee -- without Swinney’s Tigers involved.