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Hall of Famer [20518]
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Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:43 PM
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Especially opening week, I've noticed that teams are VERY veteran-heavy. Returning starters make almost all the production; the newbs tend to swim and mill around doing nothing in particular. Usually by Week 3 or midseason, if a newb is going to adjust, they will have, but opening weekend tends to be rough on the uninitiated.
This is problematic for Auburn because of how much production they lost from last year. Granted, their production from last year was...limited, at best, but even what they had, largely isn't going to come back.
Where are their yards going to come from? Where are their touchdowns going to come from?
Guys close to Auburn tell me Sean White is running away with the starter's gig at QB. The thinking now is that they hope to get something out of John Franklin III by midseason, though they'll probably have a limited package for him against Clemson. Jeremy Johnson has apparently found his way well and truly to the doghouse; he was held out of last scrimmage and has allegedly been wretched, and possibly also checked out.
Sean White passed for just over 1100 yards, completing 58% of his passes, but he also threw just 1 touchdown versus four INT's. He is also smallish - just 6'1" - and in no way is athletic enough to run the read-option with any effectiveness.
Auburn's leading receiver is senior Marcus Davis. He caught 30 balls last year...for just 180 yards (just 6.0 yards per catch!) and 1 TD. In fact Auburn has just three other guys who caught passes for them last year...senior WR Tony Stevens and RB Kerryon Johnson caught 14 balls apiece for 177 and 159 yards, respectively, and Stevens had 1 touchdown himself. Fullback Kamryn Pettway had 1 catch for 12 yards.
Their leading returning rusher - actually the only guy who's ever carried a football in college before, ever - is Kerryon Johnson, who rushed 52 times for 208 yards (4.0 per carry) and 3 TD's. After that they've moved Kamryn Pettway to RB, and they have a couple of true freshmen behind those two. Their top three rushers from last year all departed early, and none were seniors, either to ill-advised jumps to the NFL, transfers, or discipline issues.
If you're keeping score, their returning players caught a total of 59 balls last year for just 517 yards and 2 TD's. Combined. For all of them.
They rushers have just 52 carries for 208 and 3 TD's. All told that means they return just 111 touches (carries, catches) for 725 yards and 5 TD's.
In contrast Clemson had 7,718 yards of total offense last year. We return almost 100% of it...yes, Zac Brooks (41 carries, 234 yards, 3 TD's), Charone Peake (50 catches for 716 yards, 5 TD's) and Germone Hopper (21 catches for 317 yards, 1 TD) do depart...but Clemson offsets those losses with Adam Choice (50 carries, 218 yards, 1 TD in 2014) and Mike Williams (57 catches, 1030 yards, 6 TD's in 2014), and so Clemson returns virtually all its statistical production from last year, which in college football terms is probably some kind of record.
Which means Clemson has literally 10 times the returning production on offense that Auburn does.
Auburn could have themselves a problem.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:45 PM
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Didn't you hear? Everyone on auburn runs a sub- 4.4 laser-timed 40 yard dash. When they move, all you see is a blurred line!
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110%er [5013]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:49 PM
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That's the SEC speed thing. Maybe we should just surrender.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:55 PM
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Lol. Earlier I read an article from 4/2016 that stated Javaris David runs a LASER-timed 4.12 40.
Bo Jackson ran a 4.14 HAND-timed. It's just ridiculous to me.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 9:00 PM
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Further, based on Usain Bolt's previous 100m times clocked at world championships, mathematicians estimated he would run a 3.97 laser-times 40-yd. dash. So they're saying Jadaris Davis runs the 40 1/10 of a second slower than the fastest person in the entire world? Hmm.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 9:01 PM
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* less than 1/10
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CU Guru [1330]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 9:55 PM
[ in reply to Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them ] |
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I doubt Usain Bolt runs under 4 seconds - he's usually middle of the pack until about 60 yards. I'd guess 4.15-4.20.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 11:04 PM
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I know you say that but these mathmeticians seriously crunched the numbers, analyzed multiple metrics, etc. Adjusting for reaction time, Usain Bolt is at 3.63 at 30m! And keep in mind, when he's running the 100, he's starting slow by device. He trains for that. If you watched him run the 100 smiling the other night, he can basically kick off into high gear at will on anyone. To be honest, I think he was jogging at the end and still killed the competition. Check it out:
https://www.freelapusa.com/how-fast-can-usain-bolt-run-the-40-yard-dash/
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110%er [6977]
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Team Captain [487]
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CU Medallion [55291]
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:48 PM
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Austin Bryant is worth .5 a point if even that. Bet Clemson to win big. Our offense will out score everyone this year.
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 16, 2016, 8:48 PM
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Austin Bryant is worth .5 a point if even that. Bet Clemson to win big. Our offense will out score everyone this year.
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CU Guru [1643]
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Good read
Aug 16, 2016, 8:57 PM
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Thanks for the breakdown
+1
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Athletic Dir [881]
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Try not to forget Julio Jones in 2008
Aug 16, 2016, 9:15 PM
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first game is always tough
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110%er [5912]
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Nice Read
Aug 16, 2016, 10:54 PM
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However they have much more returning on defense than we do.
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110%er [5508]
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thanks quozzel!
Aug 16, 2016, 11:03 PM
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You should find a way to get paid for writing about college football
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CU Guru [1047]
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Auburn recruits very well.
Aug 16, 2016, 11:14 PM
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They've had top 10 recruiting classes for 3 straight years. To be fair, I'm not really savvy to their program and their attrition and whatnot, but we should not overlook this game. Auburn is a tricky read. I understand they have a QB situation but they have athletes all over the place. All that said, I fully expect Clemson to pull out the W here but I will not undersell this victory. This will be a good W on our resume if we pull it out.
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Orange Blooded [4659]
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Re: Auburn recruits very well.
Aug 16, 2016, 11:15 PM
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* when we pull it out. 
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CU Guru [1047]
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Re: Auburn recruits very well.
Aug 16, 2016, 11:18 PM
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Yes sir, thank you. I meant, WHEN we pull it out!
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Orange Blooded [4483]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 17, 2016, 12:34 AM
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You do good work. Thanks. I like it.
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Orange Blooded [3338]
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That's true
Aug 17, 2016, 7:05 AM
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I never really looked at it that way. We return a net of -19 yards from last year. Add in the experience we retain from blocking (from every position), and learning the system. We, theoretically, are in for a record breaking offensive season! Good post!
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Hall of Famer [24685]
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+1... Nice, as usual....***
Aug 17, 2016, 7:14 AM
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Legend [17238]
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Auburn's inexperience may limit their HUNH & quick counts...
Aug 17, 2016, 7:52 AM
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Good.
I expect to see a lot of attempts at catching BV and our defense off guard. Opponents will do a lot of tricks to create confusion and missed assignments.
When Clemson's defense is organized and fresh, it is top 10 - expect the same in 2016. Most offenses will find it hard to man-up and beat us but will challenge us mentally.
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Walk-On [147]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 17, 2016, 8:37 AM
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Good post and nice effort on the stats!
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All-In [38422]
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Re: Did some math on Auburn...it ain't good for them
Aug 17, 2016, 8:43 AM
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Haven't you paid attention to the trolls...err ...posters on TNET Quozzell ?
Our defense is in trouble against Mal Zahn and his tricky offensive scheme ...and our offense is probably overrated .
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Hall of Famer [24685]
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Barring key injuries, this O may be one of the best...
Aug 17, 2016, 8:46 AM
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EVER!
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50
