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All-In [36207]
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Why Recruiting Service Rankings Are As Wrong As Right
Jan 22, 2019, 6:48 PM
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It boils down to the absolute numbers of recruits that must be ranked. Typically every year there are in excess of 3,000 FBS and another 2,000 FCS scholarships awarded. These scholarships are then awarded to a pool of over 300,000 high school football seniors. Add to this that there are about 3,400-3,700 2 Star and better rated players per year with less than 40 5*s and less then 400 4*s.
Even if you had tape on all 300,000 kids and could somehow watch each kid for 10 minutes you would need over 2,000 full days at 24 hours a day to just watch every kid. For argument sake lets say you can through metrics and common sense exclude 90% of of the 300,000 you would still need 200 days of 24/7 watching to just baseline evaluate 3,000 kids.
So what really happens, these recruiting source use word of mouth, word of media, word of coaches and ultimately end up with hive mind group think on these kids. Whatever process Dabo and crew use is working better than the services. The produce on the field shows it loud and clear.
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110%er [7173]
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110%er [7173]
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Misses By Recruiters!
Jan 22, 2019, 7:11 PM
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I think Clemson gets it's fair share of the cream of the crop! But, all those kids aren't good fits for "the program"! If a kid has had red flags on him; he may just need that father figure coach to turn him around or "he's trouble"! I think the staff has decided it's better to coach up a slightly less talented kid rather than deal with trouble! I can't say I blame them.
The other thing as the article point out: how many of these kids were "camp warriors"! They never really did it on the field; but their shorts and t-shirt play was awesome. They subsequently get ranked high or higher than their actual talent level, sign, then get a coach dismissed. Why, because you should win with a bunch of "highly ranked players"!
Recruiting services will mess a coach up more than anything! You commit to a kid that maybe has "plateaued"! That plateau is not good enough for college!
Johnny 2 or 3 star with only a handful of offers has not reached physical maturity level yet and can play better technique/leverage. Because they had to rely on actual football ability instead of being bigger/faster/stronger than the competition.
Or the kid who played against weak competition that gets ranked really high! You get the kid on campus and realize, "he only looked so dominate b/c of the competition"! Oh well, 4 years of this!
Our Coaching staff has done an excellent job especially with OL regarding this very thing.
We signed a couple DT this cycle: one from Kansas the other from Michigan; neither have been playing football long! But, both have a drive, and are athletes who played other sports. Raw putty(if you will) in the hands of Coach Bates and Coach Venables!
Both were 3 star players b/c they started late. Probably didn't do camps. I have a feeling they will be monsters by the time they are done and everyone will know their names.
I like how they go with who they like over who the services say is best!
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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I understand the point of the argument
Jan 22, 2019, 7:22 PM
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But do you think our coaches/recruiting staff aren’t also using word of mouth/coaches/media etc to find recruits too? Recruiting services as a whole typically have the blue chip recruits identified pretty well and there’s a reason that teams that have high recruiting rankings typically win the most games (check out the Blue Chip Ratio from Bud Elliot if you haven’t already). There’s bound to be misses when you’re dealing with 17-18 year old kids that either are overvalued or undervalued.
I agree that our staff has done a great job at identifying and developing talent. But you said yourself there’s 3,000 FBS prospects every year, nobody can evaluate all of them.
Don’t mean to pick on anyone, just the “recruiting rankings don’t matter” arguments are a pet peeve of mine.
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All-In [36207]
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I Think Regionally You Can Make This Work
Jan 23, 2019, 9:19 AM
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Especially when you have the $ and relationships. Coach to coach relationships are very different than what HS coaches will share w/a recruiting service.
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All-TigerNet [10121]
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Re: I understand the point of the argument
Jan 23, 2019, 9:36 AM
[ in reply to I understand the point of the argument ] |
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I agree with your argument BornATiger13.... Stars are certainly not the be all and end all - other factors like character, coaching etc - certainly matter. But recruiting rankings are important. I found the Blue Chip Ratio and Elliott’s conclusion that teams have to have a Ratio greater than 50 to be in the championship hunt to be very interesting - and apparently he is spot on....
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Orange Blooded [4947]
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Re: I understand the point of the argument
Jan 23, 2019, 9:45 AM
[ in reply to I understand the point of the argument ] |
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I think the word of mouth argument is largely why Dabo says players need to make an effort to come to Clemson. Usually this would be for camp at some point and give the coaches a chance to evaluate. Once they have initial impressions they can watch film or go to a game.
I agree metrics like blue chip ratio give a good indication of why recruiting rankings matter. I would counter that in saying that although within the margins, Clemson was until recently at the lower end of the spectrum. It is very unlikely that Dabo will finish with a top ranked class, but he does a great job of building team unity and that will continue to allow us to compete with the best.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Re: I understand the point of the argument
Jan 23, 2019, 10:44 AM
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You hit on a point that I think is key as to why Dabo’s hit rate on recruits seems to be much higher than most of the country and that’s character and culture. Dabo and Staff largely won’t take a kid unless they deem him a cultural fit and I think that’s a huge factor. Getting guys into our camp to properly evaluate them is also big.
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Legend [16207]
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"whatever process"? how about "character"
Jan 22, 2019, 7:27 PM
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Of high character goes a long way in life.
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All-TigerNet [10822]
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1 word, development
Jan 22, 2019, 7:34 PM
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Some kids work hard to develop. Some don't.
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All-TigerNet [14751]
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Re: Why Recruiting Service Rankings Are As Wrong As Right
Jan 23, 2019, 9:24 AM
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They aren't, the rankings correspond greatly with the Team results on field.
People take exceptions and then say the rankings are wrong. Terrible logic and thinking. The 5 star success rate is much higher than 4, 4 is higher than 3, and so on. The fact "Travis Etienne" was a 3 doesn't disprove a thing, 5 stars have a higher SUCCESS RATE than 3s, that doesn't mean 3's are zero.
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