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Topic: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)
Replies: 29   Last Post: Oct 21, 2019 1:14 PM by: BigChief2000
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Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[20]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:16 PM
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Polls are meaningless until the real poll comes out in November, however I think we have a pretty good idea of who is a legit Top 5 team, and the ones who are not. Right now, to me, there are only two teams who are clearly (based on numbers) better than anyone else in the nation after seven games. The two teams are Ohio State and Clemson.

According to NCAA stats (not a talking pundits’ asinine opinions or that stupid “eye test” crap) there are ONLY 2 teams who are ranked in the Top 10 in both total offense and total defense. Those two teams are Ohio State and Clemson. (Ohio State is #5 in total offense, Clemson is #10. Ohio State is #3 in total defense and Clemson is #5). Furthermore, let’s look at the two most important stats (to me, anyway): scoring offense and scoring defense. In scoring offense, Ohio State is #3 and Clemson is #10 (and we all know that Clemson could EASILY be Top 5 in this category in Coach Swinney weren’t merciful to opponents) In scoring defense, Ohio State is #2 and Clemson is #8 (and, again, if not for Dabo wanting to develop depth and have mercy, Clemson would be higher here as well). The ONLY other team in America who is Top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense is Penn State at #10 (tied with Clemson) and #3.

Therefore, according to real and actual results of football yardage and points (the things that ultimately make wins and losses) there are only three teams who can boast Top 10 in two of those four categories and only 2 can boast Top 10 in all four of those categories, plus also be 7-0 after 7 games. So, my AP poll Top 10 would look like this:

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Penn State
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU
6. Alabama
7. Wisconsin
8. Florida
9. Auburn
10. Oregon


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:19 PM
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Great post!


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2019 1:45 AM
    Reply

https://www.tigernet.com/forum/message/Only-2-teams-are-NCAA-top-10-in-the-total-defense-38;-offense-26178228

2019 purple level member

"It is not part of a true culture to tame tigers any more than it is to make sheep ferocious."
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Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2019 6:43 AM
    Reply

Ha! That’s pretty neat. I didn’t know you had observed this as well. It is rather amazing that folks seem to think Clemson is just wretched this year, isn’t it? I understand emotional response during the games. I’m guilty of it. Most honest fans are, but the numbers really don’t support that, do they? Anyhow, thanks for the link. You have a great day.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:31 PM
    Reply

Still hard to stomach the 4 SEC teams.
I just don’t buy their narrative or the preseason poll positioning they use to establish a foothold in so many gullible people’s mind that they deserve all those top spots.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:36 PM
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While I have my share of animus toward the SEC narrative as well, statistically (and I wanted to remain true to my theme) it would be very difficult to not include those four based on the four categories I referenced in my original post. I wasn’t basing it on a narrative but on statistical team performance after seven games. That’s all.


Message was edited by: BigChief2000



Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[2]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:37 PM
    Reply

You’d still have wisky at 7?

You’re argument is valid except the pundits say the only reason is the crap schedule.

Actually, at this point in time it’s meaningless since so many teams still have to play, us included.

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Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:21 PM
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And pundits are biased ###### who don't acknowledge the crap schedules of Alabama and Ohio State!


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:34 PM
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The reason I would still have Wisconsin at 7 is purely due to their statistical team production (I wanted to be true to my original argument). If you look at the four categories I reference, Wisconsin ranks well in all four and better in most when compared to Florida, Oregon, or Auburn (who also have only one loss). That’s the only reason.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[2]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:51 PM
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The crap schedule bit is a LIE, based on games played so far.

Bama’s AVG opponent rank #69
LSU’s AVG opponent rank #70
Clemson’s AVG opponent rank #72
OSU’s AVG opponent rank #64

Not enough difference there to draw any conclusions based on strength of schedule.

Not sure why the liars on TV think none of their viewers have internet or can’t do 3rd grade arithmetic?


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:57 PM
    Reply

Very good point, sir, and I appreciate you referencing those schedule numbers. In my opinion, they also help support my original position that great teams will illustrate quality, team production. Ohio State and Clemson’s are both very good.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:46 PM
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This makes too much sense! I like it.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:54 PM
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If we’re ranking teams based only on stats then why not schedule nothing but cupcakes OOC and leave all starters in from start to finish every game?


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:31 PM
    Reply

If a team is superior, the stats will display such. Stats are a real indication of performance. I’m not dealing with individual stats, but team stats. If a team is really good, their performance will illustrate that. In the game of football (as with most team sports) statistics are the tools that are used to measure the success of a team based on their performance on the field, not some “eye test” or “gut feeling.” If Clemson were really as bad as some have suggested, the stats would be evident. Whether a team plays a “cupcake” or an “elite” team, their performance will be measured by stats (and points is a statistic, ultimately, and points determine victories from losses). So, while some great teams may not lead any particular offensive or defensive team statistic, NO TEAM will be great and have both mediocre offensive and defensive stats. My entire point was that there are only TWO teams in America that currently are Top 10, statistically, in the four most important categories of the game (how productive the offense is for the ENTIRE game, how productive the defense is for the ENTIRE game, how many points a teams scores per game, and how many points a team surrenders in a game). Those statistics will ultimately tell you who is best and who is not, and after seven games, of a typical 12 game regular season, one can deduce who is actually good and who is not. Ohio State and Clemson are very, very good, so far, in 2019. The stats illustrate that, and the CFP committee will see that. That’s why Clemson will be in the Top 4 in two weeks, provided they beat both Boston College and Wofford with the same type of statistical production of the first seven games. It would be illogical not to include them.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 10:58 PM
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Switch Wisconsin and Oregon and it’s spot on.


I think the polls are too subjective this early in the year.

[1]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:10 PM
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SOS means little if anything because SOS changes every week as games are registered. Offensive and defensive stats mean just as little because some teams play the better teams on their schedule earlier than others.

We know the ESPiN talking heads love the 'eye test,' which is useless due to being purely subjective. When the regular season is over there's enough stats to make them useful, the main one being the W/L record.

Imo, any team which can still win its conference championship can be put anywhere in the top ten. How anyone chooses to rank either of them is fine with me. Those teams which can't win the CCG should be moved down and out of the way. That would simplify the mid season process.

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Re: I think the polls are too subjective this early in the year.


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 12:06 AM
    Reply

You make an excellent point about the variance of SOS, but I have to disagree with your second point. To me, we have reached far enough into this season to be able to determine who is good and who is not based on team statistics. After 7 games, even if your SOS is lower or worse than others, you will have played enough of a mixture of teams to determine whether you are good offensively and defensively. I think this is valid even if you are playing lesser opponents because some of those lesser opponents on your schedule will naturally be better than other lesser opponents on your schedule. If you are hanging 50 on every opponent and only surrendering 10 per game, you have a very good team regardless of the conference you’re from or teams you play.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)

[1]
Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:20 PM
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Ohio State has played NO ONE AT ALL. NO ONE

just stop it. Stop.

2019 orange level member


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:46 PM
    Reply

I’m no fan of Ohio State either, but to deny their quality is to whistle past the graveyard. While we both may not like Ohio State, after seven games, they are most certainly one of the four best teams in the country. And, based in the four statistical categories I referenced in my original post, they should be number 1 in the nation.


Message was edited by: BigChief2000



Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:34 PM
    Reply

You also picked the two teams that have had the easiest schedule so far . . of the top 6 or 7 teams. So even though you are using hard facts, those facts are effected by the opponent, for sure. As unbiased as I can possibly be, at this point I would have LSU #1, then Bama, then Clemson, then OhioSt/Okla tie. Not going by anything but what has happened on the field.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:43 PM
    Reply

While I can understand your inclusion of LSU at #1 (based on their schedule and offensive production) why would you have Alabama ahead of Clemson? From a schedule standpoint, both Alabama and Clemson’s strength of schedule are VERY close and comparable to each other. While Alabama places higher, offensively, than Clemson in the four categories I reference, defensively, Alabama is lacking. There is absolutely no logical reason, whatsoever, that Alabama should be ranked ahead of Clemson.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 20, 2019 11:59 PM
    Reply

I don’t know how to measure LSU’s SOS with complete accuracy. How do we measure LSU’s win over NW ST? A winless (0-7) FCS team. We could call them #130, but since they haven’t won against any FCS teams, that’s probably overrating them.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 6:02 AM
    Reply

I like it.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 7:27 AM
    Reply

You make a very convincing argument, but the pollsters don't care about stats,( except for wins and losses).
They look at the other team's record when you play(again wins and losses)and how many of your wins came across teams with winning records.
Come November, the only poll that matters is the CFP rankings. If Clemson wins out, they are in, but as I said in a previous post, lose, and you snooze in January.


tOSU schedule = Strong FPI = AP Love


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 7:44 AM
    Reply

tOSU schedule

FAU @ tOSU
CIN @ tOSU
@ IND
Miami Ohio @ tOSU
@ NEB
#25 MSU @ tOSU
@ NW

With match-ups like that it's no wonder they have a strong FPI

Pretty sure if they were playing PSU at Happy Valley on 11-23 tOSU would lose.

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Re: tOSU schedule = Strong FPI = AP Love


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 9:46 AM
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Just out of curiosity, who has Clemson played that make our schedule better than that? Sure, it’s not great, but you’ve got to respect the way they’ve been crushing every opponent.


You used the words "wretched" and "animus" in this thread.

[1]
Posted: Oct 21, 2019 8:29 AM
    Reply

You aren't from around here, are you? ;)

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Re: You used the words "wretched" and "animus" in this thread.


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 1:14 PM
    Reply

What you talkin’ bout’ Willis? I was born and partially raised in Spartanburg, but I grew up just across the state line in the magical land of Polk County, NC. I resides for 14 years in the lovely mountain town of Franklin, NC, and now I live in Statesvegas (a.k.a., Statesville, NC). I’m a Carolina boy, born and bred. However, I do like to use “big” words. Haha.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 9:01 AM
    Reply

While I want to agree with you, several years ago the pundits chose to leave Bama at #1 even though CLEMSON was outperforming them in every way, simply because - they have to remain at #1 until some team beats them. That was then, but they changed their rule now that CLEMSON is #1 and nobody has beaten this team. I contend that the rule should remain the same. Until some team manages to beat #1 CLEMSON, then CLEMSON should remain #1. 'nuff said.


Re: Why Clemson should be #2 (factual argument)


Posted: Oct 21, 2019 9:11 AM
    Reply

Would be good if they did all the stats after each quarter of play...


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