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Which top four team has had the toughest schedule so far?
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Which top four team has had the toughest schedule so far?


Oct 16, 2018, 8:38 PM

Clemson so far has had the toughest schedule among the top four – here is proof

Each week, the USA Today ranks all college teams from 1 to 130. This week’s rankings can be found here https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/10/15/ncaa-re-rank-college-football-upsets-create-top-four-playoff/1643949002/.

Since I had a little spare time today, I developed some statistics based on these rankings in the attached spreadsheet. If you look at all the games that each of the four teams have played (Bama, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Clemson), the average rank of the competition is 55 for the Tigers followed by ND (59), Bama (74) and Ohio State (76). Clearly the Tigers have had the toughest schedule. However, in calculating the rankings, I did not take Furman’s ranking into account as they are not ranked.

This may seem unfair. So, I dropped the highest ranking (worst) team that each of the other teams have played and recalculated the averages; i.e., I removed Louisville from Alabama’s schedule, Ball State from Notre dame’s schedule, and Oregon State from Ohio State’s schedule. The resulting rankings are: Notre Dame (51), Tigers (55), Ohio State and Bama (68) – only slightly better for ND compared to the Tigers.

If you look at the won lost records/winning percentage of all the teams that the top four teams have played (won-lost; winning percentage): Clemson opponents (20-12; 63%), ND opponents (26-20; 57%), Bama opponents (22-24; 48%), and Ohio State opponents (18-26; 41%). Finally, if I take the weakest team out that the other three teams have played (as before), the won lost records/winning percentages of the opponents are: Clemson opponents (20-12; 63%), ND opponents (23-16; 59%), Bama opponents (19-21; 48%), and Ohio State opponents (17-20; 46%).

Of course, this is not conclusive, but it does show that, on average, the Tigers may have been playing the tougher teams, and that teams like Georgia Southern may actually be better than other well-known teams like Louisville etc.

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Re: Which top four team has had the toughest schedule so far?


Oct 16, 2018, 8:41 PM

Trying to attach the file

:)

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I like the stats. One note.


Oct 16, 2018, 9:34 PM

your numbers for the cumulative records for the Tigers with and without their weakest competition are the same ... Furman's record -- 2-3 ... AFTER beating my Terriers last week :( -- should be removed.

Thanks for the time and effort!

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“Clemson wasn’t that much better with Trevor Lawrence, if at all.”


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