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Topic: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?
Replies: 42   Last Post: Nov 21, 2019 12:31 PM by: Buckeye Tiger®
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What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 11:54 AM
 

I get all the frustration with the committee but really the only ranking that matters is the last one. Is there a playoff that you think was way wrong in the past few years?

null


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 11:55 AM
 

No.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?

[2]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:21 PM
 

I think the best team has won it every year. I’m 100% certain that the playoff committee has been 100% wrong about which team is the best team before the playoffs start. 5 years, 5 wrongly placed number #1’s.

Given that the committee has been wrong about the #1 team EVERY YEAR, is it reasonable to assume that is the ONLY thing they been wrong about? I say NO, that is not a reasonable assumption.

I say they are guessing. I say they are guessing with their biases on full display and their biases make their guesses look stupid.

2020 orange level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?

[1]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:25 PM
 

I would say Clemson with DW4 was the best team the year we lost to Bama.

2020 orange level member

That's because seeding and most of the playoff selections

[5]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:03 PM
 

are based on resume. Resume is not a great way to predict who will win a game. If the committee was interested in seeding the 4 teams according to who had the best chance to win then they would use Vegas odds.

FWIW Bama would've been the #1 seed every year Clemson has made the playoff. This year the seeding of the current top 4 would be 1) Ohio State, 2) Clemson, 3) LSU, 4) Georgia.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?

[2]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:08 PM
 

Truthfully, TCU in 2014. Dropped from 3rd to 5th for blowing out Iowa State 55-3. Only loss was a road game at #5 Baylor. 4 wins vs top 25 compared to only 2 wins (including the B10 CG) by 31-0hio State.

Moral to the story, since 2014, the CFP committee prefers losing at home by 14 to an unranked team rather than a last second 3 point loss to a top 5 team on the road.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:50 PM
 

I think the moral to that story is have a conference championship game. That was the ultimate decider in OSU getting in with a similar record.

I think Bama in the 2017 season is about the only one I disagreed with at the time, but they ended up winning, so I guess I was wrong.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 1:34 PM
 

I agree, 2014 and 2017 are the 2 years where I thought they got the #4 team wrong. Both years, the #4 team won it all. Shows what I know.

I've said since the beginning, any undefeated, P5 conference champ should be in. If you lose a game, you no longer really have an argument. At that point, it's in the hands of the committee whether you make it or not.

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That would encourage teams to play a bunch of nobodys


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:53 PM
 

out of conference.


Re: That would encourage teams to play a bunch of nobodys


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 11:08 AM
 

Not really, because if you do end up with a loss, playing decent teams out of conference will help your resume and potentially push you to the front of the one loss teams. It also boosts resumes among the undefeated teams (see LSU being ranked over OSU when OSU has looked much better)

Most of the losses from the top contenders are in conference, not out of conference. Only Oregon has their loss out of conference (that I can think of). It's still hard to go undefeated for 13 straight games.

My point isn't that a 1-loss team shouldn't get in (they do every year), I'm just saying they shouldn't get in over an undefeated P5 team. There are enough decent teams in every P5 league to justify getting in if you are undefeated.

Even the "terrible" ACC isn't as bad as the talking heads would have you think. Clemson just makes the rest of the league look even worse than it is. If Wake, Pitt, VT, and UVA were in the SEC, they'd probably be all be ranked (at least some of them would be).

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Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 1:46 PM
 

However, the NCAA did not allow 10 team conferences to have a championship game at that time. It wasn't until 2015 that the B12 partnered with (ironically) the ACC to abolish the 12 minimum requirement.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 2:17 PM
 

True. I think the Big 12 should have done a bit better when they were getting raided, but probably didn’t know at the time how the CFP committee was going to evaluate and what they would consider at the time. In the end, I think the lack of a title game was what did them in, especially given the show OSU put on in the B10 championship.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 2:50 PM
 

But TCU and 31-0hio even had a common "decent 8-5"opponent.

TCU over Minnesota 30-7
31-0 over Minnesota 31-24

What really happened wasn't a metric of the teams, but rather the false narrative of a "name brand" program vs a "upcomer" former group of 5 program. Realistically, TCU had a better resume than any other 1 loss team that year... with the exception of maybe Baylor that upset TCU. The second to last week even had TCU above a undefeated FSU in the CFP.

Sure you can say the 31-0 win over Wisc was decent, but TCU would later obliterate a much stronger opponent (a cheatin' Ole Miss) 42-3 (that beat Alabama).

TCU was the only "1 loss" team that year that lost the game on the last play game and ironically was up 21 points in the 4th. Everyone else lost by more than a FG often earlier in the game.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:00 PM
 

Doc, that’s a fair and true, but dint overlook the fact that TCU and Baylor were co-champions with no conference championship game to determine who was where. It’s possible they got in over Ohio State if they had that 13th game. Also Ohio State ran through the playoff in dominant fashion so, we’re they really wrong for outing them in at #4?

If anything, FSU was the team that shouldn’t have been there that year, but were undefeated and could not be excluded.

Fact of the matter is that there will be debatable points and teams every year. This is why we will ultimately end up with expansion.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:27 PM
 

But there can (and is) a difference in playing someone at home, in Texas, in September vs. playing on the road, outdoors in Minnesota, in November. Margin of victory is easy to look at but unless you watch the games, you can't fairly draw comparisons. Bottom line is I don't subscribe to a conspiracy theory to keep TCU out. That OSU blowout was the freshest thing on their minds, and that extra game and they way they played in it helped their cause immensely. They were looking at team down to its 3rd string QB and decided that they were better overall than TCU, and heck, even Baylor was as well as the final ranking would reflect.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:01 PM
 

That is why the committee got it wrong with TCU. One game unduly influenced an entire body of work. TCU has a legitimate argument that they were the best 1-loss team... not just for the 4th spot. Any spot since they dropped FSU to #3 and had two 1 loss teams ahead of FSU. Alabama might have claimed a better win over MSU before bowl season but MSU turned out to be a turnip. You could have made the argument of TCU over Oregon. The problem being that B12 could not have declared one (TCU or Baylor) as a Champion as it was not determined in their bylaws before season play. They were stuck.

31-0 winning the CFP does not justify the selection process. That is a variant argumentum ad consequentiam. That could easily be a false I would also point to 2011 "selection" of Alabama over OkState (another injustice) does not justify Alabama being the right pick either. This isn't a 2017 Bama/Georgia or similar situation where Bama was only Wisc to vie for the 4th spot (obviously they were not going to take Wisc at that point.

It wasn't a conspiracy to keep TCU out but rather collusion to keep specific powers in the running/media cycle. We see that with Ped State in the previous top 4 and even SoCal in the top 25 with 4 loses. I think most Clemson folks can attest to that narrative.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:09 PM
 

FutureDoc said:

This isn't a 2017 Bama/Georgia or similar situation where Bama was only Wisc to vie for the 4th spot




UCF would like a word with you :P

2020 white level member

TCU didn’t get in for 1 reason. Baylor


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:46 PM
 

Their lone loss was 61-58 at Baylor in a game they had a large lead in. By every other metric TCU was the better team than Baylor but you couldn’t really put 11-1 TCU in over an 11-1 Baylor when head to head was a factor. So it was out in both or neither


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:48 PM
 

To me, this is the year that aggravates me the most. If the rankings ignored the championship games, it would have been Auburn instead of Alabama. So, Auburn was punished for playing in it. Further, I contend Alabama would have lost if they had actually played in the SECCG as they were so beat up. The argument would be that the committee got it right because they won it all, but to me it is just wrong - rewarded for not playing and an extra week off.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:07 PM
 

But the committee has shown that it doesnt really care that much about a conference championship game. In the last 4 playoffs a team has gotten in that didn't have to play a 13th game.

2020 student level member

Brad Brownell: more losses than any other coach in school history.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:12 PM
 

I certainly think it does when comparing teams with equal records/losses. If someone wins a conference with 1 loss vs someone who doesn't with 1 loss, the champion is going to get stronger consideration.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 7:42 AM
 

No it was not the deciding factor it was just the excuse du jour. If conference championships were important then why did Ohio State go the year of the 31-0 beatdown? Penn State had the head to head and the conference championship. Ohio State should not have been in it either year, but their name like Alabama in 2017 got them there. Everybody wants to scream that the fact that Ohio State won the first year proved the committee right. The fact is, they didn't play TCU.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 12:22 PM
 

Because Ohio State had 1 loss and PSU had 2. Conference championships are certainly a differentiating factor, but especially when teams have equal records/losses/resumes. That's why 1 loss conference champion OSU got in over 1 loss Baylor and 1 loss TCU in 2014. OSU and PSU did not have equal records in 2016.

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?

[2]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:11 PM
 

The CFP committee has done a very good job of choosing the 4 teams. The CFP process was a huge step forward for college football.

I don't like the NCAA any more than anyone else but there is no pleasing some people.

If the limit remains 4 teams, can someone suggest a better method?


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 7:50 AM
 

I don't have a problem with 4 teams or the method. I have a problem with the committee's consistency and transparency. It appears to me that they choose who they want and then find a reason to justify it. They have guidelines, but they only seem to be followed when they want to. They should keep a complete set of minutes in the meetings and publish them for the public. If we can see what was said, then we can see if they are adhering to the process.


One loss bama did not deserve to get in over 2 loss Ohio state champion***


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:43 PM
 



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Re: One loss bama did not deserve to get in over 2 loss Ohio state champion***

[1]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 1:42 PM
 

I personally disagree with that...one of OH State's 2 losses was a 31 point loss to unranked Iowa. If you lose by that much to an unranked team, you aren't one of the best 4.


Re: One loss bama did not deserve to get in over 2 loss Ohio state champion***


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 7:53 AM
 

Why should Alabama not be viewed as having 2 losses? They basically forfeited their conference championship.


I would have done it different in the last 3

[1]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 12:59 PM
 

OSU instead of ND last year

OSU instead of bama in 17

Pen State instead of OSU in 2016


Conference champs play a big role to me.


There's really no way they could've left Bama out last year


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:07 PM
 

They would basically have to kick ND out of the NCAA to do that, and that's never going to happen.

2020 white level member

Oops, meant ND not Bama***


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:07 PM
 



2020 white level member

The first year I have had an issue was this year. ***


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 1:44 PM
 



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But the question was whether you had a problem


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:09 PM
 

with the final four or the four that actually made it.

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I gave you enough info to answer the question.***


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:56 PM
 



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I remember now. You’re a philosopher.;)


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:00 PM
 

You gave me too much info. because the final 4 for this year haven’t been selected.

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I told everyone that I only had a problem with this year.


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 9:19 PM
 

From that you can deduce that my opinion is that none of the final 4's I had a problem with.

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Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:03 PM
 

I really thought the whole purpose of the playoff was to make sure we did not end up with 3 undefeated teams at the end of the year and only 2 could play in the BCS game. I don't like the whole "4 best teams" analysis. If you don't win your conference you better hope some Conference champ has two losses, otherwise it should be 4 conference champs each year.

And screw Notre Dame if they want to stay an Independent.


Nope. Ohio State proved they had the best team in 2014.

[1]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:08 PM
 

Bama proved they had the best team in 2017.

I get the conference champ thing but because of conferences schools play unequal schedules.

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Ohio State had 2 losses instead of 1.


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 7:27 AM
 

Otherwise it would have been different IMO.

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The committee's job is to rank resumes. This is different


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 3:39 PM
 

than the old days of ranking teams based upon wins and loss records.

Ranking a 11-1 team with a loss in September ahead of another 11-1 team with a loss in November is over.

The old way of ranking teams encouraged teams to not play anyone. And if they did play a big game it was to be be in October or earlier so they could "recover" in the polls should they lose. This was bad for TV revenue.

I think everyone in the country knows that Clemson has the best team in the country. It is just that due to Texas A&M and the ACC being down we have the 3rd best "resume".


Take for example the 2017 season. Alabama lost their last game of the season to Auburn, but still had the best team in the country. Their resume was just barley good enough to be in the top 4. That stunk for Clemson who had the best "resume" in the country that year, but had a first round match-up with Bama in the Sugar Bowl.


Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:06 PM
 

2 years ago UCF should have been in.


So far, in every year of the CFP...

[2]
Posted: Nov 20, 2019 4:10 PM
 

A team that has been selected for the final 4 has won the national championship.

Hard to argue with that!

2020 white level member

Re: What final four has the committee gotten wrong?


Posted: Nov 21, 2019 8:07 AM
 

ESPN and the SEC is what is wrong with the CFP. They throw out undeserved high rankings to the SEC teams at the beginning of the season, even though they just performed poorly in their last bowl game, and that high ranking is used throughout the season to unjustly prop up the SEC teams. The other teams have to go undefeated to even be considered into the CFP, while the SEC teams are guaranteed a slot in the CFP with 1-loss. Any non-SEC team with 1-loss is always considered to be like an SEC team with TWO LOSSES. Until the CFP stops drinking the SEC koolaid and actually uses the conference champions to make the CFP, then things will not change. Only conference champions should be considered into the CFP, and that would stop all the nonsense about trying to get two SEC teams into the CFP, thereby almost guaranteeing another National Championship from that conference. It needs to stop.


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