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Topic: Weekly Stats that make me feel better
Replies: 3   Last Post: Nov 11, 2018 12:32 AM by: Lakedude
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Weekly Stats that make me feel better

[5]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 4:09 PM
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Comparison of BC and Clemson against their average opponents for the 8 FBS games they've played using the normal stats (Some rounded), with A SPECIAL SURPRISE STAT AT THE END (Oooooooh!)

Total Offense
CU averages 538 YPG (7th) against their opponent's average total defense of 406 YPG (74th)
BC averages 440 YPG (40th) against their opponent's average total defense of 413 YPG (82nd)

Rushing Offense
CU averages 265 YPG (7th) against their opponent's average rushing defense of 156 YPG (55th)
BC averages 226 YPG (23rd) against their opponent's average rushing defense of 185 YPG (76th)

Passing Offense
CU averages 273 YPG (29th) against their opponent's average passing defense of 251 YPG (88th)
BC averages 215 YPG (83rd) against their opponent's average passing defense of 227 YPG (66th)

Total Defense
CU allows 269 YPG (3rd) against their opponent's average total offense of 419 YPG (57th)
BC allows 374 YPG (49th) against their opponent's average total offense of 428 YPG (50th)

Rushing Defense
CU allows 90 YPG (6th) against their opponent's average rushing offense of 197 YPG (59th)
BC allows 152 YPG (55th) against their opponent's average rushing offense of 160 YPG (79th)

Passing Defense
CU allows 179 YPG (18th) against their opponent's average passing offense of 222 YPG (61st)
BC allows 222 YPG (56th) against their opponent's average passing offense of 268 YPG (44th)

Scoring Offense
CU averages 48 PPG (4th) against their opponent's average scoring defense of 29 PPG (63rd)
BC averages 37 PPG (23rd) against their opponent's average scoring defense of 30 PPG (78th)

Scoring Defense
CU allows 13 PPG (4th) against their opponent's average scoring offense of 32 PPG (55th)
BC allows 24 PPG (47th) against their opponent's average scoring offense of 31 PPG (50th)

Tackles for Loss
CU averages 9.9 TFL (2nd) against their opponent's average TFL allowed of 6.53 TFL (78th)
BC averages 7.1 TFL (28th) against their opponent's average TFL allowed of 6.05 (70th)

Tackles for Loss Allowed
CU allows 3.44 TFL (4th) against their opponent's average TFL of 5.6 TFL (75th)
BC allows 6.0 TFL (69th) against their opponent's average TFL of 6.0 (74th)

Third Down Conversion Offense
CU averages .461 on 3rd Downs (19th) against their opponent's 3rd Downs allowed of .379 (63rd)
BC averages .350 on 3rd Downs (104th) against their opponent's 3rd Downs allowed of .378 (63rd)

Third Down Conversion Defense
CU allows .280 on 3rd Downs (8th) against their opponent's 3rd Down rate of .398 (67th)
BC allows .372 on 3rd Downs (51st) against their opponent's 3rd Down rate of .412 (55th)

And now THE SURPRISE STAT (Ohhhhh...Oh never mind)

I was checking Saragin for strength of schedule (BC is 33rd and we're 50th).

I saw the Predictor stat which is proclaimed to be a good measure of the margin of victory (MOV). I compared the actual scores from the games and the delta of the Predictor numbers and came up with the following:

Boston College (Predictor 79.30)
UMass - Actual MOV was 34 and Predictor MOV was 28
Wake - Actual MOV was 7 and Predictor MOV was 13
Purdue - Actual MOV was -17 and Predictor MOV was -2
Temple - Actual MOV was 10 and Predictor MOV was 7
NC ST - Actual MOV was -5 and Predictor MOV was -0.44
Louisville - Actual MOV was 18 and Predictor MOV was 17
Miami - Actual MOV was 13 and Predictor MOV was -0.27
Va Tech - Actual MOV was 10 and Predictor MOV was 6

Clemson (Predictor 99.73)
TX A&M - Actual MOV was 2 and Predictor MOV was 17
GA Southern - Actual MOV was 31 and Predictor MOV was 36
GA Tech - Actual MOV was 28 and Predictor MOV was 23
Syracuse - Actual MOV was 4 and Predictor MOV was 24
Wake - Actual MOV was 60 and Predictor MOV was 33
NC ST - Actual MOV was 34 and Predictor MOV was 20
FL ST - Actual MOV was 49 and Predictor MOV was 28
Louisville - Actual MOV was 61 and Predictor MOV was 38

The predictor was close on most games, correct on the two BC losses and only wrong once, on the Miami game where the difference was only -0.27.

Using the predictor for our game, we win by 20.

Go Tigers!


Re: Weekly Stats that make me feel better


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 7:22 PM
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Twenty point win, you say??? Good enough!!! I'll take it every time.


Bump. I’m blinding me with science


Posted: Nov 11, 2018 12:24 AM
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I must be killing Vegas


Science!***


Posted: Nov 11, 2018 12:32 AM
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