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Topic: We are going to be in the tourney
Replies: 22   Last Post: Mar 15, 2019 10:25 PM by: CmoneyTiger
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Replies: 22  

We are going to be in the tourney

[2]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:25 AM
    Reply

Top 30 BPI, KenPom, and Saragin.
We have a better conference record than most of the bubble teams.
Lipscomb beat TCU and we beat Lipscomb
Florida went 1-3 against USC, UGA, and RAY
We went 2-2
Belmont beat Lipscomb by 2 and 4 we beat them by double digits.
OSU has a better record against common opponents so they will be in over us imo.


Re: We are going to be in the tourney

[4]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:27 AM
    Reply

And then you woke up


We won’t be here for your pity party

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:29 AM
    Reply

When we’re left out Sunday night


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:34 AM
    Reply

I won't be too upset. We had chances to earn it and didn't but look at the numbers. What bubble teams do you think should be in over us and why?


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:40 AM
    Reply

Honestly I have no idea. I think there’s just a huge mess of bubble teams that all have arguments over one another and I really don’t know what the committee is going to put value on and what they’re not.

All I know is we had several chances to win our way into the field and didn’t take advantage so I’m not getting my hopes up.

If we do sneak in I will be happy and think the way the team is set up we could beat just about anyone or lose to just about anyone.


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:45 AM
    Reply

The big problem is the ACC is very top heavy this year. It’s usually 2-3 elite teams and 8-9 really good teams. This season it’s 3 elite teams , 2 really good teams and the rest bad to AVG.
They will not take 9 ACC teams this season, with what 4-5 really bad teams in the league.
We had 1 Q1 win this season and that’s not enough.


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:51 AM
    Reply

I agree we should have more quad 1 wins but that is not the only factor. We are better than almost any other bubble team in conference record, quad 3 and 4 Ls, BPI, NET, Saragin, and Kenpom. All of those are factors.


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 2:47 PM
    Reply

Yes but our conference record is better because we beat Pittx2, GTX2, WF, BC, ND. That's 7 wins vs teams going nowhere. Syracuse and VT are the only good wins.


Re: We won’t be here for your pity party


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:55 AM
    Reply

I agree we should have more quad 1 wins but that is not the only factor. We are better than almost any other bubble team in conference record, quad 3 and 4 Ls, BPI, NET, Saragin, and Kenpom. All of those are factors.


Re: We are going to be in the tourney

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 11:32 AM
    Reply

FSU not RAY lol


1-9 against tier 1 teams will be downfall***

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 12:13 PM
    Reply



badge-donor-05yr.jpg2005_majors_champ.jpgbadge-ringofhonor-xtiger.jpg


Re: 1-9 against tier 1 teams will be downfall***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 12:32 PM
    Reply

1-10 now lol so could be for sure. Hopefully NET and computer rankings mean more to the committee.


I'd be shocked if we make it***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 12:31 PM
    Reply



2019 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg


Why is that? Have you seen the rankings?

[2]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 12:50 PM
    Reply

We are in great shape if you consider:

-Our NET ranking
-Our KenPom ranking
-Our overall and conference records
-Our record over the last 12 games of the season

If the committee values overall body of work and consistency, we're in no problem. However, if all they care about are a couple of marquee wins, and prioritize that over bad losses and overall/conference record, then we won't be in.

All we've heard is how important the NET is. Metrics like that are likely to take precedence over a team having a big win in December.

2019 white level member

Re: Why is that? Have you seen the rankings?

[2]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 12:53 PM
    Reply

We will surely find our if NET ranking means anything at all. Would be nice if we had a couple more quad 1 wins but I think the committee will see how close we were to have 4 or 5. If we are left out tho conference record and computer rankings mean nothing. It is all about quad 1 wins.


Re: Why is that? Have you seen the rankings?

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 2:48 PM
    Reply

Thanks Brad


Re: We are going to be in the tourney

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 1:41 PM
    Reply

The way things have played out, there's at least a chance.

NC State gets in over us handily. I think Florida probably does too.

We'll be hanging around that TCU/Temple/Belmont/UNCG/Saint John's bubble. TCU and StJ getting wrecked in conference tourneys certainly helped. I think we all need to be Wheat Shockers fans tonight, because a Temple loss may open another potential at large spot up. I tend to think that Alabama will be slightly favored over us though, because of the win over Kentucky. It's a weak bubble, sure, but we're a weak team.

At the end of the day, the simple fact is we're 1-10 against Quad1 and have demonstrated an almost otherworldly ability to never win close games. Like it or not, the committee will consider that. It isn't just going to be "man, check out that KenPom ranking let's slot them in!"


Well, Florida just beat LSU AGAIN, definitely in over us!!***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 3:10 PM
    Reply



2019 white level member

Re: Well, Florida just beat LSU AGAIN, definitely in over us!!***

[1]
Posted: Mar 15, 2019 3:13 PM
    Reply

Florida locking down a spot, and VCU getting bumped to at-large is all she wrote on our tournament chances, I think. We're one of 8 teams fighting for essentially two spots at this point. There's a chance, but it's a scant one.


Re: Well, Florida just beat LSU AGAIN, definitely in over us!!***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 4:44 PM
    Reply

Florida was already in. VCU doesn't hurt us unless Davidson doesn't win the A-10. They are both locks most likely just don't need Davidson to lose. Florida and NCST are in so 6 sports open for the bubble teams imo. Seton Hall probably is in so maybe only 5.


Re: Well, Florida just beat LSU AGAIN, definitely in over us!!***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 5:32 PM
    Reply

Davidson was not in and the win cost someone lost an at large


Re: Well, Florida just beat LSU AGAIN, definitely in over us!!***


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 10:25 PM
    Reply

Well heck lol. I will be okay with us not getting in but not if TCU or Texas does. I would understand most of the others. We did need some better wins but our metrics are still good so I believe we have a chance.


Re: We are going to be in the tourney


Posted: Mar 15, 2019 3:44 PM
    Reply

I think we are out now sadly.

2019 white level member

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