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Topic: The truth about Boston College....
Replies: 18   Last Post: Nov 8, 2018 1:59 PM by: FLTiger87
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The truth about Boston College....

[19]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 10:58 AM
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After seeing the spread on the Boston College game I decided to see why Vegas thinks we are 17.5 favorites. Before I dig into this, I'm not bashing Boston College - they are a good team, playing good football right now and have a tough, get after it attitude that reflects highly on their coaching staff.

Notice I said Boston College is a good ball team - but they are not a great ball team. Here is what they have accomplished this year:

They have beaten 2 teams with a winning record, 1 even team, and 4 losing teams this year. Against Power 5 competition, they have beaten 1 winning team, 1 even team, and 2 losing teams. The combined record of the teams they have beaten is 38 wins to 42 losses which gives them an average opponent winning record of .475 (i.e. less than 50%).

Boston College has a 60% win record against Power 5 teams. Their Power 5 opponents have been Wake Forest, Purdue, NC State, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech. They have lost 2 of those 5 games (Purdue (5-4 record), NC State (6-2 record).

Boston College's Total Offense ranking is 40 (440.1 ypg). The average Total Offense team ranking Boston college has beaten is 59.67
Boston College's Total Defense ranking is 49 (373.6 ypg). The average Total Defense team ranking Boston college has beaten is 82.00

Boston College's QB (Anthony Brown) completes 57.9% of his passes which ranks him as 78th in the country (121 completions/ 209 attempts).

Boston's premiere running back AJ Dillon ranks 54th in rushing yards with 162 carries for 897 yards (5.54 yards per carry).

Boston College's best home win is against Miami who has a 5-4 record, the 76th ranked Offense, and 2nd ranked Defense.
Boston College's best road win is against Virginia Tech who has a 4-4 record, the 47th ranked Offense, and the 90th ranked Defense.


Let's compare all of this to Clemson:

Clemson is undefeated, having beaten 5 teams with winning records, 1 even team and 3 losing teams. Against Power 5 competition Clemson has beaten 4 winning teams and 3 losing teams. The combined record of the teams Clemson has beaten is 44 wins to 35 loses which gives Clemson an average opponent record of .557 (greater than 50%).

Clemson has a 100% win record against Power 5 teams.

Clemson's Total Offense ranking is 7 (538 ypg). The average Total Offense team ranking of Clemson's opponents is 56.75.
Clemson's Total Defense ranking is 3 (269.2 ypg). The average Total Defense team ranking of Clemson's opponents is 73.63

Trevor Lawrence completes 65.40% of his passes which ranks him as 24th in the country (123 completions/ 188 attempts).
Travis Etienne ranks 3rd in rushing yards with 116 carries for 998 yards (8.6 yards per carry).

Clemson's best home win is against Syracuse who has a 7-2 record, the 15th ranked Offense, and 98th ranked Defense.
Clemson's best road win is against Texas A&M who has a 5-4 record, the 25th ranked Offense, and the 21st ranked Defense.

Conclusion:
BC has not faced a team anywhere close to the overall caliber of Clemson this year. Every statistical category that I look at (including Rushing Defense/Offense, Passing Defense/Offense) comparing Clemson and Boston College - it all favors Clemson and not by a little. While Boston College has always been a tough, gritty team, there is a reason we are 17.5 favorites - the talent difference between the two teams is not small. As long as Clemson doesn't have numerous turnovers and executes to our standard, Clemson will convincingly win this game.

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Good stuff


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:05 AM
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Just wondering how BC matched up against #9 USC when they beat them in 2014.

Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!

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Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!


Re: Good stuff


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:07 AM
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I honestly remember very little about this game. Was it early in the season? How did both teams do after that game to finish out their seasons?


That was the 3rd game of the year for both teams...

[1]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:12 AM
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Over the next ten games, BC would compile a record of 5 - 5 including a loss to Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Southern Cal would win seven of its next ten games including a win against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.

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Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.


Re: Good stuff


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:50 AM
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Just wondering how BC matched up against #9 USC when they beat them in 2014.

Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!



Don't know but I do know that 5 weeks later on October 18th, 2014 the 24th ranked Tigers went into Alumni Stadium and beat those same Boston College Eagles. I wonder how many current BC football players played in that 2014 #9 USC game. My guess is none but I could be wrong...

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My point was that the game still

[1]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 12:10 PM
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has to be played. Any team can be beat on any given day (especially if you're one of "the hunted" -- ask VA Tech when they played Old Dominion). Playing at BC at night as the #2 team in the nation, these are the numbers that need to be "crunched". I wasn't criticizing your work - good job.

Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!

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Go Tigers AND Tiger Nation!


I like how you felt the need to tell us that


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:24 AM
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.475 is less than 50% and that .557 is greater than 50%??


Re: I like how you felt the need to tell us that


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:32 AM
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It's important to always know the ability of your audience. He dun gud on this won.


You obviously aren't from the Kommie Kore Math era.***


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 1:57 PM
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Re: The truth about Boston College....


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:34 AM
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There are lies, /$&@ lies and statistics. These numbers are predictors that have no bearing on future results. Let’s just play the actual games with emotion rather than rest on cold, computerized analysis. I hope we play great and win by whatever the score ends up being. These numbers take some of the pure emotional joy from sports. Remember the fun is in the winning, not culling data.

2018 purple level member

Re: The truth about Boston College....

[2]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:40 AM
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Calhoun2® said:

There are lies, /$&@ lies and statistics. These numbers are predictors that have no bearing on future results. Let’s just play the actual games with emotion rather than rest on cold, computerized analysis. I hope we play great and win by whatever the score ends up being. These numbers take some of the pure emotional joy from sports. Remember the fun is in the winning, not culling data.



What can I say - I'm a Clemson Engineer that likes looking at the numbers in addition to the art of Clemson football!

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Re: The truth about Boston College....

[1]
Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:47 AM
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Yep I’m an Aerospace Engineer and when I coached youth football I broke down all of our games play by play, yard by yard and love compiling stats. But with college football I only look at boxscores after the game to see total yards O and D, ypc, penalty and turnovers. Those last two can have the biggest effect on the outcome if other numbers are reasonably close, especially in road games. Check the Auburn - Texas A&M game for exhibit A. No way the Aggies should have dropped that one.

2018 purple level member

I liked it and just work around a bunch of Engineers.***


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 11:51 AM
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I liked it and used to work for the largest employer of EEs in SC but


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 12:20 PM
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I’m not an engineer. I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once!


Re: The truth about Boston College....


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 12:01 PM
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Awesome post, thanks! GO TIGERS!!


sounds like it should be higher. We’re both a lot


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 12:26 PM
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Better than 2016 when we rolled them.

It will be much like the NC State game. The fact is that we now have dominant stand-out players at every skill position, and the O-Line has improved, helped greatly by TL.

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Re: the coots are a good ball team


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 12:40 PM
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we just dont know yet good for what

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Re: The truth about Boston College....


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 1:54 PM
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Your analysis is spot on, as Dabo says, they are who they are and we are who we are at this point in the season. BC is certainly a tough nosed team and it will be cooler that what it is in the upstate of SC however, none of that will change the outcome. This team is the real deal, we don't need to score 40 points to win and BC is not going to line up and shove the ball down our throats for 60 minutes.

Its a 40 plus point win depending on how fast we start and finish


Boston College.... CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH


Posted: Nov 8, 2018 1:59 PM
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and CLEMSON is the TRUTH. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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