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Topic: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers
Replies: 23   Last Post: Jul 2, 2020 8:29 PM by: TigerzzRoar®
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Replies: 23  

For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[10]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 10:39 PM
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These are the most recent stats from the DHEC website. If you go to the county and zip code data page, they provide the number of confirmed cases in SC, the number of estimated cases, and the number of possible cases. Then, if you go to the Demographics page, they give the percentage breakdown of both existing cases and deaths by age group.

Based on that data, I calculated the mortality rate for each age group for known, estimated, and possible cases. This assumes that the age distribution for the estimated and possible cases would follow the same distribution as the known cases. There’s really no way to know for sure and the reality is the unknown cases are more likely to be in younger people. So that would further improve the mortality numbers for those age groups.

In any case, the stated mortality rate for the flu is 0.1%. Also, the flu tends to be more serious for younger patients than COVID-19. You can see the rates here and take them for what you will. For me, it reaffirms that we need to protect the older and other vulnerable health populations and at the same time, not have our hair on fire about everyone else. I think we can stay open and possibly have football and other sports if we look at the actual data and take appropriate precautions.

2020 orange level member

Or graphically.

[5]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:07 PM
    Reply

https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-USA/0100B5K8423/index.html


Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[3]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:21 PM
    Reply

I've given up on large sports and entertainment crowds happening the rest of the year .
Not a huge stretch , according to what I am hearing and reading it's almost a certainty now .

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DB23


No football...

[4]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:22 PM
    Reply

Means I’m setting up an autonomous zone somewhere. Just gotta figure out where.

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A bridge over I-85?***

[3]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:41 PM
    Reply



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Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[1]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:58 PM
    Reply

Yeah that’s kinda my point. It seems to be the self-perpetuating narrative, and once governments start closing stuff and leagues start cancelling seasons, nobody wants to be the odd man out for both political and liability reasons.

I am not minimizing the virus or saying to not follow recommended precautions. I am saying though that when you look at the actual, real numbers...there is a way to maybe manage this thing.

2020 orange level member

Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[2]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:37 PM
    Reply

Thank you for the statistics T3Tiger and you too BengalBilly.

I hope everyone has a great Fourth of July.

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Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[3]
Posted: Jul 1, 2020 11:44 PM
    Reply

T3Tiger® said:

These are the most recent stats from the DHEC website. If you go to the county and zip code data page, they provide the number of confirmed cases in SC, the number of estimated cases, and the number of possible cases. Then, if you go to the Demographics page, they give the percentage breakdown of both existing cases and deaths by age group.

Based on that data, I calculated the mortality rate for each age group for known, estimated, and possible cases. This assumes that the age distribution for the estimated and possible cases would follow the same distribution as the known cases. There’s really no way to know for sure and the reality is the unknown cases are more likely to be in younger people. So that would further improve the mortality numbers for those age groups.

In any case, the stated mortality rate for the flu is 0.1%. Also, the flu tends to be more serious for younger patients than COVID-19. You can see the rates here and take them for what you will. For me, it reaffirms that we need to protect the older and other vulnerable health populations and at the same time, not have our hair on fire about everyone else. I think we can stay open and possibly have football and other sports if we look at the actual data and take appropriate precautions.


They don’t want to hear it though. It’s a blend of technocrats who at this point can’t admit they blundered the whole thing by grossly exaggerating mortality rate (the two models that the shutdowns and panic were based on were debunked months ago, one by its own creator), media that is sticking fear for clicks and agenda (arguably more for agenda), and people who are willingly going along for said agenda or too prideful to change or to fearful to listen.


7/2 follow up... SC has highest day death total f/Covid: 24.

[3]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 12:49 AM
    Reply

Both hospitalizations and deaths have a 2-4 week lag factor...

I totally agree the early projections for deaths were highly elevated, but the current numbers aren't yet reflective of the recent increases.

Soon we'll get to see the effects of July 4th and it's August repercussions...

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Re: 7/2 follow up... SC has highest day death total f/Covid: 24.

[2]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 1:07 AM
    Reply

I agree they are going in the wrong direction. We've had a spike in cases though since Memorial Day...over 500/day since 6/8 and over 1,000/day since 6/18. Based on the hospitalization rates back in March/April, we should be putting 200-300/day in the hospital, but we're not. The high death number today was definitely a concern. The number seems to be all over the place though. We had 24 today, 18 the day before, 5 each of the two days before that, 15, and then just 1.

Even as of today, people over 60 are only 20% of the cases, but 87% of the deaths. 328 out of the 759 deaths have occurred in nursing homes in SC. 18 of the 24 deaths today were over 65.

So, it seems to me that we're still not doing a good enough job of protecting the elderly. Part of that is their own doing. I went to the Kroger yesterday to pick up prescriptions for my mother. The place was packed...many were elderly and some of those without masks. Obviously, the nursing homes are a different story, and that's just a sad situation.

2020 orange level member

Another problem...Over 2200 healthcare workers positive....***


Posted: Jul 2, 2020 7:29 AM
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Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[13]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 1:13 AM
    Reply

Facts are so nice an almost unheard of into today’s world. This really helps you narrow it down.

We took animals to a nursing home that hasn’t had visitors or interaction since February from family or anyone else.

It was amazing to see them light up at the sight of animals and many got to visit & pet them. They were really good about masking up as we did with distancing too.

We plan to visit once every other week until visitation is restored. Those with respiratory issues watched them through the windows as we brought them by.

It really blessed us all.

2020 white level member

“Let’s make the others want to be like us” Dabo Swinney!!

The best is yet to come!! I’m so grateful for Clemson Football going into the 2020’s


Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[3]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 1:26 AM
    Reply

God Bless you, man, and thanks! Such four-footed friends are nothing but love, and do more to heal a lonely, or broken heart than any mask, or medicine could ever accomplish!

Go Tigers!!!


You live up to your username

[3]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 6:54 AM
    Reply

Thanks!!!

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I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.


That is awesome what you are doing.***

[3]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 1:06 PM
    Reply



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Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[2]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 8:29 PM
    Reply

God bless you, HumbleServant.

2020 purple level member

"It is not part of a true culture to tame tigers any more than it is to make sheep ferocious."
--Henry David Thoreau


Well .... data indicates it sucks to get old.***

[2]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 8:54 AM
    Reply



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It's certainly not for wussies!***

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 9:26 AM
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2020 white level member

Re: It's certainly not for wussies!***

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 9:54 AM
    Reply

You gotta be tough to get old!

2020 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

What I want to see is a comparison or line chart

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 9:35 AM
    Reply

that compares the number of tests given with the number of positive tests. There's no way you can reasonably deny that the more tests you give the more positive results you will have. One reason for this "spike" is simply that we're giving a heckuva lot more tests than we were back in March or April. Shoot, there are lines going around the blocks of places where they are doing free testing.

And why are people getting tested? Because they're symptomatic? No, they'd go to the doctor or MinuteClinic for that. They're going because they're scared and because they're asymptomatic. So as the fear quotient increases (thank you, media and governor), more people who are asymptomatic will get tested, and as more are tested, we'll see more positive test results.

Does that mean that more people are getting it now than were in March or April? Nope. Just means that more are getting tested.

The most important figures are numbers of hospitalizations required and deaths. Hospitalizations are the best number because they're more immediate. People don't die from this overnight. People who are dying now could have contracted this as long ago as April, and definitely June. People don't catch this and die - that's a fact. Last I checked, DHEC showed that our statewide hospital bed utilization was 75% capacity. Of that 75%, approx 12% (going off of memory - could be +/- 2 or 3%) were COVID-19 patients, so we're still seeing very few being hospitalized.


They do percent positive graphs at the bottom

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 11:31 AM
    Reply

of this page, if that’s what you’re asking for. We were around 3-5% back in May. So the number of tests has definitely gone up, but so has the percent positive.

https://www.scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19


2020 orange level member

also "new cases" as given by CDC is a lie

[2]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 9:47 AM
    Reply

CDC reports both tests for an active infection and tests that detect antibodies as NEW cases. Yes they actually count people who show antibodies who previously had the virus as a new case when they are tested. This is one of the reasons for the numbers we are seeing. Lots of people are getting antibodies tests. They have been asked to only report active infections as new cases by the GAO but have not yet changed their presentation.


Re: also "new cases" as given by CDC is a lie

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 11:44 AM
    Reply

Good info. I don’t think DHEC is doing that though. They state on their site that positive antibody tests are pretty reliable for a past infection but should not be relied on as the only test for a current one. I could be wrong though.

https://www.scdhec.gov/health-professionals/public-health-laboratory-phl/covid-19-testing-information-phl/antibody-testing-covid-19


2020 orange level member

Pig

Re: For anyone interested in actual SC numbers

[1]
Posted: Jul 2, 2020 8:11 PM
    Reply

I've been looking at these same numbers over the last couple of months. Thanks for putting them in a spreadsheet for us. This paints a different picture than what is reported.
I would love to see the breakdown of Flu mortality in the same format. With the exception of more infant deaths, I would bet the numbers would mirror the Covid numbers. I just hope they get a vaccine soon to decrease the deaths as well as cases.


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