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Topic: Detailed Recruiting Outlook
Replies: 30   Last Post: Jun 22, 2018 4:50 PM by: ClemTiger2011
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Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[22]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 9:39 AM
 

I keep up with recruiting pretty consistently and see the concern on the board. I wanted to put this together to calm some folks down.

We essentially have 17 committed prospects and I feel strongly that we will get commitments from Joe Ngata (4 Star WR), Vonta Bentley (4 Star LB), Jalyn Phillips and Ryan Thornton (both high 3 Star S). That puts us at 21 spots out of roughly 30 for this class.

Now keep in mind that our staff has spent this spring building the base of this class. These 3 stars (and 4/5 stars) are all high character guys who will keep Clemson’s chemistry at the levels we as fans have been used to for the past decade. Many of these guys absolutely have high upside and could become the next Beasley, Jarrett, or Renfrow. The fact is though that you need more 4/5 stars on a team than 3 stars to win championships. That’s where an elite 2019 campaign and a legit shot at a national title come into play.

We have not allowed official visits for a reason. The elite recruits wait until late in the cycle to make their decision and burning OVs early is a shortsighted move by desperate coaches. We got burned by Cade Mays using the early Aov approach last year. When our team is undefeated, ranked #1-2, and on their way to a 4th straight CFP we’ll have these elite guys on campus and ready to commit.

We still have legitimate shots at landing these elite players.

RB Noah Cain
TE Hudson Henry
OT Darnell Wright
OT Devontae Dobbs
DT Tyler Davis
DT Travon Walker
DT Faatui Tuitele
DT DeMarvin Leal
DE Nolan Smith
DE Zach Harrison
LB Quav Crouch
LB Nakobe Dean
DB Andrew Booth

Will we get all these guys? No. But we have ~10 spots to fill and I think the majority of those spots will go to high 4 Star and 5 Star players like those above. My guess is that this class ends with...

(1) 2 Star - Punter Aiden Swanson
(11) 3 Stars
(13) 4 Stars
(5) 5 Stars (Ladson, an OT, a DE, a LB, and Booth)

That puts us at a .6 blue chip ratio and EXACTLY where we want to be with high upside/character 3 Star players


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 9:52 AM
 

Thank you for this.


Didn't understand a word you just posted

[4]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 9:54 AM
 

Panic now...


Re: Didn't understand a word you just posted

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:03 AM
 

Good info. Read this coot trolls.

2018 purple level member

Re: Didn't understand a word you just posted- its code

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:56 AM
 

for "we're doomed". ;)

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[2]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:16 AM
 

FWIW the 2013 and 2014 classes were the foundation of our NC team and our star average was around a 3.3 for both of those so I’m not really concerned. We’ve proven that we can wait on higher rated prospects the past few classes, so if our staff hands out an offer to some one lower rated at this point in the cycle I trust their evaluation.

2018 student level member

Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:19 AM
 

Great post. More people need to learn about the Blue Chip Ratio. It is pretty automatic about predicting teams in line to win the title.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[2]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:26 AM
 

For those wondering...

The blue chip ratio is the number of 4/5 Star players on a teams roster divided by the 85 scholarship players on a roster

No team has ever won a championship with a blue chip ratio less than .5.

Essentially, history says you need at least 43 4/5 star players on a roster at all times to compete for a national championship. Clemson will have no problem maintaining that level of talent during the foreseeable future.


What is Alabama’s blue chip ratio?

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:31 AM
 

Comparable to ours?

2018 white level member

Re: What is Alabama’s blue chip ratio?

[2]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:36 AM
 

We are comparable to Alabama in some ways , but different in quite a few WONDERFUL ways... i believe we evaluate talent very well and coach up that talent beautifully!!


Re: What is Alabama’s blue chip ratio?

[4]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:39 AM
 

https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

That is from 2017 but you can see Alabama was a ridiculous .80 while Clemson was .56

O31-0 was .71 fwiw

Its why Alabama will be ranked #1 in the preseason polls regardless of their roster turnover. They’re a recruiting behemoth.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:29 AM
 

I agree with the main sentiment of the post and thank you for compiling all the information. My main concern is that right now we are on the outside looking in for most of the names on that list. There's plenty of time to make up that ground but where it currently stands a lot of those guys are headed elsewhere. I know we have great recruiters so it's an uphill but not impossible climb and having another excellent season can go a long way with that too.

And before everyone jumps down my throat I do like a lot of the guys that are already committed that are CURRENTLY sitting at 3 stars (several will pick up another star as they have senior film) so this could very well be a moot point come fall as new rankings come out.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:34 AM
 

Can’t argue with anything you said there. However, I do think the combination of our great recruiters, industry best OV experience, and upcoming season will make Clemson an incredibly desirable place for recruits when it comes time to commit. Having such a large and growing pool of talented players with some interest will only help us too.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:34 AM
 

Thanks clemtiger2011- i second this post, great job- TU


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 10:45 AM
 

I can’t help but think that the staff has had to settle simply to make numbers. To BornATiger’s point, we’re just not in great position with a lot of remaining 4/5-Star guys. You can’t sit back and not take anyone when you have, what, 27-30 spots to fill? You need warm bodies on the roster.

I don’t think there’s cause to panic and I don’t think that some of these guys won’t turn into great players, but it’s a bit concerning that a class this big won’t measure up to our previous ones, especially when you consider our run of success. My real concern is Georgia. For every 4/5-star kid they take, it’s one less target for us to get.

2018 white level memberbadge-donor-15yr.jpg

Making the total #s

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:01 AM
 

Have wondered about that too. Since a lot of your 85 never see the field in a serious game I wonder if we really need to fill ALL the open slots. Would we be better off saving a few for next year?

Interesting comment from the article posted on the blue chip ratio:

"The Tigers are also the most picky team in the country on the trail this year, regularly turning away good players because of space constraints."


Re: Making the total #s

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 3:58 PM
 

That was last years article right? I read it as they were being picky with the 18 class... I looked for a date when the article was written and didn't see one. I know I've been chewed up and spit out about my concern with uga over the last two recruiting cycles but I think it has hurt us - we were winning those recruits over Richt. Not sure what ks is giving them or telling them but it must be shut down. We've effetely shut down fla st for the most part and too bad jumbo isn't there to make a mess out of a super class anymore but the last 3 yrs all our comp was ohio st and bama. many more players now - including a penn st on the rise but hopefully that steals away from ohio and mich more than us.

great article !!! Let me temper my statement by saying what I've always said, I'm sure the coaches are 10 steps ahead of us all the time and I truly believe Dabo is laying the blueprint for CFB future programs, not bama.


Go Tigers !!!

2018 orange level member

Certainly not time for Chicken Little


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:02 AM
 

And if there was any year that we could take some chances on raw and underrated guys it's this one. We've got room in the class to take "developmental" prospects that can turn into great players with a year or two of weights and teaching from our great staff.


You are right about our current commitments...


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:10 AM
 

I trust the coaching staff said evaluations more than the recruiting services

However, most of the potential 5* guys you mentioned are longshots. I'd love to be wrong, but I definitely don't see us landing a 5* OL or a 5* DE. Crouch is our best shot at a 5* LB

2018 purple level member


Re: You are right about our current commitments...


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:30 AM
 

We can agree to disagree and I respect your opinion! But I hope I’m right :)


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:13 AM
 

30 players? I don't think I've seen that. I thought you only have 25 you can take, but with extra scholarships, transfers etc, 28 at the MAX.

Where is 30 coming from? You could be right, I just am curious how thats possible.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:18 AM
 

You can assign early enrollees to count as the previous year's class which was very small so in theory we could take more than 30.


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:22 AM
 

So since we had 17 last year, we can count 8 towards that total and sign 33 overall? That sounds like an aggressive amount but I'm cool with it. Bring em all!


Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:25 AM
 

you can count early enrollers on the previous class up to 5 total. So the maximum we can sign is 30

2018 student level member

Re: Detailed Recruiting Outlook


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:29 AM
 

All these guys are right about backdating early enrollees. The 28 max number you’re thinking of appears to be conference rules for the SEC and Big 10 to help limit the number of players who get processed.

https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football-recruiting/2017/1/31/14348104/college-football-recruiting-class-limits-national-signing-day


I believe you're spot on about the chemistry element.


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 11:59 AM
 

With the large influx of new faces that 2019 will produce, plus the exodus of a similar number of salty vets, placing high emphasis on character guys early as we've done will help ensure that the culture and ethos of what Dabo has built here over the past decade doesn't take a step back. That's a lot of turnover upcoming, including a tremendous swath of team leaders leaving after 2018. I really couldn't ask for more at this point considering how many spots we have remaining and the quality of the targets we're pursuing.

2018 white level member

I'd be ecstatic if we got a 5* OT.***

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 12:06 PM
 




Re:There are only 2 left.....


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 2:49 PM
 

neither project to Clemson.

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CompositeRecruitRankings?InstitutionGroup=HighSchool&PositionGroup=O-LINE

some fairly high 4-star guys as a reach to Clemson. Mostly guards though

2018 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg


Re:There are only 2 left.....

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 4:50 PM
 

Neither have made it to Clemson yet either but I expect both will make unofficial visits before the season (AIC!?) and official visits during or after it. They have shown some interest and I think we’re in great position to make a move for each. I will admit a 5 Star OT is the most orange colored portion of my projection.


And 2020 class is already off to a good start.***


Posted: Jun 22, 2018 2:57 PM
 



military_donation.jpg

I like this and I say again some plays benefit by recruiting early. Others by waiting

[1]
Posted: Jun 22, 2018 4:48 PM
 

The problem is recruits must decide which is to their advantage.

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