»
Topic: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)
Replies: 21   Last Post: May 25, 2019 6:24 AM by: partsunknown
[ Tiger Boards - Recruiting ]
Start New Topic
Replies: 21  

Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)

[19]
Posted: May 18, 2019 8:19 PM
    Reply

After Kobe Pryor's commitment today, our 2020 class now has 16 total recruits. Using the 24/7 composites that averages Rivals, ESPN and 24/7's proprietary ratings, we now have a total of 289.81 points with each recruit averaging 95.35.

I fully realize that recruiting ratings are far from a perfect indicator of future performance, but there's no denying that the schools that rank the best in recruiting are much more likely to be in the national title hunt that those that don't. There are of course outliers that recruit great like USC and FSU that fail to meet expectations as well as those that recruit average but tend to perform well in most years (Wisconsin, Michigan State). Also, my analysis does get quite heavy in the numbers, but it is something that I find interesting. If you don't like analytics and/or recruiting ratings, you don't have to read it. I just wanted to include that disclaimer to hopefully ward off any negative comments.


Prior to this year, our best class on paper was our 2018 class of 17 commits with 283.67 points. Not only was that our most points ever, but it was our best ever in terms of average rating per recruit at 93.45. We had five 5-star recruits in that class. It was only ranked 7th nationally due to the size of only 17 recruits, and the first 25 recruits are used to evaluate a class.

Admittedly, I am not sure how many total recruits we will be taking in 2020, but given the pending transfers of Feaster and Shaq Smith, it will be larger than anticipated a couple months ago. Regardless of the what the final number ends up being, there's no question that we will be taking at least a handful additional players (It would be much appreciated if anyone has a more accurate number).


Now let's compare this class to other recent classes both of our and compared to other national powers.

In most years, there tends to be an average of 2-3 classes that end up having over 300 points (or really close to 300). Our current total of 289 for our first 16 recruits would already be good enough for 3rd to 5th nationally in most years. That makes it not only our best class ever in terms of total points, but it is sure to be our highest ranked class ever going by the 24/7 composite (our 7th ranked 2018 class is our best). As many have pointed out, this 2020 class will likely force Dabo to retire his pitch about how Clemson has never had a #1 class. Even if it were to end up not being #1, it will be far and away our best class.

On their website 24/7 has a really neat tool called 'class calculator' that allows you to predict how the class will shape up by adding other potential recruits into the mix. I've wasted far too much time for an adult looking at high school football players trying to guess how it will shake up. Although we don't know exactly who else will be joining between now and Feb 2020, there seems to be a somewhat reliable range of possibilities. Barring something extremely unlikely like us not getting any additional recruits, the likely range is between 305-320 total points. There are several different ways to arrive at those numbers. The high end appears to be somewhere around 325 if we continue to hit on all of our top targets until we run out of room.

From a historical perspective, there are really five classes that separate themselves as the best ever (based on recruiting ratings). These are 2010 Florida (28 recruits, 324.62), 2017 Bama (29, 323.87), 2018 UGA (26, 323.31), 2014 Bama (26, 319.71) and 2013 Bama (26, 319.50). There were also an additional 8 classes that have had between 310-317 points.

The bottom line is that this 2020 class will not only be far and away the best class in Clemson history, but it will almost certainly be top 10-15 in terms of all-time classes. It has a really good shot at being top 5 all-time, and an outside shot at breaking the record if we were to somehow end up needing to recruit 25 players. It will almost certainly be the best class in history for a smaller class if we end up with less than 25.

Our current average rating per player of 95.35 would easily be the best in history, but it will likely go down at least a little as the class fills up. Landing Jordan Burch would go a long way in making sure that the 2020 class does indeed set the record for highest average recruit rating. The current record is 2017 Ohio State at 94.59 followed by 2019 Bama at 94.38, 2018 UGA at 94.23 and 2018 USC at 94.23. There have been 7 other classes that averaged between 93.50 and 94.00 per player. Interestingly, our 2018 class of ours is currently 12th best historically at 93.45 per player.


All of this is extremely impressive as it is, but there are a couple of other important factors that make this even more impressive and exciting. First, as of a couple weeks ago, the Clemson coaches had only offered a total of 98 scholarships in 2020. That means that not only have we already hit on just under 20 percent of the players we offer, but we are offering considerably less than other top tier programs like Bama, Georgia and Ohio State who have offered between 190-230 scholarships. That fact alone sets a Clemson offer apart from the other competitors in how much more exclusive a Clemson offer truly is. There was the recent story about the 5 star defensive lineman out of Tennessee that told reporters that Clemson told him that they would have to back off of his recruitment because the number of spots along the Dline is nearly full. What other program would ever back off of a 5 star recruit that they had a great chance at landing rather than somehow 'finding' a scholarship for that player? What other program in the country has as many former walk-ons end up earning scholarships? Heck, what other program allows anywhere close to as many players to play meaningful snaps in the games?

The other thing that is vital to mention is that even though Dabo's classes have ranged around 20th for his first few years, around 15th for a couple years, and around 10th for the past several, the on-field results speak for themselves. There has been no other team that has achieved the same level of success without having consistent top 5 recruiting (i.e., Bama, Ohio State, UGA). Oklahoma is the only other program that manages to win consistently without top 5 recruiting, but as we know too well, they aren't quite on the level of Clemson.

As much as I understand the importance of remaining humble and hungry (specifically for the players) as well as the value of being able to play the underdog card, for the first time in my life not only do I think we have a chance to win another national championship, but I actually would almost expect us to win another one in the next few years. That doesn't mean that it's any less exciting and amazing of an accomplishment, but it's just an indicator of where Dabo and company have elevated us as a program.

If we were able to win 2 national titles and go 55-4 since 2014 with recruiting that has been 10-15th nationally, just think about the possibilities if and when we begin to recruit #1 nationally. As Dabo and many others have pointed out, the best really is yet to come and there really is 'something in them thar hills.'


Thanks for taking the time to read it.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Fun read for sure but you missed a math variable...


Posted: May 18, 2019 8:35 PM
    Reply

ratings will not be complete till Feb of 2020 -

rest assured that all the SEC commits will experience an "insane season" and our commits will drop unexplainably in the ratings....

Call this a Public Service Announcement...

2019 white level member

Re: Fun read for sure but you missed a math variable...


Posted: May 18, 2019 10:15 PM
    Reply

Honestly, I don't subscribe to the argument that the rating of recruits improve specifically because they are verbally committed to an SEC school. It's more of a potential bump after they are recruited by powerhouse programs. If a recruit picks up an offer or is more heavily recruited by the likes of Auburn, LSU, Bama, Clemson, FSU, UGA, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Michigan, etc., then they would be more likely to be re-evaluated than a recruit that was to begin to receive additional attention only from SEC schools.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

One other thing...


Posted: May 18, 2019 10:18 PM
    Reply

If you follow recruiting closely you will see that many of the guys that we have been recruiting tend to be rated much higher as signing day approaches, especially in this current class. Either good coaching staffs like ours are able to identify talent earlier than the recruiting services (which is what I expect), or the 'experts' bump players up due to the school(s) that are recruiting them.

Whichever the case may be, we would benefit from both possibilities.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:04 PM
    Reply

You wrote:

given the pending transfers of Feaster and Shaq Smith, it will be larger than anticipated a couple months ago

Please explain how two seniors leaving early will impact the class size when both guys would be gone before the 2020 class arrives on campus?


Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:14 PM
    Reply

Shaq Smith wasn't a senior, at least in terms of eligibility, so his departure still gives us some room.

2019 student level member

Slight correction.

[2]
Posted: May 18, 2019 10:12 PM
    Reply

Correction, given the transfer of Shaq Smith and retirement of Noah Dehond, our 2020 class will be larger than it we would have known 2 months ago.

Is that better???

If you're gonna try to call someone out for a minor error in a lengthy post like that, you could at least take the time to make sure what you were calling me out on about Shaq Smith was accurate.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Slight correction.


Posted: May 18, 2019 10:46 PM
    Reply

cornstock said:

Correction, given the transfer of Shaq Smith and retirement of Noah Dehond, our 2020 class will be larger than it we would have known 2 months ago.

Is that better???

If you're gonna try to call someone out for a minor error in a lengthy post like that, you could at least take the time to make sure what you were calling me out on about Shaq Smith was accurate.



So accuracy is dependent on the length of the post? Coaches factor in some level of attrition in the number so a guy leaving here or there does not automatically add to the size of the class


Gawd

[1]
Posted: May 18, 2019 11:34 PM
    Reply

You remind me of my 13 yo daughter. So here goes:

"You're right. So sorry. Apparently everyone else with more experience and education has just been getting it wrong all this time. We're so lucky you came along with this valuable insight."

2019 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:07 PM
    Reply

Good read...thanks for posting!


the only reason Dabo was pitching we've never had a #1 class


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:14 PM
    Reply

was because he knew he had the number 1 class coming. He never said that till last year.

2019 orange level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpgbadge-donor-05yr.jpg


One thing that stood out to me


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:19 PM
    Reply

Is that the top class ever by average rating was 2010 Florida .
That class never won an SEC Championship or anything of significance that I can recall .

Goes to the point that rankings/ratings are subjective at best and that player development and coaching are as important as any other factor in winning big in CFB .

Good poast .


Message was ranked poorly by: Tigerdug23®


2019 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg

DB23


Re: One thing that stood out to me


Posted: May 18, 2019 10:23 PM
    Reply

Looking at the top classes, it shows you that all of the most successful programs tend to recruit at a very high level. There are plenty of blue chip recruits that don't pan out in the long run, but the likelihood of a 4 or 5 star being successful in college and making it to the NFL is much higher than 2 and 3 star recruits.

I would add that even the most talented roster in the world even if the ratings were 100 percent accurate cannot overcome substandard coaching and program turmoil. That would be the case for programs like Florida and USC for the past decade since Pete Carroll left. Conversely, even the best coaches in the world cannot regularly contend for championships with subpar talent.

I completely agree that having good coaches that are able to get the most out of their players and coach them up so to speak is the single most important factor in determining success. Having talent is still extremely important though.

badge-donor-05yr.jpg

Re: One thing that stood out to me


Posted: May 25, 2019 6:24 AM
    Reply

10x more likely-approx


We are already getting recruits that Bama wants

[1]
Posted: May 18, 2019 9:19 PM
    Reply

but after Saban retires all of the recruits that he was reeling in are still going to want to play for a championship team and I see us benefiting even more when that happens.


Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:22 PM
    Reply

Great post!! Thanks for taking the time to compose all of the stats - and for posting....

2019 purple level member

This old fart says


Posted: May 18, 2019 9:29 PM
    Reply

it's a great time to be a tiger!

BOOYAAAAAAAA!

2019 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg




The definition of awesome!


Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 18, 2019 11:05 PM
    Reply

There is a flaw in the recruiting rankings. All positions are not created equal. QB is the single most important position. We have excelled at that position, which is why our classes have been better than our ranking would indicate. DL also is important, and we have excelled there as well.

2019 white level memberbadge-donor-10yr.jpg

ESPN Or Someone....


Posted: May 18, 2019 11:15 PM
    Reply

Did a ranking of the 2014 class in terms of wins etc...of course Clemson was #1 followed by 'Bama.

At Clemson we've had players that were 4 or 5 stars that never really panned out and of course we've had "No Star " players like Hunter that were Super Stars when they left.

The best is truly yet to come...thank God we are cycling out...when we start to cycle in again it's going to be awesome..LOL


Worth noting....

[1]
Posted: May 18, 2019 11:33 PM
    Reply

Will Muschamp took the best recruiting class ever and proceeded to go 29-21 (if my math is correct) over the next four years, including a 7-6 season (year 1) and a 4-8 season (year 3). He was subsequently fired after 4 years when Jim McElwain then took over and won SEC Coach of the Year along with an Eastern Division title in his first year (2015).

I’m trying not to laugh at the Gamec0ck fans currently believing Muschamp will lead them to glory. ??


That Georgia program

[1]
Posted: May 19, 2019 6:40 AM
    Reply

Is a real head-scratcher... ;)


Re: Current 2020 class in a historical perspective (really long)


Posted: May 25, 2019 6:14 AM
    Reply

Great read


Replies: 21  
[ Tiger Boards - Recruiting ]
Start New Topic
2709 people have read this post