Another playoff analysis, because 6,317 just aren't enough.

Oct 18, 2017, 1:42 PM

Let's not make assumptions about Team X will beat Team Y, or Team Z usually chokes, etc. Let's look at certainties. This is the current AP ranking:

1. Alabama
2. Ped State
3. Georgia (hocch-ptooey)
4. TCU
5. Wisconsin
6. 0310 State
7. Clemson
8. Miami
9. Oklahoma

Remember what I said about certainties? Well forget all that. We're just going to have to deal with two reasonable assumptions:

1. Assume the first playoff ranking is the same as the current AP poll. It should be close. If we're ninth or higher (and dadgum we certainly should be), this analysis still holds.
2. Assume the favorites win every game. This is a worst-case assumption. If the favorites don't win, it actually helps us.

Let's go week by week.

10/21 - No teams ahead of us play each other, all favorites win, and no change in the polls.
10/28 - #2 Ped State plays #6 0310 State. Whoever loses will drop below us. Now we're sixth. Assume Ped State wins.
11/4 - No teams ahead of us play each other, all favorites win, and no change in the polls.
11/11 - No teams ahead of us play each other, all favorites win, and no change in the polls.
11/18 - No teams ahead of us play each other, all favorites win, and no change in the polls.
11/25 - No teams ahead of us play each other, all favorites win, and no change in the polls.
12/2a - Wisconsin plays Ped State for the B1G title. Whoever loses will drop below us. Now we're fifth.
12/2b - This is where it gets disturbing: the SEC title game. If Alabama landblasts Georgia, Georgia will drop below us and we'd be fourth -- and in the playoff. If it's close, or if Georgia actually wins, it's possible the loser may not drop below us and we'd remain fifth -- and out.

So, worst case, our path to the playoff is thus:

1. Win out. Duh.
2. 'Cuse needs to lose. The committe put 0310 State in last year as a non-conference champ and they were dispatched with exuberant ease. Would they give us that same benefit of the doubt and put us in as National Champs of 2016, but not Conference Champs in 2017? Probably, but I don't want to find out. 'Cuse needs to lose.
3. Someone above us needs to stumble. All those teams have several opportunities to do just that:

Alabama - Pfft. They play in the SEC. They skate.
Ped State - 10/21 vs #19 Michigan; 10/28 @ #6 0310 State; 11/4 @ #18 Michigan State; B1G title game.
Georgia - 11/11 @ #21 Auburn; SEC title game.
TCU - 11/11 @ #9 Oklahoma; 12/2 Big XII title game.
Wisconsin - 11/18 vs #19 Michigan; B1G title game.
0310 State - 10/28 vs #2 Ped State; 11/11 vs Michigan State; 11/25 @ #19 Michigan; B1G title game.

There'll be a lot of nail-biting between now and early December. 'Specially if 'Cuse beats Miami this weekend and there are no upsets in subsequent weeks. Can't wait to see how this team responds.

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Another playoff analysis, because 6,317 just aren't enough.

TU for 63-17.***

What happens if

Then we're in! All other things being equal.

Absolutely. They hate us more than they love themselves.

Re: Another playoff analysis, because 6,317 just aren't enough.

I'm entering all of your data into this processing unit...

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